Time to jump on board RIVN yet?

[strykerwsu]

Motley Fool recommendations are just as bad as listening to Cramer. Rivian needs to do something big for the stock to rebound. I accepted my losses and sold a while ago.

Made me a tidy sum on some small investments over last 3 years. Worth the $75 to me. Yes you can’t do all their “buys” but if research as well they they help show some companies I wouldn’t have known about

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[DuoRivians]

All I know is Cramer said to sell. Do the opposite of Cramer’s advice.

 

[Nix]

Been Trading RIVN all the way down the long descent…but I’m now jumping On board for a run up…(hopefully).

New poster, new investor here.

I've just starting to invest in RIVN, and my plan is to continue to buy into the descent until it finds a bottom. For what it is worth, I've already priced in further price drops into my purchase order plans. I have a few limit orders at set lower prices to accumulate shares, each triggering at different prices if the price drops.

Usually each time I try this, with my luck they never trigger and I miss the chance to establish a healthy position before the price rises. So if my luck holds the same as in the past, that will be good news for everyone else who already holds shares. =)

 

[NashvilleR1S]

I took a loss on my original buy for tax reasons, reinvested at $17. I can't imagine this stock stays down much longer. The more vehicles they get one the road the better.

 

[kayabusa]

I have average at $ 17.70 And I will keep investing every time it goes down $1 FOR THE LONG RUN (10 to 20 years) . I'm a small investor and I'm willing to go up to 5% of my portfolio in Rivian and then stop and hold.

Remember to all, The market should go down more during 2023. Be careful with the sizing or the averaging

If Rivian is still in the market after 10 years, I will have succeed. IF not, well, bye bye 5%, which I already said bye bye at the moment of the investment... so no big deal.

 

[Count Orlok]

I'm a small investor and I'm willing to go up to 5% of my portfolio in Rivian and then stop and hold.

5% on a single company? Too risky for me.

 

[DuoRivians]

I’m highly confident Rivian will hit at least 200k annual production run rate in a few years.

At an $75k average price, that’s $15B in revenue. Rivian has the potential to breakeven on gross profits around the 150-175k annual run rate.

Tesla currently trades at a 9x price/revenue ratio.

If Rivian gets to $15B revenue/year, even at a very low 3x price/revenue ratio, that’s a $45B valuation, which is a ~$50 share price.

That’s enough for me to invest in $rivn for the long term.

 

[ThePineappleWins]

I’m highly confident Rivian will hit at least 200k annual production run rate in a few years.

At an $75k average price, that’s $15B in revenue. Rivian has the potential to breakeven on gross profits around the 150-175k annual run rate.

Tesla currently trades at a 9x price/revenue ratio.

If Rivian gets to $15B revenue/year, even at a very low 3x price/revenue ratio, that’s a $45B valuation, which is a ~$50 share price.

That’s enough for me to invest in $rivn for the long term.

I agree with this in general but my main concern is, is there a market for 200k trucks that cost 75k and higher? The car market is changing fast. It may never revert back to what it was pre COVID, but prices are coming back down to reality. Tesla is starting to see less demand pre price reduction. I'm slowly building a RIVN position but I'm very concerned with the market at their price point drying up...

 

[staytuned]

5% on a single company? Too risky for me.

4.28% on RIVN and 4.17% on TSLA here. Guess I like to live on the wild side...

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I agree with this in general but my main concern is, is there a market for 200k trucks that cost 75k and higher? The car market is changing fast. It may never revert back to what it was pre COVID, but prices are coming back down to reality. Tesla is starting to see less demand pre price reduction. I'm slowly building a RIVN position but I'm very concerned with the market at their price point drying up...

There were about 3 Million trucks sold in the US in 2022 with an average sales price above $60,000. I'd say that the market exists, especially when you incorporate the 3 row SUV market for the R1S.

 

[ThePineappleWins]

There were about 3 Million trucks sold in the US in 2022 with an average sales price above $60,000. I'd say that the market exists, especially when you incorporate the 3 row SUV market for the R1S.

I guess I'm not convinced yet that F-150's are cross shopped with Rivian. Over all I'm long on RIVN, but I'm far from calling them a sure thing.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I guess I'm not convinced yet that F-150's are cross shopped with Rivian. Over all I'm long on RIVN, but I'm far from calling them a sure thing.

based on 2022 sales, Rivian would need about 3.5% market share to sell 100,000 trucks per year. Basically the same category as the Jeep Gladiator/Nissan Frontier/Ford Ranger in terms of volume. That's assuming a 50/50 split. I'm not sure what the ASP of a Jeep Gladiator is, but I do have 3 coworkers who have one and the average across those 3 is about $60,000. That's for a truck that is, in basically every category, worse than the R1T. In spite of that, Jeep does not appear to have any issue selling Gladiators.

 

[jjswan33]

based on 2022 sales, Rivian would need about 3.5% market share to sell 100,000 trucks per year. Basically the same category as the Jeep Gladiator/Nissan Frontier/Ford Ranger in terms of volume. That's assuming a 50/50 split. I'm not sure what the ASP of a Jeep Gladiator is, but I do have 3 coworkers who have one and the average across those 3 is about $60,000. That's for a truck that is, in basically every category, worse than the R1T. In spite of that, Jeep does not appear to have any issue selling Gladiators.

Don't forget 200k is including van production.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Don't forget 200k is including van production.

Yeah that's a good point. Max production for the T for the foreseeable future is about 40k per year with another 40k for the S. 40k equates to about 1% market share for the US Truck market and probably less than that for the SUV market.

 

[1T2022]

I have 45% in Rivian. The rest is on defense reserve.

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