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Market Reality Check: When do Gen 2 Quads drop to double digits?

mkg3

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Selling R1's right now make Rivian $0 and actually they lose about $23k per R1 produced. So, your comments are the opposite. Once they hit cash flow positive and can survive without losses from the R2 expect major changes to pricing on the R1. It will not be acceptable for the R1 to continue to lose money so they either will kill it or increase price to make it profitable. Those are the only 2 options Rivian has. The R1 price is low now due to no alternative product. That has now changed with the R2.
There is one small problem in this assumption. There has to be buyers at the higher prices for the R1 vehicles. Currently there are newer high end EVs and Rivian will not be able to sell at the prices you state. They will just sit as inventory and will require carrying costs for Rivian's books.

Vast majority of high end EV buyers and those seeking highly capable off-road EVs do not make a large Venn diagram overlap.
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Time2Roll

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Selling R1's right now make Rivian $0 and actually they lose about $23k per R1 produced. So, your comments are the opposite. Once they hit cash flow positive and can survive without losses from the R2 expect major changes to pricing on the R1. It will not be acceptable for the R1 to continue to lose money so they either will kill it or increase price to make it profitable. Those are the only 2 options Rivian has. The R1 price is low now due to no alternative product. That has now changed with the R2.
Not sure what number are looked and yet until R2 was released the R1 was carrying the full administrative and factory burden. Those costs can now be shared. Need to know the true variable cost to build R1 before declaring no money is made.
 

Gen(R3)Xer

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Leasing Model 3 until R3X comes out, but now I have an R2 reservation as well.
Selling R1's right now make Rivian $0 and actually they lose about $23k per R1 produced. So, your comments are the opposite. Once they hit cash flow positive and can survive without losses from the R2 expect major changes to pricing on the R1. It will not be acceptable for the R1 to continue to lose money so they either will kill it or increase price to make it profitable. Those are the only 2 options Rivian has. The R1 price is low now due to no alternative product. That has now changed with the R2.
What about applying what they learned from the R2 to the R1? They could have a Standard Model that has a more traditional suspension that’s more affordable and easier to repair, use a structural battery pack with 4695 cells, and offer a more affordable interior. Of course adding the rear drop glass would add expense, but that could be reserved for the higher-end R1 trims, just like the R2. I don’t see any of this happening for a few years though. They have to concentrate on the R2, the R3, and getting the Georgia Plant up and running.
 

Great Gatsby

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A price hike would kill the R1. I foresee them likely cutting cost on the production end while keeping current prices (or slightly higher) using what they learn from the R2 and likely some part sharing. It is what it is. I just hope the R1 sticks around and I think it will. Still plenty they can do with that line.

As for the used market, the R1S has held up better than most EVs. Gas prices definitely jacked prices up in the used market but now that gas prices are dropping, I do foresee some slight correction by a few thousand dollars.
 

Donald Stanfield

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Selling R1's right now make Rivian $0 and actually they lose about $23k per R1 produced. So, your comments are the opposite. Once they hit cash flow positive and can survive without losses from the R2 expect major changes to pricing on the R1. It will not be acceptable for the R1 to continue to lose money so they either will kill it or increase price to make it profitable. Those are the only 2 options Rivian has. The R1 price is low now due to no alternative product. That has now changed with the R2.
You know that the metric of Rivian losing 23K per car sold doesn't actually mean the cars are produced at a loss, right? That loss is Rivian's total operating costs, averaged per vehicle sold. That means all their service center and corporate employee costs are applied to those cars. If Rivian sells more cars, that loss per car would reduce, not increase, which is what's implied by the "Loss on each vehicle" statement.
 

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Thedude

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I actually expect the opposite. Once R2 is underway and selling at a clip to maintain profits the R1 will increase price to become profitable out the door. I can see the quad and tri getting a $20k increase along with 10-15k on the DM.
They will price themselves right out of the market if they try and charge nearly $140k for a R1 tri/quad. It’s simply not built well enough or at a quality point to be worth anything close to that. At the current prices it’s very questionable and only slightly justifiable because there are so few comparable alternatives.
 
