What part is Rivian missing that's causing supply / production issues?

[Donald Stanfield]

My earth shattering revelation that he is not good at his job is that his company is failing.

Tesla is outperforming. Even Lucid is out performing. Polestar is outperforming. I won’t even get into the China made cars (not too fair a comparison).

Lucid is out performing? Based on what metrics exactly? Sales? Nope. Service? Nope. Models produced? Nope again. You're just making stuff up now.

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[DuoRivian]

I have 38 years experience financing commercial businesses including public traded companies and too many start ups to count. Rare is the person who can both design the widget and then successfully run the company (Musk is an idiot, but the definite exception). If we were in the lender group we would be looking to exit. I love both my trucks, but there are too many errors to ignore. The hand picked board of directors is negligent and not holding him accountable. Rumor is the last CFO left over a conflict with RJ regarding CAPEX spending (he wanted more service centers & no 2nd plant). Plain and simply you can't a plant at 30 to 40 percent of capacity and ever be profitable.

Just my opinion, but if they would change the advertising from the "feel good" stuff to actual benefits of ownership it might help. When the Ford Rivian board member left CNBC asked him what Ford learned from being on the board he said "we learned EVs aren't going to win because of the environment. They are going to win because they are better vehicles, and they are easier to own". The advertising should focus that direction. Currently it tries to convince people who already are convinced.

Sorry for the rant?‍, but I live close to Normal and heard about the supplier issue several weeks ago. The fat lady is definitely warming up her vocal cords on Rivian. Let's hope R2 can come to market way early and/or a dedicated buyer emerges.

They have money to get to the R2 and even if they ran out of money there will be several OEM’s that would love to buy Rivian. Great brand, great product, great technology and a nascent service center, showroom and charging network build out.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I have 38 years experience financing commercial businesses including public traded companies and too many start ups to count. Rare is the person who can both design the widget and then successfully run the company (Musk is an idiot, but the definite exception). If we were in the lender group we would be looking to exit. I love both my trucks, but there are too many errors to ignore. The hand picked board of directors is negligent and not holding him accountable. Rumor is the last CFO left over a conflict with RJ regarding CAPEX spending (he wanted more service centers & no 2nd plant). Plain and simply you can't a plant at 30 to 40 percent of capacity and ever be profitable.

Just my opinion, but if they would change the advertising from the "feel good" stuff to actual benefits of ownership it might help. When the Ford Rivian board member left CNBC asked him what Ford learned from being on the board he said "we learned EVs aren't going to win because of the environment. They are going to win because they are better vehicles, and they are easier to own". The advertising should focus that direction. Currently it tries to convince people who already are convinced.

Sorry for the rant?‍, but I live close to Normal and heard about the supplier issue several weeks ago. The fat lady is definitely warming up her vocal cords on Rivian. Let's hope R2 can come to market way early and/or a dedicated buyer emerges.

I agree with this. Climate change and eco-responsible arguments will get you the consumer segment to which those things are essential. That is not a huge population to be split over all EVs. The general population sees those things as secondary concerns. EVs are better vehicles, easier to use, consistent in driving, less maintenance and quieter.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Lucid is out performing? Based on what metrics exactly? Sales? Nope. Service? Nope. Models produced? Nope again. You're just making stuff up now.

Stock.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

They have money to get to the R2 and even if they ran out of money there will be several OEM’s that would love to buy Rivian. Great brand, great product, great technology and a nascent service center, showroom and charging network build out.

Yep totally agree. There is an exit possibility here. Would gut the brand, but be good for investors.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Stock.

Lucid stock is in the red too.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Lucid stock is in the red too.

Ok. But it is outperforming Rivian. Which is what you asked about, right?

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Ok. But it is outperforming Rivian. Which is what you asked about, right?

How so? It has a lower per-share price and a lower market cap.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

How so? It has a lower per-share price and a lower market cap.

Rivian is down 92%+ since IPO. Lucid is down 66%+.

92%+!!!!! Can you imagine losing 92 cents of every dollar someone gives you? How long would you be employed lol. And this is over 2 years, not just the last few quarters - it’s a long term trend.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Rivian is down 92%+ since IPO. Lucid is down 66%+.

Lucid had less of a bubble, but their stock is worth less than Rivian's is and they have a lower market cap which means they are a less valuable company. The metric you are using is meaningless.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Lucid had less of a bubble, but their stock is worth less than Rivian's is and they have a lower market cap which means they are a less valuable company. The metric you are using is meaningless.

It’s not meaningless. How much money you lose investing is pretty important to investors.
Plus, you focus on Lucid and not the other EVs doing better.

It’s ok to say rivian is something we like, but the CEO is not the right one for the task right now. Why is that so terrible? Dude has total control over decision making - not good!

 

[Donald Stanfield]

It’s not meaningless. How much money you lose investing is pretty important to investors.
Plus, you focus on Lucid and not the other EVs doing better.

It’s ok to say rivian is something we like, but the CEO is not the right one for the task right now. Why is that so terrible? Dude has total control over decision making - not good!

No other startup CEOs are doing better. Tesla was in this exact spot until its volume of cars hit the market—a worse place in terms of profitability. The IPO price is irrelevant to new investors at this point. Market cap and price per share matter, what the price was a few years ago doesn't except for trends. Considering it lost most of that value a while ago and has been more or less trading sideways for the past year and a half the trend line isn't cause for concern either.

You're cherry-picking a metric to show that RJ is incompetent and ignoring all the metrics that disagree with you. That is not exactly a very fair argument. I asked you to tell me which manufacturer of EVs at this price point is doing a better job than Rivian, and all you had was a cherry-picked metric on the IPO price.

Becoming an automaker is a very low probability endeavor. In this economy, with softening demand for EVs across the board, I'm not at all surprised at Rivian's market positioning. RJ has made a few missteps, but overall has reacted well to the greater economic climate and is positioning Rivian the best possible considering the greater circumstances.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

You're cherry-picking a metric to show that RJ is incompetent and ignoring all the metrics that disagree with you. That is not exactly a very fair argument. I asked you to tell me which manufacturer of EVs at this price point is doing a better job than Rivian, and all you had was a cherry-picked metric on the IPO price.

You didn’t ask me that. You asked me “Can you name one other EV manufacturer that's significantly outperforming Rivian right now?” And I listed a few. Look, I enjoy your points of view quite a bit, but I’m not interested in a discussion where we move the goal posts whenever the initial point can’t be sustained.

Let’s see where rivian ends up. We are all in it. I will keep my prediction I’ve had on this site: RJ is out or Rivian is acquired.

 

[TomServo2112]

Not to derail this too much, but I think your original point holds, since Musk did not "design the widget" for anything except maybe PayPal.

Not even that. I guess one could make the argument that his fingerprints are all over the design for the Cybertruck.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

The trolls are well-fed today.

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