Self driving update: Gen 2 and Gen 3 Autonomy on R2 should be similar for a "couple of years"

[Ralph]

The problem with this is that Tesla has completely rewritten FSD since v12 (and several times prior) because they took the wrong approach. Now they (probably) have the right approach.

Does this approach have a solution for the heavy rain, fog and snow incurred in large swaths of the country for several months a year?

Yeah, I know, the driver is expected to take control under these "limited visibility" conditions. And that is perfectly fine for me.

But if this version of FSD is supposed to be the foundation that is used in Robotaxi to eliminate the need for people to drive, it does not *appear* (!) to be the final approach.

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[RandomMcRandomFace]

Here we go again. Wake me up when FSD is actually unsupervised.

 

[Ralph]

This has already happened...

A significant achievement.

I'll be accused of moving the goalposts; but I didn't set them.

Repeat this during winter. And note that the same owner was seeing how long he could go without intervention. Weather stopped him in Wisconsin.

Does this imply that there will always be situations that FSD and perhaps the competition simply cannot deal with?

Tech will will continue to advance as it almost always does. We are very far away from a fully mature system with all edge cases solved.

 

[Dark-Fx]

A significant achievement.

I'll be accused of moving the goalposts; but I didn't set them.

Repeat this during winter. And note that the same owner was seeing how long he could go without intervention. Weather stopped him in Wisconsin.

Does this imply that there will always be situations that FSD and perhaps the competition simply cannot deal with?

Tech will will continue to advance as it almost always does. We are very far away from a fully mature system with all edge cases solved.

I still don't know why able bodied people would even want this anyway. Put a blind person behind the wheel if you want to convince me.

 

[shandering]

Repeat this during winter. And note that the same owner was seeing how long he could go without intervention. Weather stopped him in Wisconsin.

These were during winter except for the canada one.

More than 55% of americans do not live somewhere that hits regular freezing temps in the U.S.

You can drive a significant portion of the U.S. without seeing snow

 

[NinjaWrap]

This has already happened...

Actually what was said in the quote from a decade ago still cannot happen. They said without any human input including charging

 

[NinjaWrap]

A significant achievement.

I'll be accused of moving the goalposts; but I didn't set them.

Repeat this during winter. And note that the same owner was seeing how long he could go without intervention. Weather stopped him in Wisconsin.

Does this imply that there will always be situations that FSD and perhaps the competition simply cannot deal with?

Tech will will continue to advance as it almost always does. We are very far away from a fully mature system with all edge cases solved.

I have no clue how he’s done this. My truck never wants to park in a decent way. If I tried to go 100% FSD I would never be able to charge at home because it wants to pull in nose first and I have to back in to charge. I would have to allow it to get speeding tickets all the time and I would have to be ok with it driving below the posted speed and slower than traffic in other areas where the speed limit is wrong. I would also have to be ok with it taking wrong turns or being in the wrong lane in some places.

 

[Ralph]

These were during winter except for the canada one.

More than 55% of americans do not live somewhere that hits regular freezing temps in the U.S.

You can drive a significant portion of the U.S. without seeing snow

I couldn't easily find a map of the routes. If Wisconsin snow stopped his non-intervention streak, a planner would have to be very selective with dates to go coast to coast through the top third of the country successfully. Or very often.

And I suppose 55% and "regularly" is something. I assume that there is another rather significant percentage that have very regular downpours and/or fog. Doesn't a very large percentage of the population live near the coast where these events are part of every day life?

I'm *not* trying to demean the accomplishments of FSD or Waymo or any other solution. But I do think it's important to understand what accomplishments self-driving demos such as this are actually showing.

And more importantly, not showing. Let's start with your number (for now):

1. 45% of Americans DO live where there is regularly freezing temp - You imply you agree this presents problems to FSD.

2. Some other percentage "irregularly" experience freezing temps. Pick a number.

3. There are a large number of Americans that live in (coastal?) areas where there is quite often either blinding rain or fog. On a regular and irregular bases.

4. There are other edge cases (school zones, etc.)

We might be down to as little as 25% of drivers for whom current tech is close to sufficient to be truly full FSD. NOTE: I did not say or imply anything disparaging pertaining to what the systems actually can do.

Again, the point is not that these systems are useless or evil. But the edge cases are different for each and are much more common for many more people than a video circus trick implies.

 

[Ralph]

I have no clue how he’s done this. My truck never wants to park in a decent way. If I tried to go 100% FSD I would never be able to charge at home because it wants to pull in nose first and I have to back in to charge. I would have to allow it to get speeding tickets all the time and I would have to be ok with it driving below the posted speed and slower than traffic in other areas where the speed limit is wrong. I would also have to be ok with it taking wrong turns or being in the wrong lane in some places.

A very cherry picked route might account for it.

 

[shandering]

I couldn't easily find a map of the routes. If Wisconsin snow stopped his non-intervention streak, a planner would have to be very selective with dates to go coast to coast through the top third of the country successfully. Or very often.

