Rivian Guide Calls - Countdown to Thanksgiving Target

[TessP100D]

I ordered a Model S in April 2021. Long Range, back when they were $10k cheaper and coming by August (lol)

in June, the date moved to December. When I called about it, it was suggested in an oblique way that if I paid $10k more my delivery date might move up.

They got their $100 from me, but I cancelled my order then as well. Note my forum registration date, my wife reminded me how excited I was 'about that one truck' and said I should just get that.

She's regretting it a little because I don't do anything by half measures and I ordered a loaded to the gills one, but, cheaper than the tesla's new jacked up price, and way cooler.

Good points.

have you seen Edith Keeler?

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[SANZC02]

Honestly, I'd be surprised if there were more than 1000 LE vehicles. It won't take them long to contact them all. The Toyota Supra had a Launch Edition that was only like 1500.

I think there are more than 1K but would be surprised if it is more than 5K.

Of course just my opinion, really have no clue, at this point probably easier to pick tonight's lottery numbers than speculate on number of preorders and delivery schedules.....

 

[paariv]

I'd wager they won't be contacting everyone (or even a majority) of preorder holders by Thanksgiving, but I think the return on that wager would be pretty damn low.

I think they'll easily meet the Thanksgiving deadline. "Contacting" preorder holders means reaching out.

It doesn't mean they'll have actually completed initial calls with everyone (how can they guarantee that, which depends on the customer's schedule and responsiveness?). To meet the deadline, especially by Rivian standards, the guides only need to have introduced themselves by email.

 

[eggpaul]

I think they'll easily meet the Thanksgiving deadline. "Contacting" preorder holders means reaching out.

It doesn't mean they'll have actually completed initial calls with everyone (how can they guarantee that, which depends on the customer's schedule and responsiveness?). To meet the deadline, especially by Rivian standards, the guides only need to have introduced themselves by email.

Oh yes, that's very true. An email on the last few days of Nov to schedule a call 1-2 weeks later. Gets us into mid Dec. Then we get the spring delivery dates.

 

[LoneStar]

Oh yes, that's very true. An email on the last few days of Nov to schedule a call 1-2 weeks later. Gets us into mid Dec. Then we get the spring delivery dates.

Still too optimistic. In December if they have anything close to firm delivery numbers and target customers through January - that would be a minor miracle. The pattern will be a up & down rate of growing deliveries as the factory settles in and issues of whatever kind come and go. Real information about when YOUR vehicle is actually happening will most likely remain uncertain until your build hits the front end of the production line. Meaning probably a 2-3 week window (or more) then you'll have some certainty. I don't say this to criticize Rivian. This is how it goes right now with established OEMs like Ford customer orders. Trust me, I have two recent experiences that prove it.

 

[SANZC02]

I think we will have more information as we get into December. If we recall the target delivery dates for the early contacts were October/November, to me that means that all though externally they were saying September, that was when they thought they would get all of the approvals and get a few actual production VINs built and out to a select few. Internally they thought October/November to start any real consistent deliveries.

If we start seeing deliveries roll out this month, see the LE preorder holders contacted by Thanksgiving and see more information on the production status of the R1S then there is still hope for by June, if not then......

 

[RWerksman]

I think they'll easily meet the Thanksgiving deadline. "Contacting" preorder holders means reaching out.

I think the definition of this is more than just reaching out. It's offering a time for folks to schedule their introduction meeting. That means available meeting times for all preorder holders and having folks available during these times to talk.

I'd say it even goes one step further - having a timeline for delivery for each and every one of these folks, even if it's a range like March-June. It does no good to force your folks into meeting with people knowing full well they don't have the biggest bit of information they will be asked for. That is, unless you're just looking to meet that token date.

I'm still saying that this isn't going to happen. The date remained even when deliveries were pushed from June to July to September. It's likely this will go into December and even possible that we'll still be waiting for the final calls in 2022. That is unless there are a very small amount of LE vehicles. I guess time will tell.

