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RJ's confidence the past few days

COdogman

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Didn't they bring Munro on board?
They did, but everyone fell asleep in the meetings he led so the knowledge was not passed on ?
 

Dark-Fx

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They did, but everyone fell asleep in the meetings he led so the knowledge was not passed on ?
I haven't met him in person yet even though they are pretty close to me. I have met other people I've only listened to at 1.5x speed before and it's definitely a struggle.
 

COdogman

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I haven't met him in person yet even though they are pretty close to me. I have met other people I've only listened to at 1.5x speed before and it's definitely a struggle.
I don’t blame him - It’s not his fault I am impatient. But it WOULD help if he simply talked at 1.5x speed.
 
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rivinv

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I see that you created your new profile here on this forum yesterday. Most members sit back and read and learn for a bit. Then, the posts are related to the vehicle performance... how much they love it or what issues they have... or what concerns them about buying one.

This implies to me that you are likely a troll trying to bring down sentiment with negative opinions. How many other profiles do you have on this forum? What is your stock/option position? Are you an owner?

I am thankful for a lot of replies on this thread, which helped give me perspective of RJ's thinking on the day of earnings call and after.

I am a retail investor with majority portfolio exposure to RIVN.

And like i said, amid all the sell-off, and with no other information forthcoming from Rivian other than the massively messed up earnings call/CNBC interview, Musk's comments were the only positive which is helping me stay sane with my investment; apart from some very insightful replies on this thread.
 

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Rivian Head

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I'm not saying it's not cutthroat, but Kia and Hyundai saw EV sales growth even while others were bailing.
I applaud Hyundai/Kia’s steadfastness. They see the future, and decided to stay on course. But many will view the collapse of many Chinese EV makers as “a canary in a coal mine” for many EV makers, thus will continue to drive down EV stocks. Then there is a fear of arrival of Chinese EV makers on US soil such as BYD who makes fabulous vehicles at substantially lower price point. It reminds me of Toyota and Honda dominating our legacy automakers in 80-90’s. It’s a tough industry.
 

LetsgoRIVN

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I am thankful for a lot of replies on this thread, which helped give me perspective of RJ's thinking on the day of earnings call and after.

I am a retail investor with majority portfolio exposure to RIVN.

And like i said, amid all the sell-off, and with no other information forthcoming from Rivian other than the massively messed up earnings call/CNBC interview, Musk's comments were the only positive which is helping me stay sane with my investment; apart from some very insightful replies on this thread.
There is no doubt that RJ should improve his communication skills with capital markets, I am sure he is great when it comes to suppliers, designers and anything related to the car, but he is not the best when talking to analysts , shareholders and TV hosts. I was a META shareholder when Zuckerberg made the famous “a year of efficiency”, he said it 15 times or so on the ER and the market loved it resulting in a stock near $500.
Maybe he should talk it out with his team and come up with a clear plan to cut real $$ and send a letter to all shareholders , this will make him look dead serious about spending and the market would love it
 

NineElectrics

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I see that you created your new profile here on this forum yesterday. Most members sit back and read and learn for a bit. Then, the posts are related to the vehicle performance... how much they love it or what issues they have... or what concerns them about buying one.

This implies to me that you are likely a troll trying to bring down sentiment with negative opinions. How many other profiles do you have on this forum? What is your stock/option position? Are you an owner?
Sometimes people read anonymously and only have something to say when momentous news breaks. Regardless, I would focus on the merits of the post and not on attacking the poster. As hominem is standard Tesla cult stuff, and we are better then that!
 
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rivinv

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Tesla Investor Shows Love For Battered Rivian: 4 Reasons Why He Is Positive About The EV Maker

https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ra...ance&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site

  • Tesla investors should root for a strong number-two non-ICE player to help the company to accelerate EV transition, says Gary Black.
  • Black expects the company to be gross-margin positive by the fourth quarter, thereby reducing its cash bleed.

Potential To Be Number 2: Black called upon Tesla investors to root for a strong number-two non-ICE player to help the company to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. The fund manager said Rivian has a high quality product, brand recognition, execution skills, lack of legacy ICE baggage, and competitive conditioning.

Rivian can happily co-exist with Tesla to be that strong number-two player by 2030, he said. Rivian’s brand took the top honors in owner satisfaction, based on Consumer Reports’ survey, with 86% of customers saying they would buy it again, he noted.

Black also said Rivian competes in just pickups and SUVs, the auto industry's two most profitable segments.

General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co. , Volkswagen AG and BYD Co. Ltd. do not have it in them to be that credible number two, the fund manager added.
 
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rmalzo

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Long time Rivian investor here. RJ in his recent earnings call and the CNBC interview the next morning, really spooked me.

1) Trust is important for investors; and listening to RJ's interviews and podcasts - I always felt he was a straight talking honest guy.
When stock took a dive beginning of 2024 due to 2023-Q4 deliveries, he gave an interview with Cramer, and explained it was due to Amazon not taking deliveries and that he was very confident of R1 orders. He spoke with so much confidence and fast forward to a month later, he starts the earnings call saying that Rivian is having R1 order issues. The confidence he showed in Cramer's interview just a month back, shows no where in his earnings call tone. What has changed in just a month's time? Or was he lying in Cramer's interview?