Snow will be an issue in the medium term.

And I suppose 55% and "regularly" is something. I assume that there is another rather significant percentage that have very regular downpours and/or fog. Doesn't a very large percentage of the population live near the coast where these events are part of every day life?

Fog and rain is not a problem for FSD. Tesla has not had an issue in fog for years. Rain is already superhuman performance. Car sees lane markings really well in heavy rain and at night. Reaction is fast and car can also counteract understeer/oversteer.

1. 45% of Americans DO live where there is regularly freezing temp - You imply you agree this presents problems to FSD.

2. Some other percentage "irregularly" experience freezing temps. Pick a number.

Tesla already works in snow. Keep in mind when he had a snow disengagement it was a pretty extreme circumstance.

4. There are other edge cases (school zones, etc.)

School zone is not a problem. At scale you can map them with the times they are active and the speeds.

Tesla already recognizes school zone flashing signs.

We might be down to as little as 25% of drivers for whom current tech is close to sufficient to be truly full FSD. NOTE: I did not say or imply anything disparaging pertaining to what the systems actually can do.

Again, the point is not that these systems are useless or evil. But the edge cases are different for each and are much more common for many more people than a video circus trick implies.

They work better than you think. Most of the issues currently are speed limits and navigation mistakes. They are not safety mistakes at this point.

When they drove across canada it was extremely hard. They drove on what looked like rural roads for half of it. There were multi lane highways with no lane lines. All types of weather. They passed through difficult construction zones and the car even had to stop for 2 construction flaggers. None of this was cherry picked.

The car had to identify closed roads and detour on its own.

 

[mdpa]

I couldn't easily find a map of the routes. If Wisconsin snow stopped his non-intervention streak, a planner would have to be very selective with dates to go coast to coast through the top third of the country successfully. Or very often.

And I suppose 55% and "regularly" is something. I assume that there is another rather significant percentage that have very regular downpours and/or fog. Doesn't a very large percentage of the population live near the coast where these events are part of every day life?

I'm *not* trying to demean the accomplishments of FSD or Waymo or any other solution. But I do think it's important to understand what accomplishments self-driving demos such as this are actually showing.

And more importantly, not showing. Let's start with your number (for now):

1. 45% of Americans DO live where there is regularly freezing temp - You imply you agree this presents problems to FSD.

2. Some other percentage "irregularly" experience freezing temps. Pick a number.

3. There are a large number of Americans that live in (coastal?) areas where there is quite often either blinding rain or fog. On a regular and irregular bases.

4. There are other edge cases (school zones, etc.)

We might be down to as little as 25% of drivers for whom current tech is close to sufficient to be truly full FSD. NOTE: I did not say or imply anything disparaging pertaining to what the systems actually can do.

Again, the point is not that these systems are useless or evil. But the edge cases are different for each and are much more common for many more people than a video circus trick implies.

It’s arguably my first Winter with the FSD, but Maryland had unusually bad weather this year. I ran FSD in snow, heavy downpours, and fog. A few times I took over in snow but not often, and the improvements since March to FSD have been substantial. 99% of the time I am turning off FSD is because I want to drive more aggressively…looking for a Madder version of Mad Max.

 

[NinjaWrap]

Most of the issues currently are speed limits and navigation mistakes.

I have one spot FSD swerves into the shoulder during a turn instead of turning into the lane. That’s a big deal IMO.

Friday night I had a massive heavy braking event (with four other people in the truck with me) that I had no idea why until I looked at the footage and there was a bird or bat flying past in front of the windshield. Tons of posts about the bird issue recently even by Teslarati. FSD gives up in certain weather conditions and the cameras get dirty quickly in rain. Probably why robotaxis have washers (so dumb that our cars don’t).

 

[mdpa]

I have one spot FSD swerves into the shoulder during a turn instead of turning into the lane. That’s a big deal IMO.

Friday night I had a massive heavy braking event (with four other people in the truck with me) that I had no idea why until I looked at the footage and there was a bird or bat flying past in front of the windshield. Tons of posts about the bird issue recently even by Teslarati. FSD gives up in certain weather conditions and the cameras get dirty quickly in rain. Probably why robotaxis have washers (so dumb that our cars don’t).

I believe your perception about the current state of FSD is skewed. I’ve had versions that haven’t worked as well, and I’m looking forward to the upcoming pothole avoidance.

 

[NinjaWrap]

I believe your perception about the current state of FSD is skewed. I’ve had versions that haven’t worked as well, and I’m looking forward to the upcoming pothole avoidance.

I’ve been using FSD since before it was public beta (before safety scores) as early access. I use it all the time still today. I know it’s the best by a long shot. I also know that it is not close to being L4 everywhere. It’s L4 in a few places they have sent their lidar equipped ground truth fleet.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

From the manufacturer who can't make automatic windshield wipers work correctly, sure, let's hand over control of the vehicle in inclement weather

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