 

[paariv]

I think the definition of this is more than just reaching out. It's offering a time for folks to schedule their introduction meeting. That means available meeting times for all preorder holders and having folks available during these times to talk.

I'd say it even goes one step further - having a timeline for delivery for each and every one of these folks, even if it's a range like March-June. It does no good to force your folks into meeting with people knowing full well they don't have the biggest bit of information they will be asked for. That is, unless you're just looking to meet that token date.

I'm still saying that this isn't going to happen. The date remained even when deliveries were pushed from June to July to September. It's likely this will go into December and even possible that we'll still be waiting for the final calls in 2022. That is unless there are a very small amount of LE vehicles. I guess time will tell.

This is really a semantics argument more than anything else, but I don't think you need to have time to complete 1:1 calls with all LE customers before Thanksgiving to meet a "reaching out" deadline.

"Reaching out" is an extremely low bar to clear on its own terms, and while I agree that everything you want should be part of an initial interaction, I don't think it is necessarily within the definition.

Meeting a "token date" has been the pattern this entire year, so I'd expect it to continue for some time.

 

[DucRider]

A Guide contact is just that.
Contact: "To establish some form of communication"
Reaching out with an email to introduce yourself is contact.
From the original Rivian email/story:

This week, our Guides begin sending email introductions to R1T Launch Edition preorder holders. We’re so excited to start meeting you. This introduction email will include your Guide’s direct contact information and an invitation to set up a phone call to discuss your configuration and share your estimated delivery timing.​

The above most certainly counts as "contact".

 

[jjswan33]

25 guides
12 calls each per day
300 LE contacts per day
6 weeks (30 business days)
9,000 LE contacts.

Wouldn't take hundreds of guides, just a couple of dozen.

Some calls will be short. Not much for me to chat with them about until I can see and drive the R1T.

I was doing this math the other day too, I think you have to look at it a little different. They likely can't spend the whole day contacting new customers as they will also have to answer questions and deal with there existing customers they already contacted. If they give a guide more than 100-150 customers I think it would be very hard for them to keep up with meaningful customer service.

I also think LE orders are probably closer to 20k. I looked over a survey from another forum and you can extrapolate that LE orders sold out in Nov 2020. A good percentage of the orders before that day are for the Max pack and therefore not LE orders. At the time I had heard suggestions/rumor they had about 40k preorders and today they have about 60k preorders (again rumor). They have also stated they anticipate making around 60k vehicles in their first year (presumably a mix of RIT, R1S and vans). If you take that 60k number assume a reasonable ramp rate then 20k by spring looks about right.

If you take that 20k number and assume a 150 customers/guide that would require 133 guides. If you assume I am off and only 10k LE orders then 66-67 guides.

Contacted doesn't necessarily have to mean a phone call. I suspect as others have that they probably won't schedule a phone call if you are not expected to receive your Rivian until April/May, they'll just shoot an email saying hello and that we expect to produce your vehicle by April or whatever.

 

[paariv]

I was doing this math the other day too, I think you have to look at it a little different. They likely can't spend the whole day contacting new customers as they will also have to answer questions and deal with there existing customers they already contacted. If they give a guide more than 100-150 customers I think it would be very hard for them to keep up with meaningful customer service.

I also think LE orders are probably closer to 20k. I looked over a survey from another forum and you can extrapolate that LE orders sold out in Nov 2020. A good percentage of the orders before that day are for the Max pack and therefore not LE orders. At the time I had heard suggestions/rumor they had about 40k preorders and today they have about 60k preorders (again rumor). They have also stated they anticipate making around 60k vehicles in their first year (presumably a mix of RIT, R1S and vans). If you take that 60k number assume a reasonable ramp rate then 20k by spring looks about right.

If you take that 20k number and assume a 150 customers/guide that would require 133 guides. If you assume I am off and only 10k LE orders then 66-67 guides.

