What analysts are thinking of RIVN performance

[BillyBob]

In an article today from investor place they had this interesting tidbit as to what Analysts expect from Rivian for Q421 and Q122.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts on average are expecting revenue of $60.08 million for Q4. During Q3, Rivian generated revenue of $1 million. For earnings per share (EPS), analysts are expecting a loss of $1.64. In terms of guidance, analysts are expecting revenue of $345.81 million and a loss per share of $1.21 for Q1.

The massive expected growth in revenue and EPS can be explained by Rivian fulfilling its preorders to customers. As Rivian works to boost its production capacity, investors ideally would like to see an increase in orders as well.

What's interesting is the Q1-22 revenue expectation. (For the sake of this post, assume the numbers stated above are correct.)
Comparing Q4's $60.08 million to their expected $345 million in Q1 shows a 5.75X increase. So, assuming that most of the 920 trucks delivered (1015 produced, 920 delivered) were in Q421, back of the napkin math shows that they should deliver about 5,000-5400 vehicles delivered in Q1. That equates to, BTW, about 375 per week.
Of course, we should expect that number could be heavily influenced by the Amazon Vans, but even if the vans are 50% of the number, it puts them at almost 200 per week. [Cue eyes rolling now...]
What does this mean to you? In a past life, I was involved with a public company and we lived (and died) by meeting analyst expectations. Missing by 5% was bad, missing by 10% or more could be catastrophic, and would have severe career limiting probabilities. Right now the stock is being supported by that $345MM expectation. If they miss it significantly, expect the stock to crash. So, one of two things are going to happen...
Rivian somehow starts to deliver massive amounts of trucks, or,
Sometime in April or May they come out with an announcement that they don't expect to meet analyst expectations.
And the stock plummets.
Sorry to be a Debby Downer today.

Link to the full article here:
Rivian Stock Alert: RIVN Pops Into Spotlight as Fans Cheer Exciting New Exec (msn.com)

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[NY_Rob]

Not surprising at all.. many of us stockholders are fully aware of the severe consequences of Rivian under performing in Q1 2022. Right now it's not looking too good for Rivian unless they have a stadium lot full of delivery ready product sequestered away somewhere waiting for a miracle "delivery blitz".

 

[SANZC02]

In an article today from investor place they had this interesting tidbit as to what Analysts expect from Rivian for Q421 and Q122.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts on average are expecting revenue of $60.08 million for Q4. During Q3, Rivian generated revenue of $1 million. For earnings per share (EPS), analysts are expecting a loss of $1.64. In terms of guidance, analysts are expecting revenue of $345.81 million and a loss per share of $1.21 for Q1.

The massive expected growth in revenue and EPS can be explained by Rivian fulfilling its preorders to customers. As Rivian works to boost its production capacity, investors ideally would like to see an increase in orders as well.

What's interesting is the Q1-22 revenue expectation. (For the sake of this post, assume the numbers stated above are correct.)
Comparing Q4's $60.08 million to their expected $345 million in Q1 shows a 5.75X increase. So, assuming that most of the 920 trucks delivered (1015 produced, 920 delivered) were in Q421, back of the napkin math shows that they should deliver about 5,000-5400 vehicles delivered in Q1. That equates to, BTW, about 375 per week.
Of course, we should expect that number could be heavily influenced by the Amazon Vans, but even if the vans are 50% of the number, it puts them at almost 200 per week. [Cue eyes rolling now...]
What does this mean to you? In a past life, I was involved with a public company and we lived (and died) by meeting analyst expectations. Missing by 5% was bad, missing by 10% or more could be catastrophic, and would have severe career limiting probabilities. Right now the stock is being supported by that $345MM expectation. If they miss it significantly, expect the stock to crash. So, one of two things are going to happen...
Rivian somehow starts to deliver massive amounts of trucks, or,
Sometime in April or May they come out with an announcement that they don't expect to meet analyst expectations.
And the stock plummets.
Sorry to be a Debby Downer today.

Link to the full article here:
Rivian Stock Alert: RIVN Pops Into Spotlight as Fans Cheer Exciting New Exec (msn.com)

Sounds like hogwash to me. even the low estimate of 182.4 is very high for the 1st qtr, it would require an average of 202 vehicles a week at 75k to make the low estimate.

Anyone watching the news about Rivian knows they were down for at least a week and were planning to get to 200 a week at the end of January. We have seen no information about the Amazon deliveries, also do not know the unit cost for those but will not be 75k. I think they may need to look at the analyst covering Rivian. Thinking in the first full quarter of production you would average 383 vehicles a week is optimistic in the best of times, these are not the best of times…

I have no idea what I’m talking about but, I think 4th qtr will probably be north of 70 million and they can probably double that to north of 140 million in 1st qtr ‘22 but seems like any estimates beyond that are setting the stock up to fail.

I am interested in seeing what adjustments are made in their forward looking statements on March 10th. I’d also like to see how the delivery vans are progressing and see if they are starting to generate revenue from their fleet program.

The 2021 numbers are interesting and the forward looking statements are what I want to see but for me it will be the 3rd and 4th quarters this year that will really give insight to where the stock is heading.

 

[Guy]

The Q1 results in June will be the real test, as opposed to the Q4 results in March. If by June (nine months after manufacture started) they have still not had many R1S deliveries and production is upto around 1000 then the big boys will intervene. By big boys I mean Amazon, Ford and others who own around a third of the company and are not sentimental about supplying employees first and slowly ramping. It is possible they intervened to get the VP of manufacturing fired earlier this year.

 

[Trandall]

In an article today from investor place they had this interesting tidbit as to what Analysts expect from Rivian for Q421 and Q122.
In terms of guidance, analysts are expecting revenue of $345.81 million and a loss per share of $1.21 for Q1.

This analyst must be figuring Rivian is selling an awful lot of T-shirts and water bottles. Certainly would be difficult to make this math work with vehicle sales unless Amazon is paying about $5 million per van.

 

[timf]

I expect there will be a huge rush of deliveries by the middle to end of March. They know they need the revenue but will buy as much time as they can.

 

[Max]

I expect there will be a huge rush of deliveries by the middle to end of March. They know they need the revenue but will buy as much time as they can.

That is when you need to make sure your R1 is coming with break pads when you take delivery.

 

[Ladiver]

These analysts are basing their reports on information provided by Rivian during their pre-IPO Roadshow.
The info was full of hopes, dreams, rainbows, and unicorns. After I read the info and saw the data, I knew in the short term (3-5) years, the only direction for RIVN was down.
We here on this forum probably know a bit more about Rivian than the Analysts. None of us are surprised that they will miss targets. Others in the market won’t be as forgiving. Q4 results will sting a little but but Q1 will really hurt.
Full disclosure, I bought the max shares at IPO to hold 10+ years and will purchase more when they are below $50 (maybe even $40).

 

[Picard]

I have never really understood how these analysts go about doing their analysis and why their "estimates" tend to weigh heavily on how the stock performs when the earnings come out. Focus should really be on how the company performed relative to its market (and how it sees the next few quarters) but instead, its about how a company beat or missed on estimates. This is so rife for shorts to get in a high, unrealistic estimate and watch the shares drop when the earnings come out.

Back to the topic of RIVN, does anyone know when Rivian can start selling clean energy credits? Telsa gets over 300+ million in revenue from these alone

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