Thought for the day

[postcromag]

Reading all the "sky is falling" reactions and posts... My simple take. I am no expert by any means, but I do remember when I bought Apple stock at $14 a share back when they were predicting Apple was going away forever. That Apple stock paid for my current property 15 years after that stock purchase. I bought Tesla when it was in the 30s and it got as low a $1 or so I seem to remember. I don't pay much attention to the day to day fluctuations. I have always bought stock in companies I am also a customer of and because I really like their products, like my R1T, and believe they are worth investing in. Yes, I invest in a company to help and participate in my way, I don't invest to make money. That is just a side benefit of investing. Maybe I won't win this time, but my track record is pretty good so far. I'm enjoying the vehicle and if it all goes bust, well it was a fun ride.

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[COdogman]

Great advice. IMO if you invest in Rivian stock you should do so with no expectations for at least 10 years. Freaking out over TV interviews 2 years after an IPO just seems like unnecessary FUD.

 

[mkg3]

Reading all the "sky is falling" reactions and posts...

While there are some knee-jerk reactions, there are fundamental problems with Rivian and how the company is being ran. To dismiss the issues as "sky is falling", is just not wanting to deal with the reality of the situation.

I do remember when I bought Apple stock at $14 a share back when they were predicting Apple was going away forever. That Apple stock paid for my current property 15 years after that stock purchase. ..

If you adjust for splits since Jobs came back, then Cook taking over, there were multiple stock splits. I don't know where the $14/share comes from but Apple was never thought to go out of business after the close call where Jobs tried to sell the company to Oracle/Larry Ellison in very early 2000s.

My average cost for AAPL is $8.46/share and have a large lot at $2.83/share. The difference is AAPL cycle time to introduce hit products (iPod, iMac, then iPhone) were significantly faster than Rivian and the seer volume of cashflow growth was night and day different than Rivian. Apple actually made money on every unit they sold, unlike Rivian.

I bought Tesla when it was in the 30s and it got as low a $1 or so I seem to remember..... Yes, I invest in a company to help and participate in my way, I don't invest to make money....

I also own TSLA, and my current (I have bought and sold since the IPO) average cost basis is $17.77/share and I have a large lot at $12.83/share. Again, Tesla split their stock multiple times so this is the cost basis today. I did buy shortly after TSLA IPO and do recall the stock dropping as low as around $16/share but never close to $1/share, so I disagree with your statement on that point. Perhaps ironic, but I sold small part of my TSLA holdings to pay for the R!S purchase.

As for "I don't invest to make money" comment, no one invest to lose money. I think it's a ridiculous statement. I do invest to make money. It has allow us to retire early, do whatever, whenever - personal freedom and perhaps most importantly, not be a burden on anyone, especially to my kids as we age into elder years.

Don't know what the purpose of this thread that you've started. Maybe to vent and rationalize your position on RIVN since most likely its underwater for everyone, including myself, at this moment?

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

While there are some knee-jerk reactions, there are fundamental problems with Rivian and how the company is being ran. To dismiss the issues as "sky is falling", is just not wanting to deal with the reality of the situation.



If you adjust for splits since Jobs came back, then Cook taking over, there were multiple stock splits. I don't know where the $14/share comes from but Apple was never thought to go out of business after the close call where Jobs tried to sell the company to Oracle/Larry Ellison in very early 2000s.

My average cost for AAPL is $8.46/share and have a large lot at $2.83/share. The difference is AAPL cycle time to introduce hit products (iPod, iMac, then iPhone) were significantly faster than Rivian and the seer volume of cashflow growth was night and day different than Rivian. Apple actually made money on every unit they sold, unlike Rivian.



I also own TSLA, and my current (I have bought and sold since the IPO) average cost basis is $17.77/share and I have a large lot at $12.83/share. Again, Tesla split their stock multiple times so this is the cost basis today. I did buy shortly after TSLA IPO and do recall the stock dropping as low as around $16/share but never close to $1/share, so I disagree with your statement on that point. Perhaps ironic, but I sold small part of my TSLA holdings to pay for the R!S purchase.

As for "I don't invest to make money" comment, no one invest to lose money. I think it's a ridiculous statement. I do invest to make money. It has allow us to retire early, do whatever, whenever - personal freedom and perhaps most importantly, not be a burden on anyone, especially to my kids as we age into elder years.

Don't know what the purpose of this thread that you've started. Maybe to vent and rationalize your position on RIVN since most likely its underwater for everyone, including myself, at this moment?

The point of his post is to say “don’t pay too much attention to scary articles and interviews” and he is right, I bet in less than 3 months there will be articles about EV demand coming back and you will massive run. Markets are irrational at times and overshoot both ways ( when in Panic and Euphoria).

 

[mkg3]

The point of his post is to say “don’t pay too much attention to scary articles and interviews” and he is right, I bet in less than 3 months there will be articles about EV demand coming back and you will massive run. Markets are irrational at times and overshoot both ways ( when in Panic and Euphoria).

I hope you're right but there is no evidence of that. If anything, it's likely that the economy will slow down more; hence, impact all vehicle sales, especially EVs since most automakers are backtracking.

Most people buy new vehicles from a dealer. Dealers are trying not to sell EVs because they cannot make profits from services (that's were the dealers make most of their profits, not by selling a new car. That's a one time revenue instead of recurring revenue). This is the key reason why hybrids are popular. Dealers make more profit per vehicle and gets the recurring revenue for ICE service. Most people don't realize this.

I realize what you're saying about the OP. That part is obvious. I was making a statement in a form of a question about his motivation for starting this thread.

