Rival Tesla Model X to end production

[SANZC02]

Earlier in thread, someone was totaling Tesla's production of all vehicles, how many Rivians in comparable analysis?

I think if we are to compare we need to look at them based on years, Tesla started Model S in 2012, in 2015 they delivered around 50.5k vehicles, compare that to Rivian’s 2025 number of 42.3k deliveries.

I’m interested to see how Rivian’s 2026 and 2027 numbers compare to Tesla’s 2016 and 2017 numbers. Tesla had less competition and the benefit of the tax credits for those years and delivered 76.2k in 2016 and 103k in 2017.

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[Eric_partman]

They really should have replaced the S and X with a proper SUV to give the R1S, Cadillac Escalade, Porsche Cayenne EV, and the Germans (Audi, BMW, Mercedes, VW) an option for Tesla fanboys. By completely dropping the S and X without a suitable large SUV, growing families who outgrow the 3 and Y are forced to shop elsewhere.

Then again, if the S and X replacement was an SUV based on CT, then they were smart to do nothing rather than do worse.

This is how I feel too. I honestly would have cross shopped a larger Tesla with my RIS but even the X was too small let alone the Y.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I don't disagree with any of this. But what IS different is that there are more and smarter people working on the Optimus project. What I'm saying is that if Tesla and Musk as an organization has learned from their past and leverages that expertise with Optimus, it's a mistake to count them down and out.

I agree with this in sentiment, but Elon seems to be getting worse in his decision making instead of better. I look at stuff like the CT or the fact he’s going all in on these robots before he has one good enough that people would buy it. I assume Tesla was still making a profit on S and X and shutting down a profit center to replace it with a cost center is bad business.

Although an argument could be made to shutter S and X, the better move would have been an update.

Ever hear of ADM - Arthur Daniels Midland Corporation? Over $30B market capitalization. They are just one of the coporate farming entities capable of funding such applications. Companies like this own the farm, or they work with contract growers to improve productivity and crop quality. Farmers do not necessarily purchase/own expensive farm equipment - it can be provided to them as part of a contract. One common example is certain types of packaging equipment. If the manufacturer contracts to buy XXX Million cartons over a contract period, the cartoning machine is "free". Of course, it's built into the cost of each carton, but it eliminates the capital investment for the manufacturer.

I agree with this 100%. The dude you were responding to doesn’t understand how sophisticated farming equipment has gotten.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I agree with this in sentiment, but Elon seems to be getting worse in his decision making instead of better.

"Reckless abandon" is how I'd sum it up. He is so rich he is convinced that every single thing that pops up in his head is the rightest thing ever. And he doesn't care what anyone else thinks because they are not rich like him. And, therefor, cannot be right like him. Ever.

 

[RivianRiverRat]

Oh boy you’ll never have to drive again
you can buy a model 3 for $150k and it comes with an Optimus chauffeur

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Oh boy you’ll never have to drive again
you can buy a model 3 for $150k and it comes with an Optimus chauffeur

But you'll be rendered jobless and worthless because of AI and robots. Where are you going to get that $150k? Streaming yourself playing video games or Patreon donations from your 1-hour long videos on topics that really should be 3 minutes? Will Onlyfans become the biggest global "employer" of the future? /s

These days is AI this. AI that. Some will at least admit some people will be displaced. What no one is talking about is... in economies that are heavily dependent on consumer spending, what's going to happen when some consumers just fall off the map and can't buy anything? That's already happening in China.

 

[RivianRiverRat]

But you'll be rendered jobless and worthless because of AI and robots. Where are you going to get that $150k? Streaming yourself playing video games or Patreon donations from your 1-hour long videos on topics that really should be 3 minutes? Will Onlyfans become the biggest global "employer" of the future? /s

Pure sarcasm on my part
As soon as R2 comes out you’ll never see me in a Tesla again
I doubt yall would pay much to see me on OF

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Pure sarcasm on my part
As soon as R2 comes out you’ll never see me in a Tesla again
I doubt yall would pay much to see me on OF

Yes I know... but the point remains.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

RE: Tesla's Robot....Boston Dynamics has been at this much longer, the latest iteration with Hyundai clearly smokes everything we've seen so far with Optimus. Hyundai will be deploying them in it's factories this year to start testing. If the future is humanoid robots, my $ would be on Atlas.

Wow, the way that robot moves is pretty impressive. It was like an Outer Limits episode from when I was a kid. Seeing it makes me believe these robots can work, when I saw the Optimus video, it was more comical than anything, how poorly the robot works.

 

[RivianRiverRat]

But you'll be rendered jobless and worthless because of AI and robots. Where are you going to get that $150k? Streaming yourself playing video games or Patreon donations from your 1-hour long videos on topics that really should be 3 minutes? Will Onlyfans become the biggest global "employer" of the future? /s

These days is AI this. AI that. Some will at least admit some people will be displaced. What no one is talking about is... in economies that are heavily dependent on consumer spending, what's going to happen when some consumers just fall off the map and can't buy anything? That's already happening in China.

Spot on with the last paragraph

 

[RivianRocks25]

Had 2 Xs, sold, then bought the R1S. Not looking back! R1s more real range, more space, Gen 1 R1 with Comma does a nice job hands free lane keep with no subscription, less Nazi, less annoying Elon things (stupid Yoke, turn signals on said yoke). Not going to miss the X in the market, other options fill the nitch.

 

[ndmiller]

The Model X and Rivian are not rivals. They're both EV's, but nothing else about them is on the same planet.

 

[Zorg]

First EV was a 2014 S. Owned the whole line up. Sold the X in September and an R1S.

So Tesla bets it all on Robotaxi. I see it as a viable Uber replacement and that's about it. Uber has nearly 10 million drivers worldwide and gross bookings of $50B a quarter. So if Tesla produces 10m Robotaxi and somehow deploys them everywhere, they could potentially get $200B in annual revenue. Seems far fetched to me and weird to abandon personal vehicles at this point. Rivian must be so happy about Elon crazy decisions.

 

[Time2Roll]

"Reckless abandon" is how I'd sum it up. He is so rich he is convinced that every single thing that pops up in his head is the rightest thing ever. And he doesn't care what anyone else thinks because they are not rich like him. And, therefor, cannot be right like him. Ever.

Yes and all Elon has to do is be wrong a few more times while the past successes fade into oblivion.
The whole thing could fold in on itself faster than it was built.

 

[RivianRocks25]

The Model X and Rivian are not rivals. They're both EV's, but nothing else about them is on the same planet.

Having owned two Model X and now a R1S, totally disagree. Want an EV with space for 7 people(we used 5 people setup in this example because of dog) , a golden retriever, said dog's crate, and all gear for a long weekend, have limited options that place the X, R1S and EV9/Ionic 9, and now EscaladeEV as the only choices. So they all compete. The X and R1S are right at the same price ($90-100k new). The Hyundai/Kia options are cheaper and the EscaladeEV in a higher price class.

Honestly from a functionality/space stand point, at this point the 800v, 10-80% in 24 minute charging beast Ionic 9 would be on my shopping list for the same space and less $.

Back in 2020, the Model X was alone in filling this capacity. There are now other options (R1S, Ionic 9, Escalade) all with less Elon lies/ Natzi. Not going to miss the X.

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