It's July 1, who get's a delivery this month?

[skyote]

I'd love for someone with auto manufacturing experience to weigh in here.

Personally, my outsider opinion/feeling is that it might ramp from 50+ to 400 per week within a couple months. Plus, they could absolutely be prebuilding the skateboards & we've seen images of body parts.

They will definitely be doing significant QA & optimizing processes for the early vehicles, but I think ramp will be quicker than many might expect. Remember, they've built hundreds of vehicles that have been out testing.

They've also hired a lot of people that have done this before, and they have the active involvement of Ford.

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[Hmp10]

I'd love for someone with auto manufacturing experience to weigh in here.

Personally, my outsider opinion/feeling is that it might ramp from 50+ to 400 per week within a couple months. Plus, they could absolutely be prebuilding the skateboards & we've seen images of body parts.

They will definitely be doing significant QA & optimizing processes for the early vehicles, but I think ramp will be quicker than many might expect. Remember, they've built hundreds of vehicles that have been out testing.

They've also hired a lot of people that have done this before, and they have the active involvement of Ford.

You may well be right, and I hope so.

However, Lucid has already built 120 gamma version cars (on top of the 70 beta versions) and is now building around 100 quality validation cars. Also, their head of Manufacturing was the guy who straightened out the Model 3 mess at Tesla and before that was the head of Global Manufacturing at Audi, and he has brought a very experienced team to the key roles under him. And their state-of-the-art paint shop was set up by the German firm that is recognized as the leader in its field. Finally, Lucid (as Atieva) has been building battery packs and powertrains since 2007, so they're old hands at that game.

Of course, Lucid is selling at a higher price point in a luxury niche where top-notch quality will be a life-and-death proposition for them. But I haven't seen any indication that Rivian is approaching quality lightly, either.

 

[jjwolf120]

My guess is that if Rivian is going to be concerned about the quality of its early deliveries, it's also going to ramp up slowly from a relatively low initial production number.

It is all a question of how quickly they can ramp up production. This will depend on how well designed the process is, and what problems they encounter as they ramp up. I remain optimistic that they will have a reasonable production rate by September of 2021. My expectations for July would be no more than tens of vehicles delivered, for August low hundreds of vehicles, and September over a thousand vehicles.

I have no manufacturing experience, so this is a wild as guess on my part.

 

[timf]

You may well be right, and I hope so.

However, Lucid has already built 120 gamma version cars (on top of the 70 beta versions) and is now building around 100 quality validation cars. Also, their head of Manufacturing was the guy who straightened out the Model 3 mess at Tesla and before that was the head of Global Manufacturing at Audi, and he has brought a very experienced team to the key roles under him. And their state-of-the-art paint shop was set up by the German firm that is recognized as the leader in its field. Finally, Lucid (as Atieva) has been building battery packs and powertrains since 2007, so they're old hands at that game.

Of course, Lucid is selling at a higher price point in a luxury niche where top-notch quality will be a life-and-death proposition for them. But I haven't seen any indication that Rivian is approaching quality lightly, either.

All we can do is speculate. Rivian has clearly been building and deploying test vehicles on a regular basis, but they aren't going to provide details on the exact numbers or revision level like Lucid since that's not how Rivian operates.

People will surely be disappointed with how slow initial deliveries ramp up, but short of guides providing everyone with an estimated delivery date it's impossible to tell how fast the ramp will be. Rivian is likely being ultra conservative with their targets, which is why we hear so little from them regarding the delivery timeline. They are afraid of making promises they can't deliver on, so instead they stay silent.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I'd love for someone with auto manufacturing experience to weigh in here.

I've not been involved with a new manufacturer like Rivian before, but we rarely hit production goals early in the production lifecycle. However, if Rivian does have the right group of people it can make a huge difference on if the project struggles at SoP or if it quickly gets to where they expect it to be.

 

[jakef801]

Hey, from the get go, I never expected a mass roll out June 21 (Covid aside). New company, new products, newest industry, etc. But these guys are doing it as best as possible (opposite of the Nikolas of the world). Rivian is up front and honest. As with any new company, you cannot expect Platinum out of the gate, right on time. This reinforces my decision to await the 400 mile R1T version. I knew the earliest subscribers would not get delivery June 21 (again, Covid). Riv has kept rolling strong. I don't care if I get notice of delivery of my R1T for late '22, early '23, mid '23, and so on...I'm just along for the ride. I want my Riv delivered with the kinks, physics, and firware on point. Meanwhile, I've been enjoying 3 kick ass weeks on Bear Lake, UT/ID in my '16 Crew Tundra and boat.

All said, I'm watching for new deliveries and reports. Rivian is the best bet among all EVs!!

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

Hey, from the get go, I never expected a mass roll out June 21 (Covid aside). New company, new products, newest industry, etc. But these guys are doing it as best as possible (opposite of the Nikolas of the world). Rivian is up front and honest.

No, this is demonstrably false.

Rivian set the June 2021 delivery deadline. That wasn’t imposed upon them — they picked the date. So missing it is a failure, plain and simple. And waiting until literally just a few days before the deadline to say “sorry, we’re not going to make it” was a crappy move. Rivian was NOT up front about the situation. Far from it.

If the rumors of an IPO are true, then there needs to be a dramatic shift in how Rivian shares information.

 

[RWerksman]

No, this is demonstrably false.

