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Does Rivian have what it takes to survive?

Newtonrj

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Local Sales Reps unresponsive
- If you don’t like your sales representation, get someone else.
- I’ve had several interactions with online & Spaces team members where going on a year later, they still remember me without looking at their notes. They are positive and knowledgeable. They do research on the spot and I get follow up emails from them and a survey.

Corporate Sales Reps are not knowledgeable
- Again, I’ve talked to corporate sales. Was fortunate to know one person who I workout with personally when we recognized each other at a demo drive. He was very approachable about Rivian and their product line. He was aware of all the details and questions I asked plus was able to add vague but helpful hints about upcoming changes and launch date/seasons.

Vast drivetrain and battery options
- Maybe I’m under informed here but there are 3 battery pack options https://rivian.com/support/article/what-battery-options-are-available
  • Standard pack: 258 mi / 415 km (EPA est.)
  • Large pack: 330 mi / 531 km (Rivian est.)
  • Max pack: 420 miles / 676 km with Dual-Motor (Rivian est.), 371 mi / 597 km with Tri-Motor (Rivian est.)
Motor options are as (un)complicated
https://rivian.com/support/article/how-much-horsepower-do-rivian-vehicles-have
  • Dual-Motor: The base model with 533 horsepower and 610 pound-feet of torque
  • Performance Dual-Motor: This model has 665 horsepower and 829 pound-feet of torque
  • Tri-Motor: This model has 850 horsepower and 1,103 pound-feet of torque
  • Quad-Motor: This model has 1,025 horsepower and 1,198 pound-feet of torque
Barely produces 50k vehicles per year
You are correct but also not paying attention to the larger stories. If you say that Rivian produced and sold as many vehicles as they did in ’24 you would be correct. Same is true of Tesla.

They had a parts shortage in motors for 3 months of the year. They also had a 6-8 week shutdown in early Summer'24 to switchover from Gen1 to Gen2. And they launched the Tri-Motor R1S and R1T with Ascend interior changes.

Would it surprise you to find out in 2023 that EV sales were 1.3M and 2024 were 1.4M vehicles?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/03/business/ford-gm-vehicle-sales.html Meaning that Tesla and Rivian are par for the EV sales “course” they are playing on. Even as Ford/GM/Honda and Hyundai grew their sales in ’24 https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g63396028/bestselling-evs-2024/ That means the looser is ICE powered vehicles.

Strategy for increasing volume
- Rivian is adding a R1S Quad/Max this year. They will also deliver several software updates to Gen1 and Gen2 fleet vehicles. They will further add new delivery customers to the EDV space without lowering forecasts for their launch partner, Amazon where they have committed to 50,000 over 8 years and have thus far delivered 10,000 EDVs just to this single customer.
- In ’26, the R2 line starts shipping from Normal, IL. To date, there are more than 100k reservations.
- in ’28, the GA plant will start 400,000 vehicle production of the R2 and R3 line plus has Phase 2 capacity for 40,000 additional vehicle production buildout. https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1144652_rivian-georgia-ev-plant-6-6b-doe-loan

Becoming profitable.
- Tough question. That is a futures question. We can speculate and look at the growth plan, customer passion, this forum and look at statements at earnings calls. Here is a fact that many people who love Tesla fail to bring up. . . Tesla was unprofitable for 17 years. Until ’20 when they finally turned a profit. Rivian won’t get anywhere near that many years to turn the corner. But let’s hold our thoughts on profitability to shipping great products as separate conversations. Rivian has over $5B in cash, a $6B deal with VW JW and a $6B DOE loan to draw upon. They are forecasting Positive Gross Profits in ’25 and Unit Gross Profitability in the most recent closed Q4’24. We’ll have to see in Feb’25 when they report Q4’24 results how they are progressing in this area.
 
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Gentilly7

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Why would you ask a question that literally nobody on this forum is properly equipped to answer (other than the obvious rhetorical purpose of an opportunity to complain about a recent experience). Maybe email RJ asking him this question, because the honest answer from everyone here is ?‍♂
Any discussion about Rivian’s success or failure is speculative. I didn’t come here to complain about a recent experience. It was a genuine concern about how the company operates and uses economies of scale. Just wanted to know if anyone else had the same observations.
 
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Gentilly7

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Starting a car company is really tough. Having said that Rivian has the money to survive with the VW investment. The real test is 2026 with the R2, the R1 has been great but with the volume of the R2 that is the true test. Someone seems to say the same thing as the OP every few months, you should have been here in 2021 to see real stress of being an original deposit holder.
The VW investment is good but it’s a phased disbursement. Everyone has high hopes for R2 but Rivian still has a lot to prove with the R1 line. I say that because they have to prove they can consistently make a gross profit on a higher margin car before they can successfully make gross profit on a lower margin, higher volume vehicle like R2. I really don’t think it’s a matter of Rivian closing its doors, it just may be a longer, rougher journey to success.
 

