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SwampNut

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I’m curious if you have any thoughts as to why so few Tesla model Y owners subscribe to or purchased FSD?
Probably because the free Autopilot is so damn good, and takes over 95% of the workload already? That's my guess, why I used it, and why some of my friends say they use it. I have two friends who pay for FSD and their review of it is quite phenomenal.
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This is the thing you guys don't get. You guys think working fine for the vast majority of the time is good enough. The problem is that 'fringe odd situation' doesn't mean a simple inconvenience, it can mean death or serious injury to yourself or someone else. It's not something I would gamble my life on, nor would I recommend anyone else do so.

Let me phrase it this way: What would be an acceptable number of deaths you could live with, given the current state of the technology?
 

SwampNut

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Let me phrase it this way: What would be an acceptable number of deaths you could live with, given the current state of the technology?
Fewer than the number of deaths caused by meatbag drivers, which we've seen is clearly the case. It's already a win that is only getting better.
 

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Probably because the free Autopilot is so damn good, and takes over 95% of the workload already? That's my guess, why I used it, and why some of my friends say they use it. I have two friends who pay for FSD and their review of it is quite phenomenal.
Is autopilot better than it was 3 years ago? It was terrible on my model Y. I had the basic. It shut off during highway lane changes (blinker to change lanes, shuts off, turn it back on, blinker to change lanes, shut off). I hated it. (Edit: oh god the phantom breaking. Under a highway sign I had to be ready to hit the gas . . . I assume it must be better now).

Anyway, that still puzzles me. I am told that FSD, in its current iteration, is mind blowing and game changing. Yet hardly anyone pays for it. I guess that just confuses me.
 

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I’m curious if you have any thoughts as to why so few Tesla model Y owners subscribe to or purchased FSD? If it’s so good, so mind blowing, wouldn’t the people who have access to it readily subscribe? I admit it’s been a few years since I’ve been in an FSD car (it absolutely sucked). I can grasp why it would be a great feature. I don’t really care at the moment about that until it becomes true full self driving but that’s just my opinion. I’m wondering why more people don’t subscribe if it’s so great in its current iteration.
Price. $8,000 is a lot of money for a one time purchase and $99 a month is also a lot for a monthly subscription. I'd imagine the take-up rate would have been higher if priced at $5,000 a month for the one time payment and $50 for the monthly subscription.

Not a necessity, so the price isn't justified, but as a nice to have, a cheaper price would be more palatable.
 

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SwampNut

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Is autopilot better than it was 3 years ago?
I last had a Tesla two years ago, so don't really know. I recently drove with it and it seemed just as good as it was on my car, which was great. But that was only maybe 20 miles (nearly all on AP).

It shut off during highway lane changes (blinker to change lanes, shuts off, turn it back on, blinker to change lanes, shut off). I hated it.
Yes, that's how basic AP works, I put about 30k miles on it. Loved it. EAP manages the lane changes.

Yet hardly anyone pays for it. I guess that just confuses me.
People are idiots. This is like the people who refuse to use even just cruise control "because I want full control." Remember that in surveys, something like 80% of people think they are a better driver than average. And the people with the highest self-assessments had the most wrecks.

50% of people are below average intelligence.
 

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Price. $8,000 is a lot of money for a one time purchase and $99 a month is also a lot for a monthly subscription. I'd imagine the take-up rate would have been higher if priced at $5,000 a month for the one time payment and $50 for the monthly subscription.

Not a necessity, so the price isn't justified, but as a nice to have, a cheaper price would be more palatable.
yea. I think there is a disconnect between what “regular” people value and what tech-focused/tesla fans value. I think most people view current FSD as a good level 2 system which isn’t worth the $$ where as the Tesla fans/tech folks think it is mind blowing. Maybe both can be true.
 

SwampNut

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yea. I think there is a disconnect between what “regular” people value and what tech-focused/tesla fans value. I think most people view current FSD as a good level 2 system which isn’t worth the $$ where as the Tesla fans/tech folks think it is mind blowing. Maybe both can be true.
The guy I know who gushes the most about FSD is VERY non-technical, and partly towards anti-tech. Or at least, just having things be simple and not actually see the tech. He commutes 60 miles a day and says it's just amazing, both in how it works, and how much less stress he has. He reports nearly zero hands on time.

I'm the opposite; full tech, I want to see and screw with everything. The Comma is fine, does 98% of the work. Tesla AP was good for me, because I'm happy to manage whatever it can't handle, and I take a few of the tech to understand it. FSD is for people who don't want to think about it.
 

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yea. I think there is a disconnect between what “regular” people value and what tech-focused/tesla fans value. I think most people view current FSD as a good level 2 system which isn’t worth the $$ where as the Tesla fans/tech folks think it is mind blowing. Maybe both can be true.
FSD V14 is good enough. Certainly not perfect, but will take you from point A to point B with minimal intervention. At $99 a month though, I'm driving myself. If it were say $25, I could see it an assist for commuting duty. While they are still issues to be worked out on the actual system, the bigger problem for adoption moving forward IMO will be price.
 

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SwampNut

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Yeah I’m I’m going to go with the cardio-thoracic surgeon that only nicked one or two arteries…
Funny thing is, it's impossible to know whether that's sarcasm or serious. I have no idea how many nicked arteries are safe, or not, and whether the alternative is a surgeon that never nicks any but every 100th patient has a very serious/deadly mistake happen.
 

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Funny thing is, it's impossible to know whether that's sarcasm or serious. I have no idea how many nicked arteries are safe, or not, and whether the alternative is a surgeon that never nicks any but every 100th patient has a very serious/deadly mistake happen.
Or how many arteries have been almost nicked, nicked, or patients killed by that surgeon because the hospital claims the data on that subject is proprietary while advertising them to the public as the safest. :rolleyes:
 

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Let me phrase it this way: What would be an acceptable number of deaths you could live with, given the current state of the technology?
This is what actuaries and economists consider when determining societal good, or insurance rates, and the like. So far since insurance companies are charging less for using AP/FSD, we can surmise their findings of fact for the improved safety. I haven't seen any strong economist opinions on this from a societal impact perspective.
 
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This is what actuaries and economists consider when determining societal good, or insurance rates, and the like. So far since insurance companies are charging less for using AP/FSD, we can surmise their findings of fact for the improved safety. I haven't seen any strong economist opinions on this from a societal impact perspective.
Companies? Other than Lemonade, who else? I’d say Tesla insurance doesn’t count, because of course they offer the discount. Suckering people into purchasing FSD.
 

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I’m curious if you have any thoughts as to why so few Tesla model Y owners subscribe to or purchased FSD? If it’s so good, so mind blowing, wouldn’t the people who have access to it readily subscribe?
You must have missed the earnings call last a few weeks back. Tesla is now publishing their FSD figures. There are currently "1.1 million" active subscribers to Tesla's FSD which represents about 12% of all their cars on the road (10million).
I forgot the breakdown numbers for people that purchased it out right but the amount of people paying $99 month to month is quite substantial, I remember it working out to about $350 million dollars a year in revenue. Don't forget FSD is most optimal on the latest hw4 hardware. I believe they uptake rate for newer cars is around 30%.
And this is people paying for the "supervised" version. When it's "unsupervised" like the current robotaxis that are on the road, imagine how many people will be paying then.
The moment your Tesla (unsupervised) can take your kids to and from their part-time jobs, little league, friends houses, the mall, take Grandma to her doctor appointment ect....all instead of you being a full-time taxi driver, there are millions of parents who will be begging Tesla to take their money.
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