Finance vs. Lease the R2 -- the math

[ribuck97]

I’m kinda debating whether to buy outright or lease.
I usually buy my cars.
I can afford to pay cash.
But I am thinking I can do better if I invest that money over three years even while paying as admittedly pricey lease cost. Maybe.
And leasing does offer a bit of protection if the residual vs market price becomes problematic. Hmmm.

Without tax, a 5yr loan from Rivian at 5.79% requires ~$15k down to equal $829/mo payment. Balance after 3yr is ~$19k. Would you be underwater… no..

R1 is a bad example to use IMO. The higher the cost of the car the more there is to depreciate. $100k cars have a lot of room to go down in value. An R2 is only $50-$60k...can only drop so much.

Also with EV depreciation historical trends you must take out COVID pricing in the 2022-2023 time frame to get realistic future depreciation. The media loves writing articles about how badly EV's depreciate but ignored the crazy market factors at that time that applied to all cars really. People were paying $70k+ for new Model Y's at that time. RAV4's at the Toyota dealership near me were going for $50k! A foreseeable massive drop in value once the COVID spike ended.

Very goods points.

The reason I included the current R1 lease offer residual range is because the 59.5% residual is the R1 Dual Standard. One should expect the residual to be higher. A 10%+ increase is very good in my opinion.

So we turn to the AI gods to scrape all of our info to try and provide backing factual information:

1) For a 36-month / 10,000 miles per year lease in today's U.S. market, the average residual value is roughly 55%–60% of MSRP, depending on vehicle type.

A useful rule of thumb is:

Vehicle Type - Typical 36-Month / 10k Residual
Sedans - 52%–60%
Compact SUVs - 55%–62%
Pickup trucks - 58%–68%
Luxury vehicles - 47%–58%
EVs - 40%–55%
Overall market average - 57%–58%

2) The actual avg 3 year actual depreciation based on used car prices over the last 25 years is sitting at 40%.

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[SuFFo]

I'm just going to buy through Financing. Question now is do I want to put down a big down payment to get the monthly lower or just invest that money instead. I really dislike having an additional big monthly payment. My wife has schools first so I can likely use that to beat out what APR I get from Rivian so might be best to go that route and invest the money.

 

[Eric9610]

I have seen no rate from a credit union below 5.49 on 60 months.

 

[doit82]

We do in VT.....

 

[fratpack]

Torn. On one hand saving $8K with financing is great. On the other, you are taking a risk with LiDar coming out, uncertain EV markets, etc. even after 3 years EV technology would be outdated yet again.

Crazy to think that I leased my 2024 Gen R1S Quad 2 years ago for $929/mo pre-tax, 36 mo/10K yr, and $0 down (plus first months payment + fees). The R2 performance lease will be more than that.

 

[Ecupip]

Navy Fed is showing 4.29% for up to 60 months.

 

[fratpack]

Yes, I agree. The lease payment seems quite high for a $60K vehicle. My assumption is that they're intentionally structuring the lease program to encourage more customers to purchase or finance instead. Doing so would reduce the number of lease returns and help avoid building up a large inventory of used R2s being sold at significantly lower prices, which could ultimately impact new vehicle sales.

For comparison, I currently lease a Genesis GV70 Prestige EV, which had an MSRP of around $75,000, and my payment is $650 per month.

What concerns me now is the growing list of add-ons. I configured my vehicle with the Coastal White interior, which is already a $1,000 option. Now we're hearing about ceramic window and sunroof tinting, which could add another $1,500. Both of these options will increase the lease payment even further.

I live in Florida, so high-quality heat-rejection tint is practically a necessity. My biggest issue is that these additional costs weren't communicated earlier in the process. I think Rivian should have been more transparent from the beginning so customers could make more informed decisions about pricing and affordability.

 

[Jonger1150]

Let's be real here. Most people will buy this at 84 months.

 

[ribuck97]

Yes, I agree. The lease payment seems quite high for a $60K vehicle. My assumption is that they're intentionally structuring the lease program to encourage more customers to purchase or finance instead. Doing so would reduce the number of lease returns and help avoid building up a large inventory of used R2s being sold at significantly lower prices, which could ultimately impact new vehicle sales.