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Eric9610

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They will price themselves right out of the market if they try and charge nearly $140k for a R1 grip/quad. It’s simply not built well enough or at a quality point to be worth anything close to that. At the current prices it’s very questionable and only slightly justifiable because there are so few comparable alternatives.
The electric G wagon is $186k and sells like hot cakes here. Its slower, less range and no 3rd row. Lots of people will still buy a R1 QM even at $160k. Rivian is forced with profitability dilemma and must make money on every car they sell. Losing $30k per unit is no longer acceptable to shareholders and the market.
 

Eric9610

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You know that the metric of Rivian losing 23K per car sold doesn't actually mean the cars are produced at a loss, right? That loss is Rivian's total operating costs, averaged per vehicle sold. That means all their service center and corporate employee costs are applied to those cars. If Rivian sells more cars, that loss per car would reduce, not increase, which is what's implied by the "Loss on each vehicle" statement.
Actually the $23k is. If you add all depreciation including factory and R&D it is $37k. It’s well documented that the actual production cost per R1 is Negative.
 

Electron

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They will price themselves right out of the market if they try and charge nearly $140k for a R1 grip/quad. It’s simply not built well enough or at a quality point to be worth anything close to that. At the current prices it’s very questionable and only slightly justifiable because there are so few comparable alternatives.
100%. I love my Gen 2 Tri, but I still cringe at some of the cost-cutting measures. The doors feel cheap/hollow, door handles and window switches feel cheap, there's no dual-pane front glass, and then there's the audio system, which honestly sounds like something you'd expect in a $20k vehicle.

What you said is spot on in that it's only slightly justifiable because there are so few comparable alternatives. If there were more direct competitors in this segment, I think these shortcomings would be scrutinized much more heavily.

It's an odd feeling being in a situation where, by default, beggars can't be choosers.
 

Donald Stanfield

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Actually the $23k is. If you add all depreciation including factory and R&D it is $37k. It’s well documented that the actual production cost per R1 is Negative.
Wrong. The actual profit vs production cost is positive. Not only has this been true for over a year, and the entire point of the Gen 2 vehicles, but it's easily verifiable with Rivian's own published numbers. Their loss has gone down despite selling more vehicles. If it was, as you said, the more vehicles Rivian sold, the bigger their loss would be.
 

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100%. I love my Gen 2 Tri, but I still cringe at some of the cost-cutting measures. The doors feel cheap/hollow, door handles and window switches feel cheap, there's no dual-pane front glass, and then there's the audio system, which honestly sounds like something you'd expect in a $20k vehicle.

What you said is spot on in that it's only slightly justifiable because there are so few comparable alternatives. If there were more direct competitors in this segment, I think these shortcomings would be scrutinized much more heavily.

It's an odd feeling being in a situation where, by default, beggars can't be choosers.

My kids can never close the door, I’d have a fully paid off R1 if I had $1 for every time I have to ask the kids to close the door again. Also agree on audio , the 2026 Model Y Premium blows my mind after driving the R1 for a few days and then getting into that. Road noise at highway speeds with the 22” wheels is really loud. However , as you pointed out , there is nothing else on the market close to comparable. So beggars cant be choosers :)
 

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I think it’s fair to assume that while all the R2 launch frenzy has been going on, Rivian has also been trying to figure out how to adapt as much of the wiring harness, software, sourcing and manufacturing process learned from R2 product development to rethink R1 manufacturing entirely. This will inevitably help bring a little profitability to R1 and perhaps keep pricing in check. I have at least a little faith in RJ and team.
 

rjaudi

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I have been following the market closely this year as my lease runs out on my 2024 quad. I have only seen 6 quads sell this year. The cheapest was 105k with 2k miles. The other 5 sold from 108 to 111. The 2 launch greens currently listed have been sitting for some time. Rivian is offering 5k off a few of the inventory units so I don't see how they are going to get 115 to 120. I am hopeful they will offer some deals to sell the 2026 inventory like the 0 percent financing they had in February.
 

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There is one small problem in this assumption. There has to be buyers at the higher prices for the R1 vehicles. Currently there are newer high end EVs and Rivian will not be able to sell at the prices you state. They will just sit as inventory and will require carrying costs for Rivian's books.

Vast majority of high end EV buyers and those seeking highly capable off-road EVs do not make a large Venn diagram overlap.
Guess that makes me a unicorn. ‘25 MB G580 and ‘26 R1S Tri.

Rivian R1T R1S Market Reality Check: When do Gen 2 Quads drop to double digits? IMG_6459
 
 








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