180 R1T produced / 156 R1T delivered as of Oct 31 -- per Updated Rivian S1 [11/1]

[Dbeglor]

We don't know the take rate for R1S vs R1T and Launch Edition vs others. If they hit the 1200 number, that could satisfy a decent chunk of the 2018 R1T customers who selected LE. Gives our November 2018 LE R1T in the Seattle area some hope at least...

That's faster than I thought before this update. I was expecting them to only be up to maybe 500-600 by end of year.

I'd actually shorten my expectation for the majority of R1Ts getting delivered by early Spring based on this (remote people should still reserve their expectations). There can't be many more than 1,000. Based on this, I think most LE T's are delivered by March and most S's by end of Spring as previously projected for completion of LE.

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[Dbeglor]

That actually sounds like a sizable increase. From what, 2 R1’s/day to ~30 for November and December (7 weeks) removing the week of Thanksgiving & Christmas. Could they progress to 100/day in Q1? All deliveries by end of 2023 seems like a very slow ramp rate. But they will also have Amazon vans competing for chips, batteries, etc.

Ford only thinks they can deliver 20,000 Lightning's in 2022, albeit with a late start (sometime in Spring). So, take that as a data point. I read all of this as supply constraints will cause a levelling off of the production ramp, effectively bottlenecking it until those issues are resolved.

 

[bac4uw]

I, for one, and am impressed with the depth and content of the self-flagellation that begins on page 22 under Risk Factors...! Pretty damn on point...

 

[dleepnw]

Yikes. End of 2023 for all the "preorder backlog"? That's way further out then they communicated before. Didn't they previously state all preorders would be done by next year? And I think it was summer of 2022?

Well this is disheartening. To finish with 1200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss by end of this year, they will need to produce ~16 per day which is 3 times what they've produced in a day so far (4-5). If we take the next two years (2022 and 2023), they need to produce 76 per day to hit 55,400 by end of 2023. Obviously there will be some ramp up curve so its not a static 76 per day and that total number could be lower with folks backing out so best case is sooner than end of 2023 but more likely probably past 2023 based on Rivians previous record of estimation.

Guess Elon was right: prototypes are easy, mass production is hard.

The other factor are the commercial vans. Since they have a commitment/contract for delivering those vehicles and I believe its 10,000 by end of 2022. So just next year they need to produce 27 of those per day to make that number. For sure a reason the R1T/S preorders are going to be delayed to 2023.

 

[Dbeglor]

That actually sounds like a sizable increase. From what, 2 R1’s/day to ~30 for November and December (7 weeks) removing the week of Thanksgiving & Christmas. Could they progress to 100/day in Q1? All deliveries by end of 2023 seems like a very slow ramp rate. But they will also have Amazon vans competing for chips, batteries, etc.

It's a massive escalation. They went from 56 as of 10/22 to 180 through today. That's nearly 14 per day since the last update.

 

[Taycanfrank]

That's assuming everyone that pre-ordered follows through. I'd expect 30% of pre-orders that actually purchase to be on the higher end of estimates.

There are going to be a lot of people that were eager to be on the waitlist that realize an expensive large electric truck/suv sight unseen isn't a purchase they can sleep with. The Taycan had a huge waiting list that vanished almost as soon as deliveries began, even though it's remarkably true to concept with exceptional reviews. The R1T/R1S won't be any different.

Rivian knows this but obviously aren't going to say "but we only expect 20,000 pre-orders to actually go to purchase and we can clear that by early 2023."

 

[André]

Ouch, end of 2023 would be pretty rough. Glad I still have my F150 Lightning reservation, but wouldn't be surprised if that gets pushed out as well.

End of 2023 to deliver 55,000 trucks ? Theirs numbers do not add up...

"The factory building covers approximately 3.3 million square feet and is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually. In early 2024, we expect to reach a vehicle build rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using the facility’s current installed capacity."

 

[Dbeglor]

Yikes. End of 2023 for all the "preorder backlog"? That's way further out then they communicated before. Didn't they previously state all preorders would be done by next year? And I think it was summer of 2022?

I honestly can't keep track of official guidance vs. forum speculation or hearsay at this point....Regardless, it definitely wasn't by Summer, that was for LE (end of Spring or beginning of Summer depending on how you want to look at it).

