Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[Thebandit]

If I were Rivian I would release the LiDAR/RAP1 in the performance/launch many, many, many months before in premium and standard. It makes the most sense for sales. Also, another smart option would be to tie LiDAR/RAP1 to performance and discontinue launch. No good reason to reward those that wait for the lower cost options.

They want RAP1 and Lidar in as many vehicles as they can get. It's the key to their FSD future.

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[VSG]

What is rumored to come with RAP1 other than Lidar and new cameras?

Who said anything about new cameras?

 

[sparked]

What is rumored to come with RAP1 other than Lidar and new cameras?

Only the new autonomy compute module 3 and LiDAR are coming later. Everything else including the cameras, dual mode radar and new infotainment computer are available today at launch.

 

[rvnxyz001]

What is rