R2 Launching Twice: G2 v. G3, R1S Deals, etc.

[Gen(R3)Xer]

I just watched the YouTuber The Duke of Middleville and he has some very interesting points about the upcoming R2 Launch. Mostly speculation, but interesting nonetheless. He’s a Rivian owner and fan. Some topics for discussion:

• Launching two R2s (within 6 months of each other)
• R2 Gen 2 vs. R2 Gen 3 (LiDar and more powerful hardware incoming)
• The Osborne Effect (who will wait?)
• A commonly slower production ramp for a new model that also buys time for Gen 3 hardware production
• Potential R1S Deals to keep things moving

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[mkg3]

I just watched the YouTuber The Duke of Middleville...

• R2 Gen 2 vs. R2 Gen 3 (LiDar and more powerful hardware incoming)

The characterization, I believe, is incorrect. Adding LiDAR and/or adding another motor (i.e., Tri-motor) does not change the generation of the vehicle architecture. Simply further additional options.

Just look at gen 2 R1, as they introduced the new quad. Not a new generation. Neither are adding LiDAR and another motor on R2.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Who will wait? Does it really require much thought/speculation?

Those with FOMO about not having LiDAR.
Those who place that level of autonomy as their #1 car purchase criteria.
Those who drive in dense fog... A LOT.
All of the above, plus a little patience and the means to afford the up-charge.

People got from A to B just fine before autonomy existed. Gen 1 peeps with only Driver+ got from A to B just fine. Gen 2 peeps are doing just fine and will soon see improvements. Like off-road capability, I wager most people don't actually need it. But want is a different thing.

I mean... Exciting development for the company's growth/timeline. But, at the same time, is it really that big of a deal? It's evolutionary. Not revolutionary. Buy the car you want, at the time of your choosing and be happy.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Who will wait? Does it really require much thought/speculation?

Those with FOMO about not having LiDAR.
Those who place that level of autonomy as their #1 car purchase criteria.
Those who drive in dense fog... A LOT.
All of the above, plus a little patience and the means to afford the up-charge.

People got from A to B just fine before autonomy existed. Gen 1 peeps with only Driver+ got from A to B just fine. Gen 2 peeps are doing just fine and will soon seen improvements. Like off-road capability, I wager most people don't actually need it. But want is a different thing.

I mean... Exciting development for the company's growth/timeline. But, at the same time, is it really that big of a deal? It's evolutionary. Not revolutionary. Buy the car you want, at the time of your choosing and be happy.

Sure. There will be early adopters that don’t care about LiDar and Gen 3 HW. Most super popular EV influencers will probably just get a press car. The majority of people will get the updated version and forget this ever happened.

One interesting thing that wasn’t brought up is resale value. Even if you don’t use the autonomy features most people want to future proof their vehicle, so they can get the best trade in value down the line.

The question is how much value does LiDar and Gen3 HW add, if any? My last vehicle was a sport model, but it was 16 years old and had 276,000 miles on it. Those extras didn’t mean a thing at that point.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

How many buy cars based on resale? Let’s be honest. For most it’s instant gratification. I love it. I need it. Can I swing it? Yes? Off to the races. And influencers can change cars as often as they change clothes. Not really representative of larger consumer base. They’re outliers. Just as those who buy with resale being top of mind. Has resale of various iterations of Teslas really differ that much? The one thing people don’t realize is the huge depreciation right after they take delivery of a new EV, regardless of generation. Like 20~30+% of purchase price. If resale is all they care about, then they should be very scared about buying any new EV.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

One interesting thing that wasn’t brought up is resale value.

My dude, have you been on this website? Resale value comes up so often I'm honestly sick of it. Why are you making financial decisions on a car's resale value when you never know if you'll get into an accident or how fast the depreciation will be? from what I hear from tesla owners, there isn't much difference in resale whether you have it or not.

 

[ndmiller]

There is no chance Rivian will make 2 versions of the R2 for launch, that's insanity, no-one serious would take on that task.

I also doubt it will happen in 6 months, they have too many other things to deal with, 100% made up speculation.

