Where $RIVN is Headed in 2026?

[mkhuffman]

Somehow we got off topic here.

$RIVN was under $14 toward the end of 2/12/26. I bought 15 shares before closing (I should have bought more!) After hours it went over $17 a share and then during the day on the 13th over $18! It settled around $17.76 after hours.

I’m thinking maybe it will dip again after Q1 results, since R2 doesn’t deliver until Q2. Q1 is a slow quarter anyway. I’m not a financial advisor though, so invest at your own risk.

Look at you! I will start making money once it hits $65 per share.

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[Gen(R3)Xer]

Look at you! I will start making money once it hits $65 per share.

Ugh, sorry to hear that. At least you didn’t buy it at $179.47 a share. I hope it gets back there someday and then some.

 

[Cal]

So why has no one opined on yesterday's 26% jump? Seems like mostly excellent R2 reviews.

 

[mkhuffman]

So why has no one opined on yesterday's 26% jump? Seems like mostly excellent R2 reviews.

Maybe because it was a lot higher in December. I just see it as a natural rebound after some better than expected financial news. They lost less than expected. I doubt it is R2 related. But who knows? The market often isn't rational.

 

[Just Passing By]

So why has no one opined on yesterday's 26% jump? Seems like mostly excellent R2 reviews.

Its unlikely Wall St was influenced by R2 reviews, or even the better than expected Q4 numbers, to drive this size of a bump, since its always looking forward. It seems like it might be related to a significantly higher R2 production rate in 2026 than the street was expecting, perhaps reinforced by a few other factors. A number of the analyst questions specifically focused on the R2 production ramp.

In this CNBC article from early February before the earnings call, the Needham analyst said "the consensus opinion holds that Rivian will sell about 15,000 units of the R2 in 2026"

In the prepared remarks on the earnings call the CFO said,
"Finally, for our 2026 guidance, we expect to deliver between 62,000-67,000 total vehicles across R1, R2, and our commercial vans. We expect total deliveries of approximately 9,000-11,000 per quarter in the first half of 2026. We plan to start production of the R2 launch variant with a single shift and expect to add a second shift towards the end of the year."

So backing out about 40k units of R1 and EDV in 2026 would leave 22,000-27,000 for R2. The street would probably work off a mid-point number of ~25k, so 10k or 66% higher than prior consensus.

RJ also made a statement about expecting "some growth in our EDV demand in 2026" including AWD and larger batteries for specific use cases at Amazon. So, reading between the lines means Rivian probably aren't relying on maintaining R1 sales, which analysts might have questioned as being unrealistic. More predictable demand from Amazon for EDV might be considered an advantage, particularly as EDVs helped contribute to better COGS in 4Q.

Expecting ~2 billion of revenue at mid-30's margin in 2026 from the VW agreement probably helped too along with maintaining high cash and equivalents levels heading into 2026.

 

[mkg3]

So why has no one opined on yesterday's 26% jump? Seems like mostly excellent R2 reviews.

It's because the reported numbers were better than feared. They also guided up 50% higher delivery than 2025.

During the call, RJ painted very rosy picture for 2026~2027 and sounds like some drank the cool aide more than others.

Delivering 42k R1 in 2026 will be very challenging. R2 numbers assumes no snags and the demand holding up.

While some people will never go back to ICEV, given their higher profit margins, they will be heavily discounted and many consumers will go stay with ICEV. Further higher profits from ICEV will offset the heavy discount the legacy automakers will use to sell EVs at lower prices.

The biggest plus on the Rivian story is the VWG JV with their SW payments and direct investment into Rivian. Many believe VWG will stabilize Rivian financials and prop them up for the next couple of years when the R2 capital expenditures are going to be the highest, That alone increases the Rivian stock value (less likely to Chapter 11); hence, the bounce.

 

[mkhuffman]

The biggest plus on the Rivian story is the VWG JV with their SW payments and direct investment into Rivian. Many believe VWG will stabilize Rivian financials and prop them up for the next couple of years when the R2 capital expenditures are going to be the highest, That alone increases the Rivian stock value (less likely to Chapter 11); hence, the bounce.

I don't remember seeing anything official, but hopefully the relationship with VW will give Rivian access to better supply channels, and maybe better part pricing. That is huge for a small business trying to compete with companies the size of GM.

 

[scottf200]

The current market cap is roughly $24B so to get to $60/share, that's 3x from here or market cap of $75B - what GM is today.

Rivian is not going to get there on autos alone....

A cool Google sheet on

Automakers by Market Cap (URL)

 

[mkg3]

..RJ also made a statement about expecting "some growth in our EDV demand in 2026" including AWD and larger batteries for specific use cases at Amazon...

Thanks for the reminder. When I'd heard that during the call, the first thing that popped into my head was the Rivian camper van.

If Amazon pays for the development of the AWD/DM large pack version, one can easily see the empty vans being customized for the RV market. Rivian can but does not need to do the RV themselves. They can sell the empty van and let the RV makers turn it into their products - much like Winnebago and Airstream do with regular automakers' platforms.

 

[Just Passing By]

They can sell the empty van and let the RV makers turn it into their products - much like Winnebago and Airstream do with regular automakers' platforms.

Agreed. The camper van market does not seem to be especially price sensitive either for those not building their own. So if a larger battery could get the EDV to say 240+ mile EPA range, versus the current 160 EPA range then that might be good enough for many RV'ers in order to generate some useful incremental sales for Rivian.

 

[mkg3]

Well, $RIVN finished February slight above for the month, still down substantially for the year. It is no longer oversold and past the earnings announcement. The next action is the March 12th event/unveiling of the R2 details.

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