$RIVN closed above its 200 day moving average for the first time

[MidnightRivian]

136,000,000 volume means a squeeze is in the progress. Just kick back and enjoy.

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[Zeusy Zeus]

136,000,000 volume means a squeeze is in the progress. Just kick back and enjoy.

Exactly but it’s already run up a ton how much more can it run up? Thought about loading up on 2k shares earlier but took a pause. Contemplating.

 

[SANZC02]

Exactly but it’s already run up a ton how much more can it run up? Thought about loading up on 2k shares earlier but took a pause. Contemplating.

If it is money just sitting around and is for a long play probably still a good time to get in but, if you are looking for a quick hit on money you may need in the short term you might want to put it somewhere else.

 

[evguy]

I almost never buy individual stocks, but I'm a big believer in RIVN due to the product and market opportunity. Sold my IPO shares last year for the tax loss. Built a new, bigger position between March and June at avg cost of 12.98. Bought another block of shares at 21 last Thursday, bringing total dca to 14.58. Now hoping 25 is the new floor!

 

[cleex024]

I almost never buy individual stocks, but I'm a big believer in RIVN due to the product and market opportunity. Sold my IPO shares last year for the tax loss. Built a new, bigger position between March and June at avg cost of 12.98. Bought another block of shares at 21 last Thursday, bringing total dca to 14.58. Now hoping 25 is the new floor!

yeah im definitely not hoping 25 is new floor lol...lets hope by tomorrow new floor is about $20 then shoot up from there =)

 

[Zoidz]

This is behind a paywall so I know no details. WSJ down on Rivian again.

 

[jjswan33]

This is behind a paywall so I know no details. WSJ down on Rivian again.

Rivian’s Rally Makes No Sense—Unless It Uses It to Raise Cash


Shares in the electric-vehicle startup are on track for a record-breaking streak of gains that it could exploit to shore up its balance sheet


Rivian is having a moment. It needs to seize it.


Shares in the electric-vehicle maker are up an astonishing 84% in just eight trading days to levels last seen in December. If they rise again on Monday, as premarket trading indicates, it will make a record-breaking streak of consecutive gains from a stock better known for losing streaks. Even after the latest rally, Rivian has lost more than two-thirds of the market value at which it went public in November 2021.


There has been some news to justify more optimism, but not much. A week ago, the company reported better-than-expected production and delivery numbers for the second quarter and, importantly, reiterated its guidance for the full year. Amazon.com, Rivian’s top shareholder, also said it is about to receive some of the vehicle maker’s delivery vans in Europe.


Then came bullish commentary from stock analysts. Brokers often revamp their price targets and recommendations after big stock moves for fear of appearing behind the curve. Some media outlets then pointed to broker upgrades as a justification for Rivian’s share-price moves, completing the positive-feedback loop that can improve “sentiment” toward a stock.


On the buy side, individual investors have suddenly piled into Rivian, according to data provider Vanda Research. After Tesla’s rally last month, some may have decided to broaden their bets on the EV sector, including through exchange-traded funds, in the hope of catching the next wave.


Shares in Lucid, Rivian’s closest peer and another recent beneficiary of retail buying, have risen 36% since hitting a low in late June. The rally started after Lucid announced a partnership with British sports-car brand Aston Martin that should bring it at least $450 million in fees and parts sales. Unlike Rivian and Tesla, the company didn’t report second-quarter deliveries.


With retail buying comes the risk of retail selling. “Retail investors often rotate between themes as they get excited by short-term trends,” note the analysts at Vanda Research.


The next wave of news about the companies’ operations will likely come in August, when they report second-quarter earnings. The supply pressures that tripped up car manufacturers last year are easing across the whole industry, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Rivian and Lucid can talk about getting a better handle on production.


The bigger question now is just how many consumers want their expensive EVs. Both companies now say on their websites that vehicles are available in two weeks or less, pointing to short order books.


A wild card for Rivian is market leader Tesla’s long-delayed Cybertruck. To date, Rivian has sold its products into a less competitive category than Lucid, whose luxury sedans compete directly with Tesla’s Model S. But that might change next year as Tesla likely increases output of its quirky take on a pickup truck, due to launch in the coming months.


T he reason why Rivian hasn’t faced much competition to date is that cost-effective electric pickups are hard to engineer. There is a reason why most EVs are aerodynamic sedans or small eco-cars: Trucks require a lot of expensive batteries to shift. The vehicles Rivian sold in the first quarter for roughly $83,000 on average cost it about $150,000 each to manufacture.