 

[wizard467]

Yikes. End of 2023 for all the "preorder backlog"? That's way further out then they communicated before. Didn't they previously state all preorders would be done by next year? And I think it was summer of 2022?

Well this is disheartening. To finish with 1200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss by end of this year, they will need to produce ~16 per day which is 3 times what they've produced in a day so far (4-5). If we take the next two years (2022 and 2023), they need to produce 76 per day to hit 55,400 by end of 2023. Obviously there will be some ramp up curve so its not a static 76 per day and that total number could be lower with folks backing out so best case is sooner than end of 2023 but more likely probably past 2023 based on Rivians previous record of estimation.

Guess Elon was right: prototypes are easy, mass production is hard.

From Oct 22nd (S1 Amendment 1) to Oct 31 (S1 Amendment 2) they went from having produced 56 (Oct 22nd) to 180 (Oct 31). So in 9 days they were able to make about 14 per day. In just over a week they tripled their previous production rate.

This is how the production ramp-up will go. It will drastically jump in production as they work out individual issues.

 

[Dbeglor]

Yikes. End of 2023 for all the "preorder backlog"? That's way further out then they communicated before. Didn't they previously state all preorders would be done by next year? And I think it was summer of 2022?

Well this is disheartening. To finish with 1200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss by end of this year, they will need to produce ~16 per day which is 3 times what they've produced in a day so far (4-5). If we take the next two years (2022 and 2023), they need to produce 76 per day to hit 55,400 by end of 2023. Obviously there will be some ramp up curve so its not a static 76 per day and that total number could be lower with folks backing out so best case is sooner than end of 2023 but more likely probably past 2023 based on Rivians previous record of estimation.

You're doing your math wrong. They produced about 14 per day since the last update through 10/22. So, they really don't need to accelerate production at all to meet those numbers.

 

[Scoiatael]

Ford only thinks they can deliver 20,000 Lightning's in 2022, albeit with a late start (sometime in Spring). So, take that as a data point. I read all of this as supply constraints will cause a levelling off of the production ramp, effectively bottlenecking it until those issues are resolved.

Ford is not releasing production targets for 2022. The 15,000 and 20,000 numbers are being pulled out of the air. The only production target they have released is to build 80,000 in 2024.

 

[Dbeglor]

End of 2023 to deliver 55,000 trucks ? Theirs numbers do not add up...

"The factory building covers approximately 3.3 million square feet and is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually. In early 2024, we expect to reach a vehicle build rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using the facility’s current installed capacity."

What doesn't add up? The latter sentence is saying that entering 2024, their weekly rate will annualize to 150,000. That rate will clearly be far higher than what they average between now and end of 2023 to satisfy current reservations.

 

[Dbeglor]

Ford is not releasing production targets for 2022. The 15,000 and 20,000 numbers are being pulled out of the air. The only production target they have released is to build 80,000 in 2024.

Pretty sure it came directly from that guy named Darren or whatever.

 

[mwexler2]

Yikes. End of 2023 for all the "preorder backlog"? That's way further out then they communicated before. Didn't they previously state all preorders would be done by next year? And I think it was summer of 2022?

Well this is disheartening. To finish with 1200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss by end of this year, they will need to produce ~16 per day which is 3 times what they've produced in a day so far (4-5). If we take the next two years (2022 and 2023), they need to produce 76 per day to hit 55,400 by end of 2023. Obviously there will be some ramp up curve so its not a static 76 per day and that total number could be lower with folks backing out so best case is sooner than end of 2023 but more likely probably past 2023 based on Rivians previous record of estimation.

Guess Elon was right: prototypes are easy, mass production is hard.

The other factor are the commercial vans. Since they have a commitment/contract for delivering those vehicles and I believe its 10,000 by end of 2022. So just next year they need to produce 27 of those per day to make that number. For sure a reason the R1T/S preorders are going to be delayed to 2023.

I wonder if this includes preorders that are placed while they a draining the backlog.
They added ~7000 preorders since the last S1. Does anybody think that there will be no more preorders after this S-1 was written?
I read this as it will take until end of 2023 before they will be able to deliver a new order out of Inventory instead of growing the pre-order backlog.

 

[wizard467]

Also, Amazon delivery is definitely not being prioritized!

By the end of 2021, we intend to produce and deliver approximately 10 EDVs.

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