Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good

[DD4ST]

Six years ago Tesla was an island unto themselves in the EV market. Lots of competition for Rivian today. Rivian WILL NOT dominate the market copying Tesla. They need to adapt to the current consumer, not simply EV enthusiasts of six years ago. Dating myself, but think of the Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS format wars for recording video on tape. Betamax was arguably a better, sharper format that Sony controlled exclusively and expected to capture 100% of the market. JVC came out a year later with a lower resolution offering that was nonetheless cheaper and could record longer (two hours). Consumers opted for both cheaper and what best fit their lifestyle (movies). Betamax eventually hit the dustbin of history. In this analogy, both Ford and GMC are VHS and Rivian is Betamax.

Sponsored

 

[KidThunder]

I dont really see a path to profitability until that 2nd plant is open and they have R2 & R3 styles available. Tesla had 4 plants producing vehicles by the time it turned profitable.

 

[Gentilly7]

This is fake news. Rivian has not said that they will be profitable in Q4. They have never indicated that they will make a profit in 2024. They are committed to having a positive contribution margin on R1 vehicles in Q4 of this year. It remains to be seen whether or not the change to production forecast will impact that goal.

Having a positive contribution margin is very different from having a net profit, so people need to stop repeating that line.

Fake news? Rivian has communicated they expect a “positive gross margin profit” in Q4. Call it whatever kind of profit you want, it’s still at risk with the miss on production.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Fake news? Rivian has communicated they expect a “positive gross margin profit” in Q4. Call it whatever kind of profit you want, it’s still at risk with the miss on production.

Positive gross margin and profit are not the same thing.

 

[André]

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Nothing new in this video. Recycled alarmist content harvesting for clicks.

 

[André]

Nothing new in this video. Recycled alarmist content harvesting for clicks.

Well we will know when the Q3 financials are disclosed. The increase in finished products inventory will be a good indicator on whether Rivian has a supply issue or a demand problem… 100k$ SUV/trucks market is limited, even if they are the best on the planet.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Well we will know when the Q3 financials are disclosed. The increase in finished products inventory will be a good indicator on whether Rivian has a supply issue or a demand problem… 100k$ SUV/trucks market is limited, even if they are the best on the planet.

Rivian lowered its production guidance but kept its sales guidance the same. That backs up what they are saying about material constraints, not reduced demand. This has already been discussed further up on this thread.

 

[Philip]

Completely agree, I love the company and I’ve been buying stock and buying down since the IPO. I’ve lost almost all my fingers trying to catch these falling knives. I’m okay holding what I have, I still believe in the company long term.

It is a good product and like you I believe in it.
Production definitely needs to be ramped up while there is demand but if deliveries don't happen quicker people will lose interest.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

O

Rivian lowered its production guidance but kept its sales guidance the same. That backs up what they are saying about material constraints, not reduced demand. This has already been discussed further up on this thread.

Agree. Though folks are concerned that there is no sales growth from 2023 to 2024.

Only the Q4 numbers can solve this debate.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

O

Agree. Though folks are concerned that there is no sales growth from 2023 to 2024.

Only the Q4 numbers can solve this debate.

I think growth is asking a lot when even Tesla demand is down and they have much cheaper cars. The greater market has seen contraction mostly across the board. Keeping the same in a down market is growth.

 

[Gentilly7]

Positive gross margin and profit are not the same thing.

Profit gross margin is a form of profit. If you are going to accuse someone of spreading fake news, at least be more specific in your own post.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Profit gross margin is a form of profit. If you are going to accuse someone of spreading fake news, at least be more specific in your own post.

That’s like saying dogs and people are the same because they are both mammals. It’s true, but ultimately meaningless. Positive gross margin means that each vehicle sold is profitable when direct costs are factored in.

That’s all it means, and that is a long way from Rivian being profitable. Confusing those two things is a common misconception.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Profit gross margin is a form of profit. If you are going to accuse someone of spreading fake news, at least be more specific in your own post.

You specifically said that they were in danger of missing their first "profitable quarter," specifically implying a quarter where their income is greater than their spending. That is not something that Rivian has ever indicated, and nobody would consider "positive contribution margin" to be the same as "profitable"

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Fake news alternative facts. There is only one definition of growth and it doesn’t mean the numbers stayed the same.

Sure, if you don’t consider greater markets to analyze trends. You’re technically correct but missing the bigger picture and therefore drawing a flawed conclusion.

It’s not “fake news” to consider things in context, it’s a smart idea.

Sponsored