Rivian might be wise to tap the market while the appetite for its stock is so strong. It raised almost $12 billion in its IPO and sold $1.5 billion worth of convertible notes in March, topping up its cash balances, but it will need more. It has already burned through roughly $10 billion in its short life as a public company, and analysts don’t expect its quarterly free cash outflow to fall below $1 billion until at least the end of next year.


Given the vast sums required to build EV plants and increase production, startup brands are engaged in a race to secure funding. Those that can finance their way through to the point of positive cash flow will survive, and those that can’t, such as Lordstown Motor, are already falling by the wayside.


Never mind that Rivian’s sudden return to stock-market vogue makes little sense; it is itself an asset the company can and should exploit. Then it just might make sense.

 

[Zeusy Zeus]

This is behind a paywall so I know no details. WSJ down on Rivian again.

They have nothing better to write about. They just make tons of articles for click bait.

 

[mkg3]

Rivian’s demand isn’t just about the backlog. It’s about a structural demand shift to EVs and also away from legacy oems. Rivian is a long term play that’ll ultimately take the stock higher than IPO and previous all time highs.

We all know that you're great Rivian supporter.

You comment about vehicles over $90K being huge needs a context. By 2032, it's estimated that those vehicles will reach $12B+ baed on the reference you've provided. This is the global sales figure for all luxury makes and models. There are lots of specialized competition at these price range. People are looking for exclusivity and refinements, and uniqueness.

The 2022 global auto market was $2.9T, or 79.4M new vehicles. Rivian sold almost 25.000 in 2022 and 50,000+ this year. That's 0.06% (way less than 1%). Even if R2 target is reached, in 2026+, RJ has said they want to produce 1 million vehicles total.

In terms of stock price, or market cap (NPV/outstanding shares, or share price*total shares), going higher than the previous all time high would require something beyond what think Rivian is today.

Rivian would have to either expand their business beyond the current lines, and within their core competencies, or become high volume producer.

Porsche is a luxury brand with low production and various licensing, affluent products and racing to heighten their brand is valued at $110B.

Toyota is the largest producer, in terms of units, that owns not just Toyota group but significant holdings in other industrial companies (e.g., forklifts, steel...) as well as Subaru. its valued at $217B.

Getting past $170+/share (all time high), or market cap past $150B is a tall order for Rivian based on what we know today.

Not saying it will not happen. The enthusiasm took the stock price to the all time high just couple of days after the IPO. I would consider that to be a market anomaly rather than any fundamental or technical reasons. It's just that getting back there, let alone past it, requires much more than R2 success. As someone who owns few thousand Rivian shares, I hope you're right.

 

[SANZC02]

Here is Dan Ives take from last week.

 

[Zeusy Zeus]

Too early for stock offering. Squeeze shorts for 6 Months and then issue stock closer to $44.44.

Where do you see it going from here? I’ll be surprised to see this shorted for 6 months at these levels.

 

[MidnightRivian]

Where do you see it going from here? I’ll be surprised to see this shorted for 6 months at these levels.

Always the same thing. Small fish are exiting and big fish are taking on the new short positions.

It will be a never ending cycle of close old shorts, open new shorts and re-position.

Short volume and volume in general have spiked as seen below.

Only thing that will move this ticker now is tesla earnings moving the whole EV sector and Rivian specific announcements / earnings.

If they miss, big time short back to high teens. If tesla or Rivian beat, jump to $30’s

 

[MidnightRivian]

New short interest numbers will come out in a few days.

FYI - Short volume is not short interest.

 

[DuoRivians]

WSJ’s only saving grace is their bench of economists/journalists that are decent. Otherwise, they’re useless. Add Al Root to that list

 

[Zeusy Zeus]

Always the same thing. Small fish are exiting and big fish are taking on the new short positions.

It will be a never ending cycle of close old shorts, open new shorts and re-position.

Short volume and volume in general have spiked as seen below.

Only thing that will move this ticker now is tesla earnings moving the whole EV sector and Rivian specific announcements / earnings.

If they miss, big time short back to high teens. If tesla or Rivian beat, jump to $30’s

Thank you for that. I agree not many short term catalyst ahead besides Tesla earnings and also if Rivian announces ending exclusivity deal and announcing another major partner like UPS that would be huge!

They will announce a beat in August though that’s why we are getting that big rally now ahead of earnings I think.

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