“New” Quad Motor R1T pricing is crazy and not sustainable (even if Cybertruck priced higher than original reveal price estimate)

[Trandall]

Silverado EV RST - ~$105k+
R1T QM - $87k+

Sierra EV Denali Edition - $107k+
R1T QM - $87k+

F150 Lightning Platinum - $94k+
R1T QM $87k+

Tesla CT - $???
R1T QM $87k+ (I don’t give a F what the CT prices at not buying it)

Premium truck to premium truck Rivian wins against all comers, I doubt high end CT will be below $87k

Totally agree with @jjswan33. The question is are there enough "Truck/ large SUV people" who are ready to convert to EV. I think we also need to remember that Rivian is trying to sell 150K/yr R1's not 500K/yr. I think there is a market for 150K/yr for R1 at under $100K as long as they keep Sandy Monro's cheapening hands off it.

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[Rivdog]

Many of us had pre-March 22 pricing and have a subconscious anchor to that price point. Even if the quad is actually quite competitive at the 90k mark, we’ll still feel like it’s a bad deal because it’s the same truck we bought 1 year ago for 20k more.

Now whether the quad is different enough from the DM performance, that’s a different question…

 

[Rad_ry]

Just because OP got a bargain for his first R1 doesn’t mean current R1 pricing is too expensive. It’s basically a supercar.

CT is going to be real expensive. Elon even said himself. They are going to lose a ton of orders. You just have to look at the outcry when Rivian raised prices. And Tesla is giving its own customers barely any time to consider the pricing pre launch. Elon will probably try and suggest a cheaper variant is on the way, which will then get shelved down the track.

 

[rivianUGA]

A few thoughts.
1. I get the sticker shock, for those of us who had OG pricing. When my OG (3k VIN) got totaled a few months ago, I was shocked at the prices in the R1 shop as well. But when you start comparing it to the price of other trucks today (even ICE) it's probably right where it should be.

2. The CT is a joke. That thing isn't even on a truck frame. Nobody other than people looking to buy a gimmick will buy that. I don't see it as relevant to any discussion about what Rivian is doing.

3. My biggest question is a few years from now what happens with the pricing and features on the R1 platform, once the R2s are available

 

[who764]

I think the CT price is going to come in less than the Rivian and Tesla will keep it artificially low even if they take a loss. But I don't think that price is going to be low enough for most of the general public to accept the very polarizing styling of the CT. I think that is being overlooked. The CT can have all the specs and functionality and slightly lower price, and would be extremely popular if it even slightly looked like a normal truck...but it doesn't. And while there will be those out there that somehow love the look or want to be the "first on the block" with this new truck, the majority of the public is going to have a strong feeling about driving around this polygon on wheels.

I think $90k is steep for the R1T/R1S, but that is also a matter of my perspective growing up when new cards were ~$20k. When the average new car transaction is close to $50k, that $90k for a vehicle with the technology and performance of a Rivian doesn't seem that out of line.

 

[Ecupip]

If I were in the market for an R1T, there are plenty of used ones in the $76k price range with relatively low mileage. I would definitely not pay $90k for it. Or the R1S I just bought with pre price hike price.

Tesla can afford to undercut competition and they do have economies of scale. I think the big wake up call for EVs here is the popularity of the R1S.

That market is rapidly drying up. There are fewer than 100 used R1T's now for sale. The flippers are nearly done with the R1T so prices will likely go back up as inventory shrinks.

 

[McBogey]

Dual motor R1T gives Rivian flexibility. Quad will remain flagship vehicle at flagship price. Can even increase it if demand or competition raises the price ceiling. Dual is what they can tweak the price on if needed to address mid market. Absolutely have to have this flexibility in the product line.

 

[Trandall]

If Tesla only builds 150k per year as a loss lead for Elon to save face on a stupid idea, does any of this matter? Shouldn't we just call out the charade? Elon is on record saying this will be a low volume product. Well, he doesn't have low volume reservations or interest.

If you put together the facts I'm highlighting, I feel like it's hard to conclude much else.

Tesla can lose a lot of money on the Cyber Truck, in production, if there's low volume. They can lose a lot of money and offer it at $50k to sink Rivian. We should all expect some kind of move along these lines. Tesla has anti-trust power in the BEV space and will wield it as best it can, right up until the very edge (and then over, when it feels it can defend itself) of what will get regulator attention.

When you see these Tesla price drops across the globe down to the point of breaking even or even potentially losing money on some models, there's no other way to interpret this data.

They control the supply chain, they control the manufacturing, they control the demand.

Boardwalk and Park Place have a few houses on it and are about to purchase hotels.

So your prediction is that Tesla will price Cybertruck in an effort to undercut Rivian so that Rivian fails and this effort will be successful? I disagree but I guess we'll see.

 

[WorldComposting]

I'm going to come out and say it I think the OP is thinking about this from the wrong perspective.

First the R1T Quad is price competitive with regular vehicles from Ford and Chevy. It is meant to be a halo type vehicle and now that the dual motor versions are out I think they will increase prices on the Quad again to make them profitable which I don't think they are currently. Plus the dual is meant to be the one they want to sell in higher numbers and make a profit.