The strategy is simple, R2 is Rivian's path to volume and they don't care about this kind of nonsense, they need volume to offset R&D. All this other noise they aren't even listening to, they are executing strategy simple as that.

 

[SANZC02]

….. If resale is all they care about, then they should be very scared about buying any new EV.

I would go a step further and say if resale is the driving factor they should never take the initial hit buying any “new” vehicle and just swim in the used vehicle pool.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

My dude, have you been on this website? Resale value comes up so often I'm honestly sick of it. Why are you making financial decisions on a car's resale value when you never know if you'll get into an accident or how fast the depreciation will be? from what I hear from tesla owners, there isn't much difference in resale whether you have it or not.

I meant brought up in this video, not on the forums.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I would go a step further and say if resale is the driving factor they should never take the initial hit buying any “new” vehicle and just swim in the used vehicle pool.

That's what I meant, but since we're speculating about EVs specifically. And if they have FOMO on the latest tech and also acutely sensitive of depreciation... God help them? Never buy any car. Elmo has a Cybertaxi for that?

This isn't a rare Bugatti, Ferrari or special edition Porsche. It's a depreciating asset. Odd to me why resale value is even a criteria.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

I would go a step further and say if resale is the driving factor they should never take the initial hit buying any “new” vehicle and just swim in the used vehicle pool.

You can get some serious deals in the used EV market for sure. One interesting thing I hadn’t considered that the video brought up was the potential for R1S deals, like lease deals. I hope that becomes a reality.

 

[skyguyscott]

The R2 has not launched yet, so was there a generation of R2 before the launch generation, and if not, wouldn't the launch edition of the R2 be Gen 1?

My understanding is that the R2 is obviously going to launch without Lidar, in part, I think, to meet the stated launch price point of $49,000.

It seems to me, that if you want an R2, and you don't care about LiDAR, your best option is going to be to wait until the R2 with Lidar launches, and pick up a used R2 purchased by someone who now just has to have the lidar. You get a practically new R2 for even less than the $49,000 launch price.

And in terms of generations, it's possible that the R2 with lidar will be GEN 1.5 since what you actually have is the same model only with a different package of options, as opposed to the base model.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

The R2 has not launched yet, so was there a generation of R2 before the launch generation, and if not, wouldn't the launch edition of the R2 be Gen 1?

My understanding is that the R2 is obviously going to launch without Lidar, in part, I think, to meet the stated launch price point of $49,000.

It seems to me, that if you want an R2, and you don't care about LiDAR, your best option is going to be to wait until the R2 with Lidar launches, and pick up a used R2 purchased by someone who now just has to have the lidar. You get a practically new R2 for even less than the $49,000 launch price.

And in terms of generations, it's possible that the R2 with lidar will be GEN 1.5 since what you actually have is the same model only with a different package of options, as opposed to the base model.

The stated launch price is $45,000 and that is only for single motor/standard battery, so it will not launch technically at that price. The reason is Gen 2 is because it will be using Gen 2 wiring and architecture I believe, so it has things in common with the Gen 2 line up. I'm assuming when the Gen 3 comes out for the R2, the R1 will be updating to Gen 3 soon after as well.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

The R2 has not launched yet, so was there a generation of R2 before the launch generation, and if not, wouldn't the launch edition of the R2 be Gen 1?

My understanding is that the R2 is obviously going to launch without Lidar, in part, I think, to meet the stated launch price point of $49,000.

It seems to me, that if you want an R2, and you don't care about LiDAR, your best option is going to be to wait until the R2 with Lidar launches, and pick up a used R2 purchased by someone who now just has to have the lidar. You get a practically new R2 for even less than the $49,000 launch price.

And in terms of generations, it's possible that the R2 with lidar will be GEN 1.5 since what you actually have is the same model only with a different package of options, as opposed to the base model.

I think what he meant was Gen 2 HW (hardware) vs. Gen 3 HW, which has LiDar and a more powerful in-house chipset that gives it enough compute power to handle more advanced autonomous driving and AI features.

Some people don’t want to be left behind, like some of the R1T and R1S folks do with Gen 1 hardware. Some people don’t care either way. I guess they can buy the earlier vehicles without Gen 3 HW. To each their own.

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