Paul Hackett

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I’ve always been bullish on Rivian, but I recently experienced being a customer shopping for a Rivian and it makes me second guess if they have what it takes to survive. The local sales associates are unresponsive to follow ups. The corporate sales reps are not knowledgeable of the products. The vast drivetrain and battery options for a company that barely produces 50k vehicles a years seems like a poor strategy for increasing volume and becoming profitable.

This is a stark contrast to how Tesla was operating before the Model 3 launched.

I hope I’m wrong.
Totally agree on all points. I took possession of my 2025 R1S Tri-motor about 2 months ago and have put about 3,000 miles on it. Every step of the purchase process was sloppy, slow, uninformed and two months after taking delivery Rivian is still trying to figure out how to fill out the registration and title paperwork correctly so I can get my truck registered and my permanent plates; thus far they've sent the paperwork back to me twice with semi-literate post-it-notes directing unclear messages. Three years into delivery they don't have the retail supervision to have this process down pat?

When I call to get clarification? We'll get back to you,,,,,,, still waiting. Poor customer service will lead to their death. That doesn't even begin to address the service issues that I read about on this forum. There is a very limited number of people who will spend over $100,000 on a car and tolerate that level of poor and ineffective service.

The vehicle itself I'm thrilled with. It's unbelievable. 99.9% impressed. Can not imagine going back to an ICE.

The fact that for $110,000 I don't get a spare tire and they can't sell me a spare tire because they don't have any and don't know when they will,,, WTF?

Certain design issues are interesting but not necessary and ill-advised simply because there is not broad outside support available and Rivian can't provide the support in a timely manner. For an example see 12v battery replacement. Sorry but I don't want to schedule an appointment to either have someone come change my battery or me go somewhere to change my battery; 12v dies, stop off at NAPA buy replacement, get out the crescent wrench replace battery, coupled with an automatic reset of saved functions.

Now I have to have someone take the front passenger seat out to replace a 12v? Now I can't even call AAA in a pinch to come to me in an hour and replace my 12v?

I can't pay for XM satelite radio capability? Now I have to pay a monthly subscription to Rivian for cell connected XM? I already have that with BlueTooth with my cell phone and lifetime subscription. Problem is, when I'm on a "real" adventure outside of San Fran, LA, Manhattan etc, there ain't no cell service.

This is an example of over complication and consistent with rejection of even basic right to repair and frankly overly disruptive and controlling.

I like many of us on this forum, I suspect, invested early in Rivian stock and want to see them succeed, but they have to match customer service quality to the brilliance they applied to the design of their vehicles.

RJ, surely you studied Toyota and more specifically Lexus while obtaining the MIT, PhD. You may have the best product but you need a professional sales force with professional adults behind the service desk coupled with accessible service centers and even "after-market" service support to survive.

Give us Lexus/Mercedes quality service or eventually Lexus and Mercedes will give us Rivian quality EV engineering with Lexus and Mercedes level customer service and service centers for repairs.

And to be clear I want to see Rivian survive and thrive and pound the hell out of the legacy auto-makers.
 

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I'm seeing more and more on the road, even with "dealer" tags. I think they'll be fine.
 

Rivdog

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Don’t be ”lazy and ignorant” like me. Explain it to me like I’m 8 years old. I really want you to break down the point you are attempting to make.
You want someone to give a definitive yes or a definitive no, which is not possible. No amount of explanation will answer your actual question.

Buy the Rivian if you want it. If you want a Tesla, buy that instead.
 
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PaythePiper

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Tesla didn't make 50,000 vehicles in a year until 2015, 7 years into their production cycle. We are 3 years into Rivian production cycle.

50,000 in year 3 is better than 50,000 in year 7.
I get this argument, but Rivian is in a hell of a better place to sell EVs than Tesla was back in year 1-7……. And that’s a good thing. More EVs selling the better
 

Donald Stanfield

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I get this argument, but Rivian is in a hell of a better place to sell EVs than Tesla was back in year 1-7……. And that’s a good thing. More EVs selling the better
How do you figure that? Tons of competition, a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions and now high interest rates and an economic slowdown are all reasons Rivian has had a tougher row to hoe than Tesla did.
 

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PaythePiper

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How do you figure that? Tons of competition, a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions and now high interest rates and an economic slowdown are all reasons Rivian has had a tougher row to hoe than Tesla did.
What I meant was it’s a lot easier today to sell an EV than it was back in 2015. EVs have come a long way in the marketplace
 

Hereforthesnacks

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I get this argument, but Rivian is in a hell of a better place to sell EVs than Tesla was back in year 1-7……. And that’s a good thing. More EVs selling the better
Issue is Tesla had 0 competition. Rivian has a ton for the R2. When you are first, you get more leeway. When you are 10th, you must be perfect.
 

PaythePiper

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Issue is Tesla had 0 competition. Rivian has a ton for the R2. When you are first, you get more leeway. When you are 10th, you must be perfect.
True. But trying to convert people who were drive ICE for a century is no easy task either. Both had different challenges. Where Tesla kicks Rivian’s ass is manufacturing and saving money there. Rivian is learning though. Look at all they shaved with the G2
 
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Gentilly7

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Local Sales Reps unresponsive
- If you don’t like your sales representation, get someone else.
- I’ve had several interactions with online & Spaces team members where going on a year later, they still remember me without looking at their notes. They are positive and knowledgeable. They do research on the spot and I get follow up emails from them and a survey.

