US HOUSE LIKELY TO KILL EV TAX CREDIT, SPEAKER JOHNSON SAYS

[mkhuffman]

So the American public will be subsiding manufacturing jobs to the tune of $10,000 to $30,000 per vehicle. Fast forward 10 years into automation -- will we still have to subsidize those companies when it's just robots and no humans?

Nope. None of that is true, but that is my opinion. And since neither of us can predict the future, all we have are opinions.

I happen to believe we can compete with China if we put them on the ropes. Right now they are under the ropes and falling onto the concrete outside the ring with the tariffs we have imposed on them. Their entire economy is on the verge of collapse. Ours is far, far better. We will win. Definitely.

I believe we can and will beat them as long as the playing field is fair. And finally, it is. Nobody can beat us if the playing field is fair. Nobody.

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[CosmicRivian]

Nope. None of that is true, but that is my opinion. And since neither of us can predict the future, all we have are opinions.

I happen to believe we can compete with China if we put them on the ropes. Right now they are under the ropes and falling onto the concrete outside the ring with the tariffs we have imposed on them. Their entire economy is on the verge of collapse. Ours is far, far better. We will win. Definitely.

I believe we can and will beat them as long as the playing field is fair. And finally, it is. Nobody can beat us if the playing field is fair. Nobody.

I envy your bravado and wish I shared your strong, speculative assertion of US economic invincibility, but I'm afraid I don't.

The global economic landscape is competitive, and future dominance depends on continued innovation, adaptation, and effective policies. Right now, we have an administration that doesn't seem to be advancing on any of these fronts (actively retreating from them, many would argue).

As you say, none of us can predict the future, but we do have our speculations. Sadly, mine remain bearish on the US economy under the current executive and legislative branches. We have a president driven to committing unforced errors, a House and Senate which are virtually stagnant, and an American public that is largely addicted to their distractions and content to stay that way. It's depressing, to say the least.

 

[mkg3]

...I believe we can and will beat them as long as the playing field is fair. And finally, it is. Nobody can beat us if the playing field is fair. Nobody.

That's just it isn't it. They are not playing fair and is not a fair playing ground. That's the whole point of current tariff and the trade war.

The Chinese government restricts foreign competition and subsidize their EV industry. It was one of the pillars stated in the early 2000s that they wanted to be the global leader in.

The EV war is raging in European countries and the Chinese are winning with the lowest cost vehicles, even with 30~40% tariff by the EU.

Once, the playing field is somewhat leveled, we have a good chance to beat them. I say good because they will find ways to tilt the field in their favor somehow.

What we cannot compete in, until humanoid robots can work in the assembly line is the low cost labor. Our union workers got huge raises in the past 3 years while the Chinese labor rate has stay the same and effectively lower due to exchange rate.

You don't have to goto China to see the impact. Just take look at the Ford Maverick. Made in Mexico at a lower wages initially and sold at the base price of $20k 3 years ago. Today, the same truck is almost $30k before any tariff affects.

If we want to beat them, we have to change the equation. Its not a matter of fairness.

 

[mkhuffman]

I envy your bravado and wish I shared your strong, speculative assertion of US economic invincibility, but I'm afraid I don't.

The global economic landscape is competitive, and future dominance depends on continued innovation, adaptation, and effective policies. Right now, we have an administration that doesn't seem to be advancing on any of these fronts (actively retreating from them, many would argue).

As you say, none of us can predict the future, but we do have our speculations. Sadly, mine remain bearish on the US economy under the current executive and legislative branches. We have a president driven to committing unforced errors, a House and Senate which are virtually stagnant, and an American public that is largely addicted to their distractions and content to stay that way. It's depressing, to say the least.

I am sad you are so pessimistic about our future, I am not. I am extremely bullish. I am taking all the cash I have and investing in us. And when I say "us", I mean you and me. And Rivian. And everyone else who participates in our economy and produces things we want to spend our earnings on.

Our freedom is our differentiator. And I think when we have more, we dominate more. China has forced labor factories, and they control their population with social credit scores, and they steal from their citizens to subsidize exports, but that is a losing system. Our is better. Much better.

And when we put a tax on them, they will fail. I know I am right, but of course it is only a prediction based on what I believe about us. In a year from now, I expect you will be much more optimistic than now.

The future is bright, because we control it!

 

[mkhuffman]

That's just it isn't it. They are not playing fair and is not a fair playing ground. That's the whole point of current tariff and the trade war.

The Chinese government restricts foreign competition and subsidize their EV industry. It was one of the pillars stated in the early 2000s that they wanted to be the global leader in.

The EV war is raging in European countries and the Chinese are winning with the lowest cost vehicles, even with 30~40% tariff by the EU.

Once, the playing field is somewhat leveled, we have a good chance to beat them. I say good because they will find ways to tilt the field in their favor somehow.

What we cannot compete in, until humanoid robots can work in the assembly line is the low cost labor. Our union workers got huge raises in the past 3 years while the Chinese labor rate has stay the same and effectively lower due to exchange rate.

You don't have to goto China to see the impact. Just take look at the Ford Maverick. Made in Mexico at a lower wages initially and sold at the base price of $20k 3 years ago. Today, the same truck is almost $30k before any tariff affects.

If we want to beat them, we have to change the equation. Its not a matter of fairness.

Which is why tariffs are so important. We are using them to level the playing field. That is what I meant.