2) Like you, me and other Rivian-believers/optimists feel - the earnings report is not bad considering that 57K production goal and gross profit positive by end of 2024. BUT, had RJ been confident in the earnings call saying that "Look, we want to be gross margin positive by end of 2024, so we target 57K production only due to planned factory shutdowns to achieve this goal", things would have been different. But his tone appeared so low on confidence and kind of scared.

Now, this does not sound right. I find it hard to comprehend what could have gone wrong in a month's time that RJ suddenly appears to be so low in confidence.
It appears that something is brewing that really shook him. And that spooks me and i guess other investors too.

If any of Rivian bulls/optimists can address my above concerns, that would definitely give me some relief!
There is….he sees they are going to be out of cash before they can finish and produce R2. That’s a reality and they either need to get another cash infusion or be acquired. I would be having serious talks with Amazon
 

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rmalzo

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Sometimes people read anonymously and only have something to say when momentous news breaks. Regardless, I would focus on the merits of the post and not on attacking the poster. As hominem is standard Tesla cult stuff, and we are better then that!
Not a troll an investor and an owner
 

CharonPDX

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One key difference between the Cramer interview and the earnings call - regulatory requirements.

In earnings calls, they *HAVE* to be conservative. They can get into actual regulatory trouble if they are too aggressive with predictions. He isn't under the same limits when being interviewed for a TV show. He can say he's "confident in their orders" there, but may have to be cagier about it in an actual investor statement. It could be as simple as "R1 orders are slowing, but he expects R2 orders to be extremely strong."

The R1 orders would be indicated in the earnings call; but in that, he can't do the completely-unproven speculation of R2 prediction in the earnings call. He can do the speculation on Cramer.
 

zajak1

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Long time Rivian investor here. RJ in his recent earnings call and the CNBC interview the next morning, really spooked me.

1) Trust is important for investors; and listening to RJ's interviews and podcasts - I always felt he was a straight talking honest guy.
When stock took a dive beginning of 2024 due to 2023-Q4 deliveries, he gave an interview with Cramer, and explained it was due to Amazon not taking deliveries and that he was very confident of R1 orders. He spoke with so much confidence and fast forward to a month later, he starts the earnings call saying that Rivian is having R1 order issues. The confidence he showed in Cramer's interview just a month back, shows no where in his earnings call tone. What has changed in just a month's time? Or was he lying in Cramer's interview?

2) Like you, me and other Rivian-believers/optimists feel - the earnings report is not bad considering that 57K production goal and gross profit positive by end of 2024. BUT, had RJ been confident in the earnings call saying that "Look, we want to be gross margin positive by end of 2024, so we target 57K production only due to planned factory shutdowns to achieve this goal", things would have been different. But his tone appeared so low on confidence and kind of scared.

Now, this does not sound right. I find it hard to comprehend what could have gone wrong in a month's time that RJ suddenly appears to be so low in confidence.
It appears that something is brewing that really shook him. And that spooks me and i guess other investors too.

If any of Rivian bulls/optimists can address my above concerns, that would definitely give me some relief!
The street never likes being surprised (embarrassed) and that's exactly what happened. RJ does not play the Wall Street game and apparently doesn't talk that much, if at all with analysts. I went back and listened to Q2 and Q3 earnings calls..RIVN clearly warned of the Amazon delivery issues...street either missed it or didn't care. Claire was very clear that margins in Q4 would suffer since MUCH lower EDV deliveries would take place in Q4 (lower produced, way higher margin producing units)..Q124 should benefit from that (and Claire said in the Q3 call that Q124 would be "clean"..The issue is there are sooo many moving parts in a start-up..BOM, raw material costs, production efficientcies, demand, orders, fall-out,interest rates and obviously emotions...Wall Street hates uncertainty and auto start-up are full of them...we have the right product/mix and solid senior mgmt who have their life on the line,....they are fully invested. Q4'24 is make or break..We'll have an updated R1 with all the cost reduction bells and whistles in place, R2 orders and hopefully a declining interest rate environment, and lastly new EDV test pilots with hopefully a large user (UPS??)...And I also think that the balance sheet will have a face lift by then (more debts/convertibles, public equity raise/Amazon equity injection)..We have 10 more months to see if this company swims or sinks..These are the facts as we know them today..We have 10 months to go!!!!
 

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I'm no fancy pants investor but I see 1 of 3 outcomes for Rivian:
  • They run out of free cash, liabilities outweigh value and company gets sold for scrap (not likely)
  • They get bought out, either hostile due to opportunity due to low market cap or out of necessity (somewhat likely)
  • They take on additional revenue with unfavorable terms and/or stock dilution until they eek out profitability and eventually sustained profitability. (Most likely)
Am I missing any viable outcomes?
I always expected this would be a wild ride and hopped on anyway. I have not heard anything in the past week that would change my outlook. It's gonna get dicey, it was always gonna get dicey.
 

feifan

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There's a lot of money in the world looking for places to go/projects to invest in. If Rivian can demonstrate gross profitability, they'll have no trouble raising capital.
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