Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good

[HeresRonnie]

This is the textbook example of trying to catch a falling knife. Emotions should take a back seat, there are way better companies to invest in, just because you love the car does not mean that you should put your hard earned dollars into an investment. Be careful…

Completely agree, I love the company and I’ve been buying stock and buying down since the IPO. I’ve lost almost all my fingers trying to catch these falling knives. I’m okay holding what I have, I still believe in the company long term.

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[Hereforthesnacks]

So I glad I dumped a bunch of shares at $15.80 before I was negative on them. I’m getting back in if it goes to 8 though. I don’t think Amazon or VW will let them die.

Really weak demand right now, though. And I know 99% of you here won’t agree, but the introduction of the $79k CT yesterday will push some buyers that were on the fence towards the CT.

$8 has been my buy point too!

 

[HeresRonnie]

I’m curious if this is also the reason Rivian removed all large battery packs from shop inventory today?

 

[Jim4]

Then you’ll love it at $7!

 

[renderpaz]

I genuinely don't think soft demand is a quality or service issue. It's a market size/saturation issue. The R1S is the most popular SUV, period, in many target markets. I see at least 5 anytime I go out. (And people still stop me to ask me how I like it)

We also don't know if Rivian has evenly distributed this part shortage R1T vs EDV.

Also, I would not underestimate the importance of the Tri and Quad being largely unavailable this quarter. Many are simply waiting for a tri or quad.

And finally a note on incentives. These vehicles were recently repriced. The power of incentives in making sales are strong, even if you aren't getting more value. Price something 10% higher, so you can offer 10% off "for a limited time" is not a new strategy. I don't know if that is what Rivian is doing. But why wouldn't they?

Bad news for profitability, but doesn't exactly look like the sky is falling yet.

 

[savethemanual]

Long term, I'm hanging in there as an investor. I think for them to sell as many R1's as they do is amazing, given the price point of those vehicles. There are so many unknown's yet with other EDV customers, R2 & 3 has potential customers drooling and the overall softening for EV demand is showing to be short term. There are global records being broken every month with the warming of Earth, humanity drastically needs to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels before it's too late for the life we're used to on this planet. Lastly, there's no denying Rivian has built an incredible brand. Yes, they have some quality/service issues but the majority of owners absolutely LOVE their vehicles.

 

[R1TS]

At these levels of production/delivery, they could be hand making these vehicles by hand like a Mclaren.

It was not a smart move by Rivian to be going up the price ladder with these cars. There’s very little demand above $100K, particularly nearing $120K, for the same shell that costs under $80K (and even less with tax credit).

 

[waitingonanr1s]

Not sure what to think any more. Seems like gross profitability is unlikely for 4th quarter per the narrative they've been repeating for over a year now. Q3 earnings release should be interesting, but my hunch from these delivery numbers is they begin walking that back when released in Nov. The R2 release is going to be crucial.

 

[waitingonanr1s]

At these levels of production/delivery, they could be hand making these vehicles by hand like a Mclaren.

It was not a smart move by Rivian to be going up the price ladder with these cars. There’s very little demand above $100K, particularly nearing $120K, for the same shell that costs under $80K (and even less with tax credit).

It's a tough spot though - they couldn't keep giving them away at well under cost either. It's a much harder sell at the current price point - although DM is still ok I think. The TM and QM pricing is a little insane though.

 

[BCan]

These vehicles are overpriced and under delivered. My wife’s new Model Y…impresses with self driving functionality and ride quality. At current prices…you could buy a Model y and another ICE truck to actually beat the sh*t out of as a truck.

(3 year Gen 1 owner.)

 

[thair]

It's honestly shocking they've sold as many vehicles at these prices as they have. I chalk it up to the tax credits and the lease deals that some financier out there is going to take a bath on. Do we know who's taking on the residual risk for all these leases?

If it's Rivian ultimately holding the bag they will certainly not survive.

 

[André]

I don’t believe in the supply issue limiting production. Demand is a better reflection of the market size for such an expensive SUV/truck now that the deliveries at the pre-hike price are phasing out. They are obviously not willingly building unsold inventories.

 

[renderpaz]

At these levels of production/delivery, they could be hand making these vehicles by hand like a Mclaren.

McLaren quality is notoriously awful

 

[Biturbowned]

These vehicles are overpriced and under delivered. My wife’s new Model Y…impresses with self driving functionality and ride quality. At current prices…you could buy a Model y and another ICE truck to actually beat the sh*t out of as a truck.

(3 year Gen 1 owner.)

It’s obviously your opinion that you think the Model Y quality is better than the Rivian’s, but it’s 180 deg from my experience and most reviewers.

 

[narmstrong79]

Why is everyone so surprised by this ? didn't RJ say months ago to expect a bad Q3 ?

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