Rivian set the June 2021 delivery deadline. That wasn’t imposed upon them — they picked the date. So missing it is a failure, plain and simple. And waiting until literally just a few days before the deadline to say “sorry, we’re not going to make it” was a crappy move. Rivian was NOT up front about the situation. Far from it.

If the rumors of an IPO are true, then there needs to be a dramatic shift in how Rivian shares information.

100% agree. The zero approach to comms is bad for us consumers. (i.e. YOU!) I'm not even sure why we're still debating this. They have $1000 of your cash, the least they could have done is let you know that deliveries were going to be delayed 2 days before the initial delivery month, and not buried it in the middle of a press release story that still didn't provide all of the information.

And just to be clear, the current July 2021 date was actually the fourth date that Rivian set. Production was initially set to start in 2019 (with deliveries in 2020), then to 2020, then to June 2021, now to July. Each was a miss, and I don't think we're done yet. That 2022 date for non-LE deliveries is going to be blown unless they start pushing them out simultaneously, which is perhaps even more problematic.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still down for buying one. All of this is a really big turn off though.

 

[jakef801]

To those above, it is what it is. Not life changing for me, even one iota. I'm just along for the "ride". Hope you all get a notice of delivery soon. I'm not hanging on anything. I just wanted the 400 mile battery. If and when it comes, I'll be a happy camper. Meanwhile, see you out in the lakes, rivers, trails, roads, etc.

 

[Gshenderson]

Hey, from the get go, I never expected a mass roll out June 21 (Covid aside). New company, new products, newest industry, etc. But these guys are doing it as best as possible (opposite of the Nikolas of the world). Rivian is up front and honest. As with any new company, you cannot expect Platinum out of the gate, right on time. This reinforces my decision to await the 400 mile R1T version. I knew the earliest subscribers would not get delivery June 21 (again, Covid). Riv has kept rolling strong. I don't care if I get notice of delivery of my R1T for late '22, early '23, mid '23, and so on...I'm just along for the ride. I want my Riv delivered with the kinks, physics, and firware on point. Meanwhile, I've been enjoying 3 kick ass weeks on Bear Lake, UT/ID in my '16 Crew Tundra and boat.

All said, I'm watching for new deliveries and reports. Rivian is the best bet among all EVs!!

Rivian has a RAN site planned for Montpelier, just north of Bear Lake.

 

[DuckTruck]

As Stated before for deliveries to happen we need to have the following items up at a bare minimum:

-Purchasing Portal along with Financing Portal.
-Final Color Options (Unless CS states pick a color and use 7 day policy if you dont like it).
-App (Not needed 100% but as stated several times to track your purchase, use as a key etc at delivery).
-EPA Ratings (Again not needed per say) but would be practically needed from a consumer POV to determine effects of range of certain options.
-Insurance (Not needed, but again as stated on their website would be beneficial to have).
-A Somewhat re-design on a outdated website to show all the information above in a current format.
-Logistics/Representatives to transport Vehicles and local field guides to teach users about vehicles.
-Finalizing car details
-Tour Guides/Programs Setup for road show etc.


I imagine that is just the externally customer facing items, now work your way back and imagine all those internal processes taking place to get all of that delivered. It will be crunch time if none of this is remotely ready. Some how I imagine the first people if in fact they do get July deliveries will be a very personal process with out a lot of resources listed above.

Kanundrum,

While I think your analysis is spot on, when talking to two different Engagement Team members today (about Car and Driver's report), both were adamant that R1T deliveries will begin this month, July of 2021. Maybe these deliveries will be special cases, but both team members were clear that deliveries will be made by the end of July (of 2021, in case anyone wanted the year mentioned....again).

I sure hope they're right! I so want to see these things rolling down the highways, and up and over things.

 

[jakef801]

Rivian has a RAN site planned for Montpelier, just north of Bear Lake.

Sweet. There is a Chargepoint station in Garden City, UT as well.

 

[DuckTruck]

Rivian has a RAN site planned for Montpelier, just north of Bear Lake.

I think that was a great decision on Rivian's part. It's these out of the way places that happen to be along rural/remote byways and highways that will open up the interior and allow cross country travel with greater ease and less anxiety. If we see the proposed charging network Biden's pushing for, the bare spots on the consolidated nationwide charging map will disappear nicely.

 

[DuckTruck]

Indi-freaking-ana?!?

Hey Skyote,

So now I'm confused. When did Bezos move from Sacramento to Indiana?

Quickest move ever!

? ? ?

 

[intimidator]

No, this is demonstrably false.

Rivian set the June 2021 delivery deadline. That wasn’t imposed upon them — they picked the date. So missing it is a failure, plain and simple. And waiting until literally just a few days before the deadline to say “sorry, we’re not going to make it” was a crappy move. Rivian was NOT up front about the situation. Far from it.

If the rumors of an IPO are true, then there needs to be a dramatic shift in how Rivian shares information.

Long time order holder here...June 2021 was not Rivian's original timeline. It was early 2020. Then it was late 2020. Of course Covid factored in to moving to the June 2021 deadline.

Frustrating....I guess I should not have believed the early promises.

I ordered a 400m version, so hopefully by May '22.

PS When GM announced some of their EVs would be 2023 or 2024 people threw eggs....but maybe at least GM is being honest with their timelines. And they will most likely hit them. IMO Rivian is bungling the communication with their POTENTIAL new customers. Lack of communication is as bad as erroneous information.

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