 

[Jonger1150]

Nope. None of that is true, but that is my opinion. And since neither of us can predict the future, all we have are opinions.

I happen to believe we can compete with China if we put them on the ropes. Right now they are under the ropes and falling onto the concrete outside the ring with the tariffs we have imposed on them. Their entire economy is on the verge of collapse. Ours is far, far better. We will win. Definitely.

I believe we can and will beat them as long as the playing field is fair. And finally, it is. Nobody can beat us if the playing field is fair. Nobody.

I'm not so sure of this. I saw an article that there were protests in China, but no one outside of NYPost is reporting this. That's usually a sign of fake news.

 

[mkhuffman]

I'm not so sure of this. I saw an article that there were protests in China, but no one outside of NYPost is reporting this. That's usually a sign of fake news.

I heard there are factories shutting down in China, and workers are not getting paid, and the workers are protesting/rioting. Not only that, the real estate market is collapsing. They are on the edge of disaster.

And it is because the CCP tries to control everything, from birth rate to personal expression. And they murder people they don't like. It is not a good place, and doing business with them is immoral.

I get it - profits are good. But at some point, morality matters more. And now, morality is in sync with our plans to shut them out, and make a new world that does not inclue the CCP. At least that is what is happening, and what I hope continues. Their system of governence needs to fail, for the benefit of humaity.

 

[Jonger1150]

I heard there are factories shutting down in China, and workers are not getting paid, and the workers are protesting/rioting. Not only that, the real estate market is collapsing. They are on the edge of disaster.

And it is because the CCP tries to control everything, from birth rate to personal expression. And they murder people they don't like. It is not a good place, and doing business with them is immoral.

I get it - profits are good. But at some point, morality matters more. And now, morality is in sync with our plans to shut them out, and make a new world that does not inclue the CCP. At least that is what is happening, and what I hope continues. Their system of governence needs to fail, for the benefit of humaity.

Only the NYPost has this story. I'm skeptical.

 

[MidnightRivian]

Super thankful for Rivian honoring the original 2023 R1S / R1T price we agreed upon in 2021 and for helping us secure the original $7,500 Tax credit with no price / income restrictions.

I played it safe and kept my build below $80,000 as a hedge if the 2022 Tax credit didn't work.

The new EV tax updates killing the credits are a bummer if they pass and will set EV adoption back a couple years in the US.

 

[COdogman]

I heard there are factories shutting down in China, and workers are not getting paid, and the workers are protesting/rioting. Not only that, the real estate market is collapsing. They are on the edge of disaster.

And it is because the CCP tries to control everything, from birth rate to personal expression. And they murder people they don't like. It is not a good place, and doing business with them is immoral.

I get it - profits are good. But at some point, morality matters more. And now, morality is in sync with our plans to shut them out, and make a new world that does not inclue the CCP. At least that is what is happening, and what I hope continues. Their system of governence needs to fail, for the benefit of humaity.

Fighting immorality with more immorality is a race to the bottom.

 

[mkhuffman]

Fighting immorality with more immorality is a race to the bottom.

Chinese slave labor is equivalent with tariffs? Really?

 

[SANZC02]

Chinese slave labor is equivalent with tariffs? Really?

Pretty sure he was not referring to the tariff policy.

 

[mkhuffman]

Pretty sure he was not referring to the tariff policy.

Well then it must be about killing the tax credit, which again I don't understand why that is worse than slave labor. Because the tax credit is what this entire threat is about, right?

 

[SASSquatch]

In a way, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Subsidies like this one and the solar tax credit, artificially inflate the cost to the customer. Why wouldn't you raise the price by 27% or $7,500? If you know the customer is just going to get it back from the government?

EVs are generally money losers for OEMs because of the investment it takes to create infrastructure to build them and the components (especially the battery) far outweigh the costs of equivalent ICE vehicles.

Last time I checked, Rivian was still losing $35K per vehicle sold.

The point of the subsidy is to lower the bar of entry because vehicle costs will be too high while OEMs make the necessary investments to scale manufacturing to lower costs.

By taking away the subsidy, you disincentivize buyers from looking at EVs and you then end up with OEMs pulling back on EV rollout plans (like they are now).

This is a stupid, counterproductive, and ideologically motivated decision that will set back our transition away from ICE vehicles for a decade or more.

Par for the course for the 's in power...

 

[mkhuffman]

EVs are generally money losers for OEMs because of the investment it takes to create infrastructure to build them and the components (especially the battery) far outweigh the costs of equivalent ICE vehicles.

Last time I checked, Rivian was still losing $35K per vehicle sold.

The point of the subsidy is to lower the bar of entry because vehicle costs will be too high while OEMs make the necessary investments to scale manufacturing to lower costs.

By taking away the subsidy, you disincentivize buyers from looking at EVs and you then end up with OEMs pulling back on EV rollout plans (like they are now).

This is a stupid, counterproductive, and ideologically motivated decision that will set back our transition away from ICE vehicles for a decade or more.

Par for the course for the 's in power...

Only the government is capable of determining the future of our personal transportation? Why can't the free market decide?

Personally, I didn't choose to drive an electric vehicle because of a government incentive or a government mandate. I think it's better transportation. I think it's more fun, and I hate getting gas. To me, it's a better way to drive.

Why do you think the government has to force people to do things they don't want to do? I think the free market will decide that electric cars are better, when they really are better. And it's very close to being that way.

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