EV Incentives ending on Sept 30? Any workaround?

[mkg3]

I hear you and in a perfect world we'd waive a wand and eliminate fossil fuels...

So many unintended consequences to this statement.

Off the top of my head, this would mean that we stop flying across the country or internationally, no freighter cargo ships importing or exporting goods across the sea, all plastics would go away. and until most manufacturing equipment can be powered by renewable energy, almost nothing would be produced/manufactured.

I realize the comment is in the context of EREV but in the perfect world, eliminating fossil fuels until viable alternatives are available, making go away for the sake of EV is not a perfect solution.

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[Yossarian]

Rivian is not the only one that will be affected. I have to wonder what things are like in the Slate and Telo truck head offices.

I agree, but believe that EV sales are likely to be pretty negatively impacted, and that the reduced demand will make it difficult for all producers of EVs, not just the new companies. Ditto for pretty much everthing related to alternative energy.

I wrote very long and detailed remarks with a lot of information and comment, but since everyone's time is valuable, decided post only this TLDR version:
We just made what can only be seen as an own goal regarding public policy for alternative energy generally, and regarding EVs specifically. The Chinese are well ahead of us in both areas, and the recent actions by Congress and the President will almost certainly put us further behind, perhaps permanently ceding a large and growing market to the Chinese.

 

[SASSquatch]

So many unintended consequences to this statement.

Off the top of my head, this would mean that we stop flying across the country or internationally, no freighter cargo ships importing or exporting goods across the sea, all plastics would go away. and until most manufacturing equipment can be powered by renewable energy, almost nothing would be produced/manufactured.

I realize the comment is in the context of EREV but in the perfect world, eliminating fossil fuels until viable alternatives are available, making go away for the sake of EV is not a perfect solution.

Taking my statement out of context is really meaningless. It is implied that removing fossil fuels requires a viable alternative.

 

[iansriv]

If it was that easy, Rivian would have done it already.

On a new vehicle, first time production, there is little to no chance that the R2 quality will exceed current R1 quality, initially. I hope I am wrong on this...

Not easy, but definitely needs the focus to be more on QC. I was hoping the R1 lessons would trickle down to the R2 and the quality improve. Cheers.

 

[renderpaz]

FWIW Tesla went multiple *years* without the federal tax credit, everyone predicted bankruptcy, disaster, didn't happen.

New car buyers even at the R2 price point are not exactly bargain shopping, tax credit or not. Many only want an EV and very importantly, many only want a Rivian (previously Tesla). The brands that will hurt the most from the loss of the tax credit are the commodity EVs (Hyundai, Kia, GM, Ford, etc). Granted they have done a good job in recent years, but all those brands also make gas cars and hybrids to cross shop.

Buying a new EV will become a statement again. My prediction: Rivian will see limited financial impact from the loss of the tax credit.

 

[DuoRivians]

FWIW Tesla went multiple *years* without the federal tax credit, everyone predicted bankruptcy, disaster, didn't happen.

New car buyers even at the R2 price point are not exactly bargain shopping, tax credit or not. Many only want an EV and very importantly, many only want a Rivian (previously Tesla). The brands that will hurt the most from the loss of the tax credit are the commodity EVs (Hyundai, Kia, GM, Ford, etc). Granted they have done a good job in recent years, but all those brands also make gas cars and hybrids to cross shop.

Buying a new EV will become a statement again. My prediction: Rivian will see limited financial impact from the loss of the tax credit.

Strongly disagree. Rivian will be affected by this. And Rivian loses all regulatory credits revenue too, which Rivian received $325 million in 2024. These combined present material existential threats to Rivian.

Rivian may be profitable eventually, but it’ll require significantly more cash raises somehow.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Exactly why EREVs are going to be exceedingly popular in the near term and why Rivian should be working with VW to co-develop one using shared tech.

I’m not sure that Rivian should do a range extender but I do agree the concept will be very popular in the US. My older brother has been pretty much against buying any EV. The main reason is that he can easily drive over 300 miles as he goes around to various job sites. However, the Scout Terra Harvester has his attention. For one he thinks is gorgeous but most importantly to him it should have 500 miles of range.

EREVs are a bridge to bring the majority of ICE owners into the EV world. The bulk of those folks will eventually see that a pure. EV can easily suit their needs and make that transition.

 

[SASSquatch]

I’m not sure that Rivian should do a range extender but I do agree the concept will be very popular in the US. My older brother has been pretty much against buying any EV. The main reason is that he can easily drive over 300 miles as he goes around to various job sites. However, the Scout Terra Harvester has his attention. For one he thinks is gorgeous but most importantly to him it should have 500 miles of range.

EREVs are a bridge to bring the majority of ICE owners into the EV world. The bulk of those folks will eventually see that a pure. EV can easily suit their needs and make that transition.

I'm with you on Rivian not doing one - I don't think it fits their brand philosophy. But, they desperately need cash so my thinking is that they could co-develop one with VW under a VW branding and provide their expertise and IP on the battery, software, electric motor and architecture side of the equation.

VW pretty much has the ICE side locked down. A co-developed EREV could be a logical extension of their existing strategic partnership.

 

[captainjp]

Elect a new president, house and senate. That’s the workaround.

 

[Thedude]

Elect a new president, house and senate. That’s the workaround.

We play that game every few years and it never gets any better.

 

[McLovin]

VW pretty much has the ICE side locked down.

Just so long as it’s not a “clean diesel”…

 

[SASSquatch]

Just so long as it’s not a “clean diesel”…

Their "clean diesel" turned into Electrify America which, while it has its warts, is still the second largest DCFS charging network in NA.

 

[McLovin]

Their "clean diesel" turned into Electrify America which, while it has its warts, is still the second largest DCFS charging network in NA.

Their “clean diesel” was a farce, and I benefited greatly because of their deceit. Two diesel Touaregs and one Audi diesel A3 essentially got me 6 years of no car payments.

Of course, I wasn’t entirely happy to learn I was polluting the air at 5 times more than advertised (<= I made that number up…forgot how bad it really was), but what could I do? I was told I was getting vehicles that (a) got great mileage (they did), (b) had improved performance (they did), and (c) were good for the environment (…not so good…).

Two out of three ain’t bad, is it?

 

[Thedude]

Their “clean diesel” was a farce, and I benefited greatly because of their deceit. Two diesel Touaregs and one Audi diesel A3 essentially got me 6 years of no car payments.

Of course, I wasn’t entirely happy to learn I was polluting the air at 5 times more than advertised (<= I made that number up…forgot how bad it really was), but what could I do? I was told I was getting vehicles that (a) got great mileage (they did), (b) had improved performance (they did), and (c) were good for the environment (…not so good…).

Two out of three ain’t bad, is it?

When you consider that very few people bought VW diesels to be clean they were great vehicles. I loved mine, reasonably priced, good performance, 50mpg, not much to complain about.

 

[renderpaz]

I know they are popular with a particular group here, but EREVs serve a narrow audience and aren't worth the additional cost for most buyers and the additional manufacturing and service complexity certainly isn't worth Rivian's time. To me it's a product for people who are in denial that what they want (or need) is an ICE truck (people who regularly travel long distances and don't like charging, or who tow).

Three hundred+ mile range EVs with an adequate charging network works great for 98% of new ev buyers. It's the best product

@DuoRivians The majority of Rivian's regulatory credit sales are CARB ZEV credits, which by my understanding do not go away with OBBBA (yet).

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