 

[PVguy]

Reading all the "sky is falling" reactions and posts... My simple take. I am no expert by any means, but I do remember when I bought Apple stock at $14 a share back when they were predicting Apple was going away forever. That Apple stock paid for my current property 15 years after that stock purchase. I bought Tesla when it was in the 30s and it got as low a $1 or so I seem to remember. I don't pay much attention to the day to day fluctuations. I have always bought stock in companies I am also a customer of and because I really like their products, like my R1T, and believe they are worth investing in. Yes, I invest in a company to help and participate in my way, I don't invest to make money. That is just a side benefit of investing. Maybe I won't win this time, but my track record is pretty good so far. I'm enjoying the vehicle and if it all goes bust, well it was a fun ride.

Thank you for your comments postcromag.
I am in a similar boat to you but my investments still need to be more than a “hobby “ at this point. Since I was in the PV industry at an early stage, I also invested in some PV startups. I was investing with my heart instead of my head and proceeded to take some fairly large (for me) Losses. I pretty much vowed to not make that mistake again.
Well, here we are a number of years later and I may have put myself in the same situation again. But I do not seem to be very concerned for whatever reason. I have owned an R1T for six months and feel that it is a fantastic machine. I wish that I had had this vehicle fifty years ago (ok, with a charging infrastructure). It is truly amazing to me that Rivian has designed, engineered and produced this vehicle in, what, four years.
So, I guess that I am all-in Rivian for a number of reasons. I was self-employed for 38 years and went through some rough times. Although it may be somewhat misguided, I still have confidence that they can pull this off.
BTW, does anyone know why Amazon is taking lower deliveries of ED1? From what I understand, they are working out quite well.

 

[mkg3]

...BTW, does anyone know why Amazon is taking lower deliveries of ED1? From what I understand, they are working out quite well.

What Rivian has said is that Amazon in 4Q are focused on delivering for the Christmas rush and does not want to be distracted with introducing new vehicles into the existing fleet mix.

When the current quarter ends, at the next earnings report, we should see improvements for the EDV deliveries.

 

[J-Flo]

IMO, most of the doom and gloom surrounding RIVN stock remains a direct result of disappointment following the overly successful IPO and frothy market overenthusiasm right afterwards. The fact that everyone who bought in that period is now looking at a loss in their portfolio creates natural pessimism and some downward price pressure, and doesn’t help morale and retention of employees whose equity is underwater or losing value, but it otherwise doesn‘t matter much to the company itself unless it needs to sell stock. Fortunately, RIVN still doesn’t need to sell much stock.

The fact is, this is a great company that is much better positioned for success than TSLA was prior to 2019. It’s funny how few remember what a grim financial picture TSLA faced back then. It survived mainly because it had enough investor-fans to levitate its stock through that crucial period to allow the company to raise more capital and pay off its then-massive near term debt. RIVN’s financial picture is much cleaner and its future bright.

(Disclosure: I have no position in RIVN. I am a happy R1S owner who will probably soon become a stockholder.)

 

[DuoRivians]

I strongly believe Rivian has the superior EV product. I think their engineering and software teams are stellar. My R1T is the best vehicle I’ve owned, and impressed with software updates that really improve the driving experience.

I hope that Rivian can find a strong financial footing soon. I think the biggest issue is that investors currently cannot see how 1+1=2 financially.

Current consensus forecasts by analysts (yes, I know anal-ysts) show that Rivian needs at least $5B in cash to fund itself before turning net income (v gross profit) positive in 2029.

Until investors feel they have a better grasp of either 1/ how Rivian will raise $5B cash or 2/ generate more demand than forecasted, I think the stock price will stay depressed.

This is why I’m in favor of Rivian raising $5B asap and just biting the dilution bullet. It’ll allow everyone to just move forward and focus on Rivian’s superior products.

 

[Jayhawkeye]

I’m fine losing my azz in the stock Price. However, I’m not fine losing it on a vehicle that potentially would have no more parts, service, software updates etc. potentially selling because I’m extremely risk averse with this particular asset.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

I strongly believe Rivian has the superior EV product. I think their engineering and software teams are stellar. My R1T is the best vehicle I’ve owned, and impressed with software updates that really improve the driving experience.

I hope that Rivian can find a strong financial footing soon. I think the biggest issue is that investors currently cannot see how 1+1=2 financially.

Current consensus forecasts by analysts (yes, I know anal-ysts) show that Rivian needs at least $5B in cash to fund itself before turning net income (v gross profit) positive in 2029.

Until investors feel they have a better grasp of either 1/ how Rivian will raise $5B cash or 2/ generate more demand than forecasted, I think the stock price will stay depressed.

This is why I’m in favor of Rivian raising $5B asap and just biting the dilution bullet. It’ll allow everyone to just move forward and focus on Rivian’s superior products.

The hope is for Mar 7 to create massive orders and optimism about the car, I also don’t expect more short sellers to step in at this already depressed price, they know any good news good send it back to mid-teens easily!

 

[DuoRivians]

The hope is for Mar 7 to create massive orders and optimism about the car, I also don’t expect more short sellers to step in at this already depressed price, they know any good news good send it back to mid-teens easily!

Last week’s decline was longs unloading, not a huge increase in shorts

 

[defcon888]

If you adjust for splits since Jobs came back, then Cook taking over, there were multiple stock splits. I don't know where the $14/share comes from but Apple was never thought to go out of business after the close call where Jobs tried to sell the company to Oracle/Larry Ellison in very early 2000s.

I remember back I think in 1996/97 the stock was around $11. The whole “Newton” was a disaster. Microsoft invest $150,000,000 to keep Apple afloat, Jobs asked for the help and MS had a not voting share.

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