Rivian Price Prediction and Forecast Article

[DuoRivian]

These forecasts are ridiculous speculation. On a side note, Tesla energy storage business is very profitable and makes up part of the equation.....I'm thankful for them, as I paid for my R1T flipping Tesla stock from 2019 to 2022.

Teslas energy business has been losing money until recently, is a commodity business (solar panels) and is low margin.

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[ThumprMN]

What if…. Rivian, known for its focus on sustainability, adventure, and innovation in electric vehicles, chose to take its future ba-zillions and spun off its own space rocket/shuttle company that maintained its focus on an outdoor/nature brand culture & values.

Here are a few speculative names for this silly thought exercise:

1. Rivian - AstroVenture
2. Rivian - SpaceWay
3. Rivian - StarQuest
4. Rivian - TerraNova
5. Rivian - CosmicTrail
6. Rivian - SolarVoyage
7. Rivian - StellarPath
8. Rivian - AstroJourney
9. Rivian - OrbitX
10. Rivian - SkyVoyager

These names capture the spirit of exploration, sustainability, and innovation that Rivian embodies. And is purely a silly thought experiment. ????‍??

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Teslas energy business has been losing money until recently, is a commodity business (solar panels) and is low margin.

Tesla storage gross profit of $400M in Q1 with a margin of almost 25% The battery storage business will be worth more than auto at some point. Maybe you're referring to something else.

 

[kayabusa]

-Rivian cash on hand was $7.85 B in March 2024. (Estimated cash today $6 Billion.)

-Cash Burning rate currently is $6 B annually

-Rivian can't become cash flow positive well into 2026.

-Due To Significant Ongoing Cash Burn, VW's Expected Capital Injections Merely Stabilise Rivian's Equity Balance At Around $7 billion By Year-End 2025

-Despite VW's Capital Injections Rivian's Leverage Ratio Remains Eleveated Limiting Rivian's Ability To Raise More Debt
'
To understand VW JV with Rivian, we will need to take a look of the following image and see where is this going.

 

[mkhuffman]

-Rivian cash on hand was $7.85 B in March 2024. (Estimated cash today $6 Billion.)

-Cash Burning rate currently is $6 B annually

-Rivian can't become cash flow positive well into 2026.

-Due To Significant Ongoing Cash Burn, VW's Expected Capital Injections Merely Stabilise Rivian's Equity Balance At Around $7 billion By Year-End 2025

-Despite VW's Capital Injections Rivian's Leverage Ratio Remains Eleveated Limiting Rivian's Ability To Raise More Debt
'
To understand VW JV with Rivian, we will need to take a look of the following image and see where is this going.

If this happens, can we still call Rivian an American car company?

 

[Zoidz]

And Tesla was supposed to hit $3000 by 2025?? I think RIVN has a much better chance.

From a stock market investment perspective, Tesla is much more diverse than Rivian, and that diversity will likely grow the stock faster than RIVN.

 

[MidnightRivian]

I ran a Discounted cash flow analysis, I also looked at comparable stocks and even consulted my magic 8 ball.

I have the final price target for this stock.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

24/7 Wall St isn’t what I would call a quality journalistic outlet. As was pointed out, they’ve done a lot of hit pieced on Rivian. Most of those articles were written by an AI, as are most of 24/7’s content.

I’d like to believe this but the source is a real PoS IMO.

 

[richguess]

I’ve made small amounts selling covered calls. When the stock was $10-$14, the premiums were pretty high. I was. Ever knit for the long term. Buying at $10 and selling at $15 is better, but this was pretty profitable.

 

[Yellow5]

I have my opinions on this as well, but it is probabilistic in nature. Last year when I invested I put the chance of failure at 25%. There would be competition, struggles getting to scale, negative press from all the legacy manufacturers that would highly prefer to use their outdated ICE technology model (repair costs boost the bottom line more for ICE than EV on the long run due to more moving parts), etc. In total, I made the assumption that the company would survive about 3/4 of the time, with a subset of survive which involved thriving (approximately 1/3 the time).

The company that survives stabilized in my model around 75 dollars for the stock price, then grows more/less with the market. As we move towards the thrive result, notably occurring due to having greater brand loyalty, superior products, and smaller competition (if the big manufacturers don't do more than dipping their toes in to the EV space on the luxury end, they aren't a threat for RIVIAN), the expected stock price tips over 500 dollars per share. While my specific findings may be wrong to an extent I believe the general prediction holds. If RIVIAN can survive and become profitable, avoid major pitfalls and secure funding to the extent it is required to truly scale, the ceiling is very high relative to the current price. The probability of that occurring is not zero, but it isn't 80% either. I believe the deck is stacked in our favor as investors, relative to the returns of any major index.

It is just a financial model. All models are flawed, but some are useful. I believe my model is useful, so I invested. The stock price is very volatile for several reasons, primarily because there is a major disagreement between folks on the likelihood of mid term total failure. I believe the naysayers are wrong for one very important reason, people love their RIVIAN vehicles. Strength of brand is one of the most valuable assets any company can have, look at Apple, Rolex, Nintendo, etc. People love the product so there is a tremendous amount of value. At the moment, RIVIAN has that, the world can be theirs if they play their cards right.

I hope they do, not just for my potential financial gain but for what RIVIAN can do for the world.

 

[White Shadow]

I'll wait until after the upcoming election to speculate on this. It could have a major impact depending on the outcome.

 

[SRO]

I don't know how else to respond to this graph except: "wooow, what a cute picture honey! let's get it up on the fridge right away"

Edit: to state the obvious, that's directed at the author of the article, not



@NY_Rob .

Also, I would love for this to actually happen because I'm currently breaking even at $15/share but this is a fairy tale.

https://apple.news/AEh7HgH30S1i7qea8UFdOTQ

thru 2030…

The level of competition is way understated when comparing to Tesla’s rise. Now every car maker in the world has EVs on the street. Tesla didn’t make a dime until they made less expensive cars. Having said that I feel RIVIAN will do well because of efforts to lower prices and maintain quality. Although the gen2 doesn’t lower price, considering the features it is understandable.

 

[RivFly]

I have to laugh......getting stock price estimates on/from a car enthusiast websites(......and a car brand you have some emotional ties too), about the same if not worse than listening to your friends at the gym. ?‍

 

[savethemanual]

There are soooo many unknowns in the future, but the consensus seems to be the stock is going now where but up long term. Will be exciting to see this one out!

 

[DuoRivian]

Tesla storage gross profit of $400M in Q1 with a margin of almost 25% The battery storage business will be worth more than auto at some point. Maybe you're referring to something else.

Their solar business - solar roof and tiles.

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