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savethemanual
Well-Known Member
Also, Ford announced its next gen EV platform today. More competition coming soon, and they're doing a mid size truck!
https://insideevs.com/news/768601/ford-affordable-electric-truck-universal-ev-platform/
https://insideevs.com/news/768601/ford-affordable-electric-truck-universal-ev-platform/
JeepEVer
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The Georgia factory seems like a distraction given that the R2 launch in Illinois is a make-or-break for the company. And things are only getting more challenging for Rivian with the loss of EV credits and tariffs. Needing the capacity in Georgia would be a good problem to have, if Rivian can survive.
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savethemanual
Well-Known Member
Would be nice to see an R3 launch shortly after R2, I know there is huge demand for that one. They released R1 T/S and the EDV nearly at the same time.....why not do it again
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mkg3
Well-Known Member
I've read the Ford announcement about this and it strikes me as over promise and under deliver.
First and foremost, how can Ford, with all the union wages, concessions and the legacy cost structure and liabilities build and sell $30K EV truck when Slate is barely making it near there.
If they can, I will obviously tip my hat to them. I recently sold all of my Ford shares (1,500) because I gave up on Jim Farley. I do not believe he can get it done. Bill Ford needs to bring in another Alan Mullaly to turn Ford around and be competitive.
BigSkies
Well-Known Member
I’ve tried to do the math. I’m pretty confident Rivian can’t get to cash-flow positive without the GA capacity. They can significantly cut cash-burn with just Normal, but not fully close the cash flow gap.
andrewgrhogg
Well-Known Member
Heres my prediction:
1. Lack of EV tax credits for buyers will decrease sales/revenue
2. Tariffs on imported parts will increase costs and either increase price and reduce sales or decrease profit per truck
3. Inability to sell carbon credits will hurt profitability
4. Upcoming stagflation courtesy of BBB and Tariffs will keep inflation high, reduce employment, drive higher wages, reduce sales, increase costs, and overall decrease revenue and profitability
In a nutshell...Rivian is F&*$ked and will either cease operations when it hits a cash crunch or will be bought by or merged with another large auto company...or someone like Amazon buying assets in a fire sale through a stock swap.
1. Lack of EV tax credits for buyers will decrease sales/revenue
2. Tariffs on imported parts will increase costs and either increase price and reduce sales or decrease profit per truck
3. Inability to sell carbon credits will hurt profitability
4. Upcoming stagflation courtesy of BBB and Tariffs will keep inflation high, reduce employment, drive higher wages, reduce sales, increase costs, and overall decrease revenue and profitability
In a nutshell...Rivian is F&*$ked and will either cease operations when it hits a cash crunch or will be bought by or merged with another large auto company...or someone like Amazon buying assets in a fire sale through a stock swap.
Vantripping
Active Member
I too am all for fair market competition, but we do not have a fair market and instead one that has grossly subsidized large vehicles and oil consumption for years. Section 179 allows for tax deduction of ~$31k per "heavy" vehicle, allowing nearly anyone to erase much to all of the cost of a large vehicle. This is entirely there to encourage the purchase of large vehicles, and used for everything from family SUVs and pickups, vans, G-wagons and Hummers. I'd say a >$31,500 deduction is a far greater tax payer subsidy than a $7,500 one per vehicle, and one that has been in place for decades but significantly increased since 2010 and continues to every year.
Additionally, oil and gas companies have received well north of $15 billion per year in tax payer subsidies for many decades, even though some of the most profitable companies in the world. So if you want to speak to tax subsidies, be objective as the US federal government has provided very favorable tax payer subsidies to gasoline and large vehicles for many decades in amounts that far exceed subsidies for EVs or power generation.
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Vantripping
Active Member
There is one silver lining: recent dollar deflation of over 10% and likely to continue for some time will increase imported cars by this same amount, regardless of any added tariffs. While this is overall very bad for US consumers, as dollar deflation decreases our purchasing power, it does make vehicles that are more US made lower cost relative to imported vehicles. However, most Jeeps and Dodges are highly imported, as are many other "American" brands, so both the tariffs and dollar devaluation will also negatively impact many US brands while overall raising costs across the board for all vehicles. This in turn decreases demand, which will in turn reduce costs solely on demand reduction while overall trends will be negative for all. Take that as a silver lining.
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Vantripping
Active Member
The only free market is one without tariffs and tax incentives. Not just for vehicles but also for the fuel. Then let the market compete equally.
mkg3
Well-Known Member
What a Debby Downer you are...
. .jk1. It will reduce sales initially forcing Rivian and other EV makers to work harder to bring better products at lower costs to the market. Many more people understands that EVs are superior commuter vehicles than the number of current EV owner population so it will be a transition period for couple of years.
2. Since Rivian still does not make a profit per vehicle, logical conclusion. That said, if they don't figure it out your prediction of Rivian being acquired is likely.
3. Rivian has never been profitable without the carbon credit so RJ and the management team have a steep hill to climb. I think RJ will have to choose between Rivian surviving as an independent company or him moving up as a Chairman and hand the CEO to an experience and proven executive.
4. There will NOT be sustained inflation or stagflation from what I see. There will be white collar job losses due to AI efficiencies and increase in blue collar work for construction and many hands-on kinds of employment. There are so many factors such as energy prices, foreign exchange rates and corporate profit margins that touches every product sold so just because there is tariff does not equate to all the cost being passed onto the consumer. Media is painting a very simplistic picture.
Let's hope that Rivian can get to R2 and be able to deliver quality product at the competitive price points.
Vantripping
Active Member
One does not have to believe in climate change causes to understand negative impacts of fossil fuel consumption. Simply route all tailpipes into the vehicle and let the driver and passengers decide if they think the breathing of these emissions is good for them. then let the market decide their choice of fuel.
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I’ve got something way better than a subsidy we don’t deserve. Buy used. Save $25k. Mathing says 25k is better than 7.5k….
andrewgrhogg
Well-Known Member
Re #4 I would really like to see what you are seeing. I can’t tell you how many small companies that I buy from have already sent emails about price increases. And small companies drive the economy, as does consumer spending. Prices are going up and will continue to go up in a step function to compensate for the tariffs. That will drive inflation. Separately from AI, companies will decrease hiring and do layoffs due to those rising prices and related reductions in sales. It’s pretty simple economics. There WILL be stagflation, and it will probably show up in another 1-2 quarters. Tho you won’t know it cause Trump is about to lie about employment and inflation data. But people will feel it when they lose jobs and keep seeing prices go up!What a Debby Downer you are...
1. It will reduce sales initially forcing Rivian and other EV makers to work harder to bring better products at lower costs to the market. Many more people understands that EVs are superior commuter vehicles than the number of current EV owner population so it will be a transition period for couple of years.
2. Since Rivian still does not make a profit per vehicle, logical conclusion. That said, if they don't figure it out your prediction of Rivian being acquired is likely.
3. Rivian has never been profitable without the carbon credit so RJ and the management team have a steep hill to climb. I think RJ will have to choose between Rivian surviving as an independent company or him moving up as a Chairman and hand the CEO to an experience and proven executive.
4. There will NOT be sustained inflation or stagflation from what I see. There will be white collar job losses due to AI efficiencies and increase in blue collar work for construction and many hands-on kinds of employment. There are so many factors such as energy prices, foreign exchange rates and corporate profit margins that touches every product sold so just because there is tariff does not equate to all the cost being passed onto the consumer. Media is painting a very simplistic picture.
Let's hope that Rivian can get to R2 and be able to deliver quality product at the competitive price points.
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