Contacted doesn't necessarily have to mean a phone call. I suspect as others have that they probably won't schedule a phone call if you are not expected to receive your Rivian until April/May, they'll just shoot an email saying hello and that we expect to produce your vehicle by April or whatever.

I don't see any reason to believe there are more than 5k Launch Editions (but of course I'm guessing too).

Forum surveys are representative only of the most enthusiastic and on top of it users, so the proportion of LE orders in that group should not be extrapolated to the general preorder population.

Everyone was eligible to reserve LE if they'd preordered by 11/2020, but Rivian closed down LE orders in less than a week, indicating that they hit a cap quickly.

And finally, latest intelligence from a reviewer is that they currently have 40k preorders, not 60k. This number is pretty recent so would include all of 2021 if it's anywhere near up to date. We're working with a lower base of total orders than you think.

 

[electruck]

I looked over a survey from another forum and you can extrapolate that LE orders sold out in Nov 2020.

Extrapolate? The configurator went live 11/16/2020 and, per Rivian, LE reservations were full by 11/20. This has absolutely nothing to do with the total number of reservation holders - only the max number of LE vehicles Rivian decided they would build (which we should expect to be a limited quantity). The actual number of LE vehicles built will likely be less than the number reserved due to cancellations or folks deciding to hold out for Max pack R1T or the 5-seat R1S.

 

[Trandall]

My WAG for # of LE's is right around 10K and with a preorder date of 01/13/2020 I think I'm approximately in the middle of this group. I never quite understood the seemingly arbitrary self imposed deadline of Thanksgiving for LE guide contacts. I was initially super pumped about having a guide asap but then I realized "for what?". Rivian if you contact me greater than 90 days prior than my likely delivery date I am going to tell you to get back to more important work and call me when it's time. I appreciate the thought but 2018 preorders need their R1's, there's charging and service infrastructure to build, and jamming a 180KW pack into an R1S isn't solving it's self and UI can always use more refinement. I have the info I need to finalize configuration decisions, was waiting on EPA #'s and seeing LG, done and done.
Long story short... Super impressed so far, mass communication is fine for me now exceed my delivery expectations! (Expecting "by spring of 2022).

 

[jjswan33]

Extrapolate? The configurator went live 11/16/2020 and, per Rivian, LE reservations were full by 11/20. This has absolutely nothing to do with the total number of reservation holders - only the max number of LE vehicles Rivian decided they would build (which we should expect to be a limited quantity). The actual number of LE vehicles built will likely be less than the number reserved due to cancellations or folks deciding to hold out for Max pack R1T or the 5-seat R1S.

My extrapolation was that. If X number of orders before 11/20 when LE sold out and things went live to everyone. Of those orders Y number were for the Max pack truck so couldn't be LE orders.

Yes it could be wrong have survey bias or other errors and the number could be 10k or 50k. But other estimate of 1k or 2k or 5k are nothing but speculation based on nothing.

Regarding raw numbers of pre-orders. There was an estimate based on order numbers from Aug 2020 that suggested 30k. Some of those likely got canceled. I thought one of the reviewers said 60k, did they say 40k? If it were 40k before last week then that would certainly put LE numbers lower.

I would estimate of orders placed before 11/20 at least 50-75% will be for the LE and the rest opting for the larger pack or postponing a reservation for the smaller pack. Take that up or down as you see fit or add to the range.

Preorder 11/2022 * 50-75% = LE orders
40k preorders = 20-30k LE vehicles
20k preorders = 5k-7.5k LE vehicles

20k preorders seems low to me but time will tell.

 

[RWerksman]

This is really a semantics argument more than anything else

No, no it's not. Not at all. Reaching out is an email. Technically RJ reached out to all LE preorder holders. This is substantive, including delivery timing. Hell man, it even says so here:

https://rivian.com/support/article/when-can-i-take-delivery

If you have a Launch Edition preorder, your Rivian Guide will reach out to you by November with expected delivery timing.

I'm not sure how much more clear it can get. They have 8 weeks and change to do this. I don't believe they will be able to pull it off. (although I hope they do)

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