Business Insider IPO recommendation article - don't buy at target price says equity research firm

[TessP100D]

My hot armchair take is that valuations are a reflection of what the market thinks that company can do in the future. Rivian has proven they can raise capital and design and deliver products. I see many tailwinds at their back - gov'ts phasing out ICE cars, the proven market demand of luxury and economy EVs, large votes of confidence from Ford and Amazon. They already have one huge customer for commercial EVS and FleetOS, and 50+k consumer reservations.

Rivian hasn’t proven anything yet. A few trucks delivered is not a mass produced truck. Maybe in a few years they might be a bigger player.

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[TessP100D]

IPO range just updated. I guess I called that one.

What is the change you are talking about?

 

[electruck]

Respectfully I don't think we will see large volumes of sales of the RT1. It’s. As all niche market truck and it’s really expensive.

No but the models to follow will be more affordable with the potential to sell in higher quantities. But that's still years down the road... that and profitability.

 

[jjswan33]

What is the change you are talking about?

Got an email from ETrade. New S1 with range 72-74. Haven’t had a chance to look in any more detail.

 

[Mjhirsch78]

How are these target prices determined? Is it Rivian? A collection of financial folks? It seems so strange that almost weekly they might change the price on something like this based on one week of new data about production and whatnot. Companies are hopefully going to be around for more than one quarter of a year that a week’s worth of data would make this huge difference on. I’m still buying in, but this IPO process is very bizarre. Hooray for gambling on investing in stocks.

 

[Blur1t]

What ever the news says that may drive up or down stock price of an IPO always view everything as a gamble (I know it should be obvious).

Any money you put in a IPO, ask your self how would I feel if I lost 70% of $? AM I alright with it? I am cool with my $10,000 becoming $3,000? At least for a short amount of time with the potential to go back to more than $10,000 but not a guarantee?

I invested in LCID back in February and had several months of massive losses but now its on the up. Food for thought is all.

Glad someone else said it. I’m in it for the long haul, short term is just too much stress, and anxiety.

 

[Whmorken]

Thanks this article has a similar lean to the much longer article from Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...luation-dont-buy-rivians-ipo/?sh=2b73895530d1

The essence of the WSJ article is that the EV race is about to heat up with Tesla and the major car companies enjoying big advantages over Rivian. True. Rivian has worked hard for the best part of a decade to produce an all in one EV with awesome performance on and off road. How does this unique product enable Rivian to expand from this narrow appeal to take on the world? Amazon commercial van’s are a step but an EV Sprinter is just one of the many alternatives over the horizon that will compete with Rivian. The Rivian IPO video stressed that it’s plan does away with the need for dealerships and will expand beyond vehicles into other product lines, however all automobile companies will likely adjust in similar ways. This will be one tough race. Meanwhile, the R1T and R1S stand alone and we await delivery expectantly.

 

[Matt D.]

Respectfully I don't think we will see large volumes of sales of the RT1. It’s. As all niche market truck and it’s really expensive.

I agree about the R1T. The volume will be from the EDV.

 

[battleborn]

Great thread.
Sometimes in the morning I feel like RIVN will go to the moon, and then after lunch I feel like it's gonna be a bad investment.... lots of emotion for sure.
The fact that RIVN has Amazon and Ford on board is worth a lot to me.
The truck is a niche like the Ridgeline as far as body style - not sure the "gear-tunnel" is gonna create huge demand- the slide out kitchen is likewise not gonna bring in the masses....
It will be interesting to watch how RJ handles himself and how his behavior effects the share price.
I'm waiting for the longer range models.

 

[André]

How are these target prices determined? Is it Rivian? A collection of financial folks? It seems so strange that almost weekly they might change the price on something like this based on one week of new data about production and whatnot. Companies are hopefully going to be around for more than one quarter of a year that a week’s worth of data would make this huge difference on. I’m still buying in, but this IPO process is very bizarre. Hooray for gambling on investing in stocks.

Absolutely normal. This has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business. Price is based on demand from large institutions and retail to a lesser degree. If the allocated shares are oversubscribed, this is the underwriters' job to raise price up to whatever enough buyers are ready to pay for it. This means there is strong demand for the shares... which is a bit surprising to me !

 

[Mjhirsch78]

Absolutely normal. This has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business. Price is based on demand from large institutions and retail to a lesser degree. If the allocated shares are oversubscribed, this is the underwriters' job to raise price up to whatever enough buyers are ready to pay for it. This means there is strong demand for the shares... which is a bit surprising to me !

Thanks For the info.

 

[Bobthebuilder352]

I agree about the R1T. The volume will be from the EDV.

Their own S-1 says the opposite.

 

[Matt D.]

Their own S-1 says the opposite.

Did you read the most recent S-1? It says they are going to be producing more vans than R1S/T.

 

[Bobthebuilder352]

Did you read the most recent S-1? It says they are going to be producing more vans than R1S/T.

I read the opposite. Where do you see that?

 

[André]

I read the opposite. Where do you see that?

Normal plant has a production capacity of 150,000 units splitted in 65,000 R1 and 85,000 commercial vans as per latest S-1

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