? 2022 Q4 and Full-Year Earnings Results & Shareholder Letter: 50K production goal for 2023, ~400 Mile Range for Max Pack

[Killer95Stang]

It shouldn’t be unpopular, was my first thought too. Kudos to you for not repeating it until it was publicly announced but this is dangerous for him. I assume Rivian isn’t Apple where he’d have the KGB hunt him down and yeet him into the sun, but at lots of companies this is shitcanning worthy, fair or not.

Shitcanable? Rivian testers are all over the place here in CA. Probably 50% of the time I see one at a public charging station by me, they have manufacturer plates on them. You can walk up to it in public and take pictures and even ask the employees about the truck if you would like. All the items that are now vapor ware, like the camp kitchen and tent I have seen at my neighbors and out in public showings in Venice, so not exactly a secret.

Why I even post at all about some of the items, is because of the debbie downers on this board. At least in my opinion, I get a glimmer of hope of foward progress, when I see Rivian related things out in public.

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[Zoidz]

Man… that was a disappointing earnings call. No energy. Other than 1/ announcement of R1S dual max pack and 2/ forecasted 2024 gross profit, there wasn’t much to get shareholders really excited…

That's not necessarily a bad thing. At this point in Rivian's production growth, I'd rather hear a solid execution plan for a year or two, as opposed to lots of bells and whistles. In today's business environment, I get excited when a company simply executes according to a well thought out plan.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Is it me, or is it looking like they are skimping on the max pack from previous estimates? There was an 80+ mile difference in range, but now it's only 50? That certainly isn't worth 16k, or even 10k for the preorders. I was really hoping for 400+, like how they bumped the large pack up from just over 300, so the max pack would be closer to 420. The only way you can tow anything is to have a much larger range. The truck that can tow something decent sized (2500-3500 lbs) for at least 200 miles without having to stop and charge is going to blow everything away from a sales standpoint.

I keep debating whether or not I should just get a quad motor from the rivian store but really need the towing range. It seems like they are getting the extra range from the dual motors with better efficiency then by adding batteries.

Original range was calculated with 12 modules. Large packs have 9. I think Rivian decided to change their strategy to only use 11 modules instead of 12 since it means fewer differences in the vehicles.

 

[Jac]

They explained it. They are taking lines down in Q4 for configuration adjustments for the other options. They also explained the EDV line was down in Q1 for adjustments. This will cut into their build totals.

They also said there will be adjustments mid 2024 that will bring the R1 line up to an 85k annual rate.

Other than the disappointing delivery numbers with no real mention of the delivery bottle neck or any update on the Georgia plant, overall I thought it was a decent report.

To put 50k in perspective for Rivian’s second full year of production. Tesla only had 31.6k vehicles in 2014 their second full year and did not hit 50k until 2015 their 3rd full year.

For me, a critical point in today’s quarterly earnings call was the analyst probing exactly when the R1 line will undergo adjustment to enable an increase to an 85k annual run rate and management confirmed they only expect to accomplish that productivity increase half way through next year.

 

[R1Serenity]

Was there an update on total reservations number? Seems like that would be a number to highlight, no?

 

[DuoRivians]

For me, a critical point in today’s quarterly earnings call was the analyst probing exactly when the R1 line will undergo adjustment to enable an increase to an 85k annual run rate and management confirmed they only expect to accomplish that productivity increase half way through next year.

Ugh… I wish the ramp were faster.

 

[Jac]

Was there an update on total reservations number? Seems like that would be a number to highlight, no?

they indicated a quarter ago they would not be disclosing that number any longer. They said today they have enough orders to take them well into 2024.

 

[Craigins]

For me, a critical point in today’s quarterly earnings call was the analyst probing exactly when the R1 line will undergo adjustment to enable an increase to an 85k annual run rate and management confirmed they only expect to accomplish that productivity increase half way through next year.

Why would this be a surprise? The R1 line has a target production rate of 65k veh/year by the end of 2023.

We expect to reach a vehicle production rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using 100% of the facility’s current installed capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles by late 2023.

85K EDV + 65k R1.

 

[Guy]

For me, a critical point in today’s quarterly earnings call was the analyst probing exactly when the R1 line will undergo adjustment to enable an increase to an 85k annual run rate and management confirmed they only expect to accomplish that productivity increase half way through next year.

A slow ramp given that by late next year they will have been manufacturing for three years and will not be using half the factory capacity.
They said they have enough money to the end of 2025, since Georgia comes on in 2026 that means they need to raise more money.

 

[Guy]

Why would this be a surprise? The R1 line has a target production rate of 65k veh/year by the end of 2023.



85K EDV + 65k R1.

Where do you get 85k for EDV when the contract is 100k by 2030. There is no need for anywhere near 85k for EDV. Even if that was true the factory has a total capacity of 200k so at least 115k R1.

 

[ebarke]

Original range was calculated with 12 modules. Large packs have 9. I think Rivian decided to change their strategy to only use 11 modules instead of 12 since it means fewer differences in the vehicles.

And if they add that extra pack, then it could add another 20-30 miles? That makes a bigger difference between the two. Towing capacity doesn't mean much if you can only tow something for 50 miles. If you want to tow a boat, snowmobiles, ATVs to an adventure destination, you need something that can tow those things for at least 200 miles or more, otherwise what's the point of being able to tow something.

I can tow 5000lbs with my model x (75d), but realistically, I can tow something maybe 75 miles. I personally need something that can tow at least 150+ miles so I can go from my house to my cabin without having to stop (which there are currently no places to stop and charge). I kind of regret selling the minivan because that could tow more than what I needed and had plenty of range. To make a truly great "Truck", you really need to have that range for towing reasons, if you don't ever tow anything, then it doesn't really matter, but it is a huge benefit to have that extra range when you need it....just my 2 cents.

 

[Craigins]

Where do you get 85k for EDV when the contract is 100k by 2030. There is no need for anywhere near 85k for EDV. Even if that was true the factory has a total capacity of 200k so at least 115k R1.

The lines are separate and it doesn't work like that.

Those are production rate values, not vehicles produced, and the information is straight from the S1 amendment 3 filing of Rivian's IPO.

 

[Guy]

The lines are separate and it doesn't work like that.

Those are production rate values, not vehicles produced, and the information is straight from the S1 amendment 3 filing of Rivian's IPO.

Well if their factory is limited to only 65k R1 models then they have a problem.

 

[Craigins]

Well if their factory is limited to only 65k R1 models then they have a problem.

With the upgrade to the factory it will increase to 85k as stated. But the R1 line wasn't meant to be the super profitable line. It was meant to build the brand with the R2 bringing in the profit.

 

[Guy]

With the upgrade to the factory it will increase to 85k as stated. But the R1 line wasn't meant to be the super profitable line. It was meant to build the brand with the R2 bringing in the profit.

I would have hoped they expected to make at least some profit from their most expensive vehicles when at full volume. I still expect by 2025 they make >100k R1 otherwise that factory is woefully under used.

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