Corporate Sales Reps are not knowledgeable
- Again, I’ve talked to corporate sales. Was fortunate to know one person who I workout with personally when we recognized each other at a demo drive. He was very approachable about Rivian and their product line. He was aware of all the details and questions I asked plus was able to add vague but helpful hints about upcoming changes and launch date/seasons.
That’s great your sales reps were on point. My local sales rep told me the standard LFP pack can be software unlocked at a later date. He als said he was texting me his contact info, never did. I called several times to get anyone at the local sales center to call me, no one ever called back. The first corporate rep I talked to told me Rivians never qualified for any tax credits. The second corporate rep I talked to said she had no clue how the leasing works. Rivian expects a non-refundable $1k deposit before Chase will talk to you about the terms of their financing and leasing options.

Vast drivetrain and battery options
- Maybe I’m under informed here but there are 3 battery pack options https://rivian.com/support/article/what-battery-options-are-available
  • Standard pack: 258 mi / 415 km (EPA est.)
  • Large pack: 330 mi / 531 km (Rivian est.)
  • Max pack: 420 miles / 676 km with Dual-Motor (Rivian est.), 371 mi / 597 km with Tri-Motor (Rivian est.)
Motor options are as (un)complicated
https://rivian.com/support/article/how-much-horsepower-do-rivian-vehicles-have
  • Dual-Motor: The base model with 533 horsepower and 610 pound-feet of torque
  • Performance Dual-Motor: This model has 665 horsepower and 829 pound-feet of torque
  • Tri-Motor: This model has 850 horsepower and 1,103 pound-feet of torque
  • Quad-Motor: This model has 1,025 horsepower and 1,198 pound-feet of torque
I understand the battery and drivetrain options. I brought it up because there are a lot of configurations for a manufacturer that only sells 50k units across 3 models. That can’t be good for economies of scale and efficient manufacturing when striving for healthy gross margin profit.

Barely produces 50k vehicles per year
You are correct but also not paying attention to the larger stories. If you say that Rivian produced and sold as many vehicles as they did in ’24 you would be correct. Same is true of Tesla.

They had a parts shortage in motors for 3 months of the year. They also had a 6-8 week shutdown in early Summer'24 to switchover from Gen1 to Gen2. And they launched the Tri-Motor R1S and R1T with Ascend interior changes.

Would it surprise you to find out in 2023 that EV sales were 1.3M and 2024 were 1.4M vehicles?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/03/business/ford-gm-vehicle-sales.html Meaning that Tesla and Rivian are par for the EV sales “course” they are playing on. Even as Ford/GM/Honda and Hyundai grew their sales in ’24 https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g63396028/bestselling-evs-2024/ That means the looser is ICE powered vehicles.
Good info. Tesla’s woes are definitely self-inflicted. Elon’s shenanigans and the stale model line up is in my opinion, the reason for Tesla’s stagnation. But Rivian’s parts shortage was also self-inflicted. I believe I read they miscommunicated the quantity needed form a supplier.

Strategy for increasing volume
- Rivian is adding a R1S Quad/Max this year. They will also deliver several software updates to Gen1 and Gen2 fleet vehicles. They will further add new delivery customers to the EDV space without lowering forecasts for their launch partner, Amazon where they have committed to 50,000 over 8 years and have thus far delivered 10,000 EDVs just to this single customer.
- In ’26, the R2 line starts shipping from Normal, IL. To date, there are more than 100k reservations.
- in ’28, the GA plant will start 400,000 vehicle production of the R2 and R3 line plus has Phase 2 capacity for 40,000 additional vehicle production buildout. https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1144652_rivian-georgia-ev-plant-6-6b-doe-loan
I’m hoping they have some ambitious but feasible production goals.

Becoming profitable.
- Tough question. That is a futures question. We can speculate and look at the growth plan, customer passion, this forum and look at statements at earnings calls. Here is a fact that many people who love Tesla fail to bring up. . . Tesla was unprofitable for 17 years. Until ’20 when they finally turned a profit. Rivian won’t get anywhere near that many years to turn the corner. But let’s hold our thoughts on profitability to shipping great products as separate conversations. Rivian has over $5B in cash, a $6B deal with VW JW and a $6B DOE loan to draw upon. They are forecasting Positive Gross Profits in ’25 and Unit Gross Profitability in the most recent closed Q4’24. We’ll have to see in Feb’25 when they report Q4’24 results how they are progressing in this area.
I agree, the future is bright. Having a cult following and a brand like Tesla whose CEO is causing owners to leave their brand, creates a huge opportunity for Rivian. Amazon and VW partnerships are huge stabilizers. But Rivian will have to show they have what it takes to move wisely. Create an impressive product at a competitive price, while making a profit.

Thanks for the informative non-defensive response.
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