No Max Pack until 2024? (Speculation)

[sacramentoelectric]

Considering how slowly Rivian has been ramping production and the number of outstanding reservations for Large Pack R1T and R1S vehicles, I don’t think we’re going to see any Max Pack deliveries next year. While I’d love to get my preorder in 2023, I’m grateful for the delay assuming Rivian takes the time to make updates to the platform. Without increasing the charging speed, stuffing an even larger pack in the R1T isn’t very useful for people who want to road trip over long distances with their vehicle. Assuming you start the day with an overnight charge, it gets you more range initially but after that, you’re stuck with a massive 400v 185kw battery that takes forever to charge. The current charge rate is barely adequate for the 135kw pack much less the monster Max Pack. Nobody wants to sit for an hour at a time charging on a road trip. Compounding the problem are the lack of RAN chargers and the frustratingly unreliable 3rd party DC fast change networks.

It’s pure speculation but I don’t think we’re going to see any Max Pack deliveries until Rivian switches over to their new motors and inverters. If that’s the case we’re almost certainly looking at 2024. At this point, it wouldn’t make sense for Rivian to use their limited engineering resources to validate a 400v 185kw pack with the current Bosch motor system only to make few thousand units before switching the entire line to the new 800v platform with in-house motors. I don’t think we’ll hear much about the delay or the new platform until well into next year (see Osborne effect.)

If the Max Pack does get delayed until 2024, it will be entering a very different market than the one we’re seeing today. Both the Cybertruck and Silverado EV should be on sale with the next gen F150 right around the corner. All these vehicles will have 400+mi range versions with much higher charging speed than what we can get with Rivian today. I know many of you would never consider anything but a Rivian but I’d be willing to wager a significant percentage of us have preorders for multiple trucks and will take whichever is available first. For those of us with multiple preorders, I’m confident we’ll get to see final production specs of all the upcoming vehicles long before any of us take delivery of our Max Pack orders. If the Max Pack doesn’t end up with a higher voltage pack, I’m grateful that Rivian is allowing those of us with pre-price hike preorders to switch batteries and even models. Without 800v on the Max Pack, our family will probably switch to the R1S to replace our Model X and hold out for the long range Cybertruck. Anybody else thinking along these lines?

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[COdogman]

I agree that a delay like that would put it into unknown territory as far as competition and technology. The RAM electric truck is supposed to be out around that time as will potential Toyota hybrid/ EV trucks. I still don’t believe the CT will ever be released unless Musk just does it to troll everyone saying he won’t do it LOL. We also don’t know yet how improvements in the Rivian software and charging infrastructure might speed up the experience.

Even the big manufacturers are struggling to do this right these days…. GM is only making 12 Hummers a day right now with a waiting list of 70k? Ford just released the lightning, but given their struggles with the Mustang Mach E I fully expect they will start to see trouble with the trucks At some point….

I don’t think Rivian would upgrade the tech or platform for those of us waiting for Max packs, especially since many of us are paying pre-3/1 pricing. I do think we will see max packs next year since it’s the same battery with more cells. That could change if the supply chain is still a disaster and they feel it’s a priority to churn out regular sized batteries just to move trucks.

 

[yorty]

Considering how slowly Rivian has been ramping production and the number of outstanding reservations for Large Pack R1T and R1S vehicles, I don’t think we’re going to see any Max Pack deliveries next year. While I’d love to get my preorder in 2023, I’m grateful for the delay assuming Rivian takes the time to make updates to the platform. Without increasing the charging speed, stuffing an even larger pack in the R1T isn’t very useful for people who want to road trip over long distances with their vehicle. Assuming you start the day with an overnight charge, it gets you more range initially but after that, you’re stuck with a massive 400v 185kw battery that takes forever to charge. The current charge rate is barely adequate for the 135kw pack much less the monster Max Pack. Nobody wants to sit for an hour at a time charging on a road trip. Compounding the problem are the lack of RAN chargers and the frustratingly unreliable 3rd party DC fast change networks.