For comparison, I currently lease a Genesis GV70 Prestige EV, which had an MSRP of around $75,000, and my payment is $650 per month.

What concerns me now is the growing list of add-ons. I configured my vehicle with the Coastal White interior, which is already a $1,000 option. Now we're hearing about ceramic window and sunroof tinting, which could add another $1,500. Both of these options will increase the lease payment even further.

I live in Florida, so high-quality heat-rejection tint is practically a necessity. My biggest issue is that these additional costs weren't communicated earlier in the process. I think Rivian should have been more transparent from the beginning so customers could make more informed decisions about pricing and affordability.

Current Genesis promo: 36mo/30k lease of $56,435 MSRP ($36,496 or 64.6% residual) is $619/mo pre-tax. This includes $4300 cap cost and a $2500 lease incentive. This is without any typoe of dealer discound or dealer APR markup. Note I "think" the base APR on this come to around 5.25%.

I could very easily see a customer getting a $650/mo lease. A lot of R1S owners have great leases due to incentives and tax credits of $7500 in 2025.

Rivian's residual matches but the APR current is around double (you are getting "free" launch package) and there is no incentive offered.

 

[Friar619]

I have seen no rate from a credit union below 5.49 on 60 months.

SDCCU: 4.69% for up to 66 months.

https://www.sdccu.com/rates/vehicle-loan-rates/

Or you can try penfed credit union: 4.44% for 60 months

https://www.penfed.org/auto?utm_id=...t=auto-loans_no-product-associated_exact_used

 

[Eric9610]

SDCCU: 4.69% for up to 66 months.

https://www.sdccu.com/rates/vehicle-loan-rates/

Or you can try penfed credit union: 4.44% for 60 months

https://www.penfed.org/auto?utm_id=...t=auto-loans_no-product-associated_exact_used

Reached out to PenFed without account or active military 5.49 is the best they will offer. If I open and maintain a high balance they said no problem.

 

[Friar619]

I haven't heard of this one but they are a federal credit union in parts of Socal:

Logix federal credit union:

https://www.logixbanking.com/rates/vehicle-loans

 

[fratpack]

Current Genesis promo: 36mo/30k lease of $56,435 MSRP ($36,496 or 64.6% residual) is $619/mo pre-tax. This includes $4300 cap cost and a $2500 lease incentive. This is without any typoe of dealer discound or dealer APR markup. Note I "think" the base APR on this come to around 5.25%.

I could very easily see a customer getting a $650/mo lease. A lot of R1S owners have great leases due to incentives and tax credits of $7500 in 2025.

Rivian's residual matches but the APR current is around double (you are getting "free" launch package) and there is no incentive offered.

Yeah, I got mine back in 2024, leases were a lot more managable and incentives were handed out like candy. And on top of that, you could negotiate. Back then people were still on the fence about EV's so the manufacture's wanted to move stock quickly. In the very near future (end of 26, early 27..Toyata, Subaru and others are coming out with 3 new ev's each. It's going to be interesting when the price wars start.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Financing vs. Lease math - by @travisketchum

If you're weighing lease vs finance for the R2, the numbers tell you everything you need to know.

Financing can save you $8,836 over a 36 month term.

Could you please do the math for the Premium and Standard trims with a depreciation of about 60% over 3 years? I think that’s what Rivian has it set at. Thanks.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Definitely not liking the residual for the R2 at $38070. Was thinking of leasing the R2 while I wait for the R3X but not sure it makes financial sense.

I’m in the same boat. Wondering what the numbers would look like for the Premium and Standard R2 trims. My lease is up at the end of 2027, but R3X won’t be available until the end of 2028 at the earliest, according to RJ. And that all hinges on how well the R2 does and how quickly they can get the Georgia Plant up and running.

We also don’t know what the R3X will cost. If it’s tri-motor it’s not going to be cheap. Remember there’s already a $13K difference between the cheapest R2 Standard (single-motor) and the most expensive R2 Performance Launch Edition (dual-motor). There might also be an R2X In store with a tri-motor.

Rivian will have to be really careful when pricing the R3, so it doesn’t cannibalize the R2. They also don’t want to Osborne the R2 with talk of the R3, hence the vague responses.

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