Second even if the cybertruck is cheaper I guarantee that will be a RWD model and the Tri/Quad will be up around the 100K mark. I agree with everyone else if they had really low prices they would have announced which would have dried up the market until it was released. I think the price is going to be a lot higher and those million preorders are going to dry up quickly with people cancelling.

Lastly the R1T is not the big seller compared to the R1S which has zero real competition at this point. Yes Volvo will have the EX90 and Kia has the EV9 but those are not really in the same class and you can't buy one today.

As someone who bought an R1S Quad after the price increase the R1 series is still a good deal.

 

[sub]

I think we are already seeing evidence of a demand problem with the R1T at current prices. Even with volume way down because they shifted focus to the R1S, the waitlist is completely clear.

I think that is pretty good evidence that the price is higher than what people are wanting to spend. The only question is if the lower priced dual motor/small battery version will be sufficiently compelling at its price point. I suspect it will be - until someone comes out with a lower priced alternative. But only time will tell.

If Tesla did stick to their original pricing, it would be a problem for Rivian though. It may be ugly, but how many people will pay $40K extra to avoid ugly.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

The quad is too expensive compared to what exactly? What other truck with its capability is being offered for significantly less money right now? There is none and all the EV trucks are the same cost or more for something similarly equipped. Yeah I get that 100K is a tough nut for most people to crack but it is a halo car not meant to be a massive seller.

Where I think the quad is going to fail is now that the dual is coming out and the dual performance is so close in specs. If I had to choose between a new quad and a dual performance at this point in time I would probably get the dual. When the specs and reviews say you cannot tell the difference it isn't worth the premium price. I think how Rivian is going to address that is by raising the specs a the cost of the quad slightly. Make it 120k with even more performance and it will sell in the numbers they are planning.

I would absolutely pay the new price and I say that as a pre march holder if the dual performance didn't exist. It's not that the quad is too expensive, it's that it's to expensive for the specs which is something I am willing to bet Rivian is going to rectify.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I'm going to come out and say it I think the OP is thinking about this from the wrong perspective.

First the R1T Quad is price competitive with regular vehicles from Ford and Chevy. It is meant to be a halo type vehicle and now that the dual motor versions are out I think they will increase prices on the Quad again to make them profitable which I don't think they are currently. Plus the dual is meant to be the one they want to sell in higher numbers and make a profit.

Second even if the cybertruck is cheaper I guarantee that will be a RWD model and the Tri/Quad will be up around the 100K mark. I agree with everyone else if they had really low prices they would have announced which would have dried up the market until it was released. I think the price is going to be a lot higher and those million preorders are going to dry up quickly with people cancelling.

Lastly the R1T is not the big seller compared to the R1S which has zero real competition at this point. Yes Volvo will have the EX90 and Kia has the EV9 but those are not really in the same class and you can't buy one today.

As someone who bought an R1S Quad after the price increase the R1 series is still a good deal.

I don't think they can increase the prices again with the quad being so close in spec to the dual performance. Most people simply don't need the quad and it seems like the on road performance is almost indistinguishable between the two models. I think if anything they will need to up the specs on the quad before talking about any price hikes.

 

[SciGuy]

@mini2nut be careful because you’ve succumbed to the psychological pitfall of “price anchoring”. Just because you got pre-hike pricing doesn’t mean the truck is only worth that much. Your OP doesn’t provide any data as to why the truck isn’t worth $90K+. You simply assert it because of the price you paid for yours

@jjswan33 and @kozak79 have it right by comparing against what’s out in the market with similar performance and specs. This is a more objective and fair way of thinking about the price.

 

[Bee]

So your prediction is that Tesla will price Cybertruck in an effort to undercut Rivian so that Rivian fails and this effort will be successful? I disagree but I guess we'll see.

Kudos for acknowledging the merits of my argument and then disagreeing and not making it a knife fight. Civilized discourse on forums is jarring when it happens, "this is normal human interaction" and then "wait, this is normal?!"

My bet is they'll be making like $1-2k per car max and they'll only be there because they know if they take a loss they'll gain regulator attention.

People are losing sight of the anti-trust, as in, not considering it at all because they're focused on the overall BEV market share, which is low. Granted that leaves time for the game to play out differently than what I'm about to say but they're failing to consider that Tesla has a monopoly-like hold on that sector and it's set in stone that sector will go from say 7.5% to 100%.

We as Rivian fans should be aware of this dynamic as the Cyber Truck looks to align itself as a loss lead to kill new competition. This, right here, is the start of a monopoly. The first people you crush are the new guys. That's the battle that's being waged no one is talking about. Or barely talking about.

 

[LevelHeaded]

As many others have pointed out, R1T pricing is better than all existing competition, ICE or EV, for similar features/specs/capabilities.

Not sure how that translates to R1T being priced “too high.” In fact, I’m in the camp that believes that QM will be positioned north of where it is now in the future, after DM fully ramps, akin to a Plaid or Sapphire version of the R1.

Then again, just like OP, I’m not even close to an expert.

ALSO, can we not call it “new pricing?” This happened 18 months ago.

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