It’s pure speculation but I don’t think we’re going to see any Max Pack deliveries until Rivian switches over to their new motors and inverters. If that’s the case we’re almost certainly looking at 2024. At this point, it wouldn’t make sense for Rivian to use their limited engineering resources to validate a 400v 185kw pack with the current Bosch motor system only to make few thousand units before switching the entire line to the new 800v platform with in-house motors. I don’t think we’ll hear much about the delay or the new platform until well into next year (see Osborne effect.)

If the Max Pack does get delayed until 2024, it will be entering a very different market than the one we’re seeing today. Both the Cybertruck and Silverado EV should be on sale with the next gen F150 right around the corner. All these vehicles will have 400+mi range versions with much higher charging speed than what we can get with Rivian today. I know many of you would never consider anything but a Rivian but I’d be willing to wager a significant percentage of us have preorders for multiple trucks and will take whichever is available first. For those of us with multiple preorders, I’m confident we’ll get to see final production specs of all the upcoming vehicles long before any of us take delivery of our Max Pack orders. If the Max Pack doesn’t end up with a higher voltage pack, I’m grateful that Rivian is allowing those of us with pre-price hike preorders to switch batteries and even models. Without 800v on the Max Pack, our family will probably switch to the R1S to replace our Model X and hold out for the long range Cybertruck. Anybody else thinking along these lines?

Have a cybertruck order (for range) Switched from Max to large due to impatience but unfortunately have not been rewarded!

 

[crashmtb]

I’ve chosen max pack to offset the effects of winter, biblical prairie wind, and big distances.

consider that a mostly-charged max pack has the same range as a “large pack”, which for me means having to charge to 100% much less often.


My guess is max pack will come in 2023 as currently planned. It’s been validated for as long as the large pack has, everything seems to indicate that it’s just a supply/demand issue.

 

[sacramentoelectric]

I agree that a delay like that would put it into unknown territory as far as competition and technology. The RAM electric truck is supposed to be out around that time as will potential Toyota hybrid/ EV trucks. I still don’t believe the CT will ever be released unless Musk just does it to troll everyone saying he won’t do it LOL. We also don’t know yet how improvements in the Rivian software and charging infrastructure might speed up the experience.

Even the big manufacturers are struggling to do this right these days…. GM is only making 12 Hummers a day right now with a waiting list of 70k? Ford just released the lightning, but given their struggles with the Mustang Mach E I fully expect they will start to see trouble with the trucks At some point….

I don’t think Rivian would upgrade the tech or platform for those of us waiting for Max packs, especially since many of us are paying pre-3/1 pricing. I do think we will see max packs next year since it’s the same battery with more cells. That could change if the supply chain is still a disaster and they feel it’s a priority to churn out regular sized batteries just to move trucks.

The purpose of the switch to in house motors is cost savings so all the more reason to delay if they are concerned with margins on early preorders. Even taking inflation into account, the redesign and increased volume should make the new trucks less expensive to manufacture. It better. I’d wager that just, “more cells” is an understatement as well. The pack will need custom cooling, bms, and enclosure. I just don’t see Rivian making a unique model to ditch it a year later for a new system with different inverters and motors. Either way, I think the longer Max Pack gets delayed, the more likely it is Rivian will scrap the 400v version.

I wholeheartedly agree that the “Emperor of Mars” doesn‘t have a lot of credibility but the CT will come out in some form eventually. Certainly not at the price or specs originally announced but I have friends working on it. It’s real. I’d guess late 2023 for the first deliveries. No idea how fast they can ramp but I’m confident I’ll see a production spec Cybertruck before I get my Max Pack preorder (currently scheduled for 2H 2023.)

