? Rivian IPO S1 Filing - reveals preorder numbers, R1S delivery date, Autonomous Subscription Fee & more...

[CommodoreAmiga]

I just mean that we don't know enough about Rivian's plans for the R1S to give estimates of when a 2020 order might be fulfilled.

True even for R1T reservations, right now, unfortunately. (That's the boat I'm in)

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[crashmtb]

They actually provide that level of power or they advertise it? I will also say in southern MN those don’t even exist. It’s a barren wasteland up here

laughs in Manitoban

 

[flabyboy]

laughs in Manitoban

If Tesla would open up its superchargers that would be a huge relief. I did decide to change to max pack. Of course now the stock market is tanking. Wish I had cashed out some of it about a month ago ?‍

 

[jjswan33]

Sincere apologies if this was already asked (I couldn't find it) and let me first say congrats to you R1T holders. I'm excited for you, if not very jealous. Pumped to see them roll off the line, and with all the great reviews coming in....man...I'm excited. So, good for you! (*insert snarky tone). We're close guys and gals.

As an R1S devotee...if the build starts potentially in December...what's out best guess for a delivery in NE US preordered in March 2020? Am I looking at Dec 2022? Summer? Please give me good news

Seeing this IPO release and the global slowdown in supply chain has me worried

My guess is as good as everyone else but I suspect they will do the following:

1. Ramp up of R1T LE vehicles this year. Presumably they will want to ramp up volume with the one product to reach whatever goal it is they have. This is their path to get as many orders out as possible and show what kind of run rate they can achieve.
2. After that first batch of R1Ts ramp up R1S LE production. From their filing maybe the plan is finish step 1 above by ~December.

Who knows after step 2. I would assume it would become a mix of R1T/R1S batch runs to meet orders they want to fill next. Possibly Canadian LE models then Non LE models.

Good news is that by the time R1S models start coming off the line they should have service coverage better distributed such that your location won't be as large of a concern. Assuming it isn't overly rural.

 

[SoCal Rob]

With that said; I am saddened the preorder number is only 50k. I think it speaks to the finite size of the market for 80-100k off-road capable SUV and trucks.

Given the number of friends and family who have looked at me like I am insane, I think it says at least as much about the number of people willing to give a little-known startup EV company $1000 for a reservation on a vehicle with a then-distant delivery date. As reviews are published, Service Centers open, and vehicles are seen on (and off) the road, I think typical people will be more comfortable giving Rivian a deposit.

It wouldn’t surprise me if they get more reservations in the 3 months after September 30th than they did in the 3 years before September 30th. There have been enough automotive startups which never brought vehicles to market that I think a lot of people aren’t willing to be leading edge or even fast followers. Once Rivian establishes that they can delivery a quality product with network of service centers, I think demand will increase significantly.

 

[irfan]

Sorry if it’s been answered but I can’t read 21 pages on mobile that fast …. Just under 50k preorders and an estimate capacity of 150,000 vehicles/yr before ramping higher.
Does that suggest it would be near 150k in the near future? 50k preorders possibly completed in 6months?

 

[fromSf]

1. GM, Ford, Hyundai, and Kia reservations are just $100 deposit where as with Rivian its $1000 deposit so they have lot more serious buyers. Also, personally feel ~50K preorder is very strong for a startup with no brand recognition. I'm sure after the recent media reviews they would have had decent uptick in reservations.

2. If R1S reviews are as good as R1T and as general public see more Rivians on the road its going to help them a lot.

3. As others said, 100K Amazon orders is a solid foundation and it will really help them to have a reliable revenue stream with huge upside potential on commercial segment clients: Fedex, UPS and other last mile operators.

My 2 cents its all about RJ team's execution, quality/reliability and good service.

 

[Aroohoo]

Sorry if it’s been answered but I can’t read 21 pages on mobile that fast …. Just under 50k preorders and an estimate capacity of 150,000 vehicles/yr before ramping higher.
Does that suggest it would be near 150k in the near future? 50k preorders possibly completed in 6months?

Too many variables to know for sure.

150k/year is max capacity with current factory configuration/foot print (this number also included the delivery vans too), it will take time to build up to that. That said, one of the reviewers said that a Rivian exec told him had a very good chance of getting a vehicle delivered next year if he placed an order during/right after the press event.

 

[DanielM]

Sorry if it’s been answered but I can’t read 21 pages on mobile that fast …. Just under 50k preorders and an estimate capacity of 150,000 vehicles/yr before ramping higher.
Does that suggest it would be near 150k in the near future? 50k preorders possibly completed in 6months?

A bit confused, why are they Even talking about opening a new plant in Texas with 50k preorders, knowing that some of those preorders will be cancelled.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

A bit confused, why are they Even talking about opening a new plant in Texas with 50k preorders, knowing that some of those preorders will be cancelled.

It will take years for that facility to be fully operational. The idea is that it will be ready in time for increased demand after several years of brand growth. It will also be a research and battery production facility instead of pure manufacturing like Normal.

 

[irfan]

A bit confused, why are they Even talking about opening a new plant in Texas with 50k preorders, knowing that some of those preorders will be cancelled.

i imagine there is a very long lead time to bring a factory online. They will see the direction of sales and adjust as needed.

 

[MIG]

A bit confused, why are they Even talking about opening a new plant in Texas with 50k preorders, knowing that some of those preorders will be cancelled.

Their shocking and radical business model: They anticipate selling more cars than the 50k preorders.

 

[Zoidz]

A bit confused, why are they Even talking about opening a new plant in Texas with 50k preorders, knowing that some of those preorders will be cancelled.

Fortunately, they have a vision for the future, and not a "50K orders, some will cancel, we are doomed" attitude. That's how visionary entrepreneurs work. They know the demand for EVs is going to steadily build and there is opportunity waiting.

As mentioned, it will take years for this plant to produce a product. For a campus that size, it could take almost year just to get environmental site (land, water, air) reviews completed and approved. If everything moved along at a quick pace, it's 18 months to 24 months to get under roof, and then they can start production line build out, which could take another 6 to 24 months.

Or they could say "We only had 50k orders and some will cancel, let's wait a few years before we plan any expansion." and miss the window of opportunity.

 

[DanielM]

Their shocking and radical business model: They anticipate selling more cars than the 50k preorders.
[/QUOTE
Could also be marketing for their 80 billion dollar valuation IPO.

Their shocking and radical business model: They anticipate selling more cars than the 50k preorders.

It could also be marketing for the 80 billion dollar valuation IPO they were hoping for. ?

 

[Temerarius]

It could also be marketing for the 80 billion dollar valuation IPO they were hoping for. ?

Or... again, the fact it will take 3-6 years to build, tool, train and bring online, and they expect to both be mass producing R1T's, R1S's, R1x, plus an inordinate number of delivery vehicles for Amazon AND other buyers.

But yeah, they could totally be doing it for a short term bump in their IPO stock price.

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