 

[crashmtb]

The purpose of the switch to in house motors is cost savings so all the more reason to delay if they are concerned with margins on early preorders. Even taking inflation into account, the redesign and increased volume should make the new trucks less expensive to manufacture. It better. I’d wager that just, “more cells” is an understatement as well. The pack will need custom cooling, bms, and enclosure. I just don’t see Rivian making a unique model to ditch it a year later for a new system with different inverters and motors. Either way, I think the longer Max Pack gets delayed, the more likely it is Rivian will scrap the 400v version.

I wholeheartedly agree that the “Emperor of Mars” doesn‘t have a lot of credibility but the CT will come out in some form eventually. Certainly not at the price or specs originally announced but I have friends working on it. It’s real. I’d guess late 2023 for the first deliveries. No idea how fast they can ramp but I’m confident I’ll see a production spec Cybertruck before I get my Max Pack preorder (currently scheduled for 2H 2023.)

The in house motors do not apply to quad motor models(for now?).

The max pack has been around as long as the large pack. They just haven’t made any for public consumption yet. It’s not like they decided 6 months ago they should have one.

 

[sacramentoelectric]

I’ve chosen max pack to offset the effects of winter, biblical prairie wind, and big distances.

consider that a mostly-charged max pack has the same range as a “large pack”, which for me means having to charge to 100% much less often.


My guess is max pack will come in 2023 as currently planned. It’s been validated for as long as the large pack has, everything seems to indicate that it’s just a supply/demand issue.
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The in house motors do not apply to quad motor models(for now?).

The max pack has been around as long as the large pack. They just haven’t made any for public consumption yet. It’s not like they decided 6 months ago they should have one.

Rivian says that the new in-house motor is for dual and quad motor configurations. See page 5 of the shareholder letter.

I agree that they’ve intended to release the Max Pack for a long time but that doesn’t mean they finished development or have what they need to go into production. They clearly have their hands full and have been cutting variants like the two row R1S to streamline production so they can hit their numbers. Who knows when anybody will see Ocean Coast. I might be wrong but I think the earliest anybody has for a delivery window for Max Pack is 1H 2023. Lots can change between now and then. I‘m just guessing the 400v Max Pack will be the next variant to get pushed back and if it does, it makes more sense to just move on and build when 800v is ready. But it’s just a guess and it’s going to be a long time before we know for sure.

 

[COdogman]

I’ve chosen max pack to offset the effects of winter, biblical prairie wind, and big distances.

consider that a mostly-charged max pack has the same range as a “large pack”, which for me means having to charge to 100% much less often.


My guess is max pack will come in 2023 as currently planned. It’s been validated for as long as the large pack has, everything seems to indicate that it’s just a supply/demand issue.

I actually switched my config from large pack to the max after the price fiasco for some of the same reasons you listed. Since a big thing I want to do with my R1T is lots of road trips I thought it might make that easier, negate the losses from AT tires, cold winter weather, etc. Plus I’m not in a big rush to get my truck… Even if it’s middle-late 2023 I will be happy.

 

[crashmtb]

I actually switched my config from large pack to the max after the price fiasco for some of the same reasons you listed. Since a big thing I want to do with my R1T is lots of road trips I thought it might make that easier, negate the losses from AT tires, cold winter weather, etc. Plus I’m not in a big rush to get my truck… Even if it’s middle-late 2023 I will be happy.

I’m hoping my “2nd half of 2023” delivery window means June or July, vs. December. I’d rather not take delivery in winter.

 

[COdogman]

I’m hoping my “2nd half of 2023” delivery window means June or July, vs. December. I’d rather not take delivery in winter.

I don’t blame you. I’ve only been to Winnipeg in the summer but I imagine the winters are like eastern CO on steroids. Horizontal blowing snow so you can’t see the road in front of you.

 

[SACDFJC]

This is exactly why I decided to go with a Large Pack from the R1 Shop and placed another order for a future R1T. My thinking is aligned with your hypothesis and I figured why not get one now (and enjoy it) and then trade it in on the 800v Max Pack in a couple of years. Although, I will add that I just did an 850+ mile road trip and to my surprise the Large Pack range was more than adequate. So now the question is do I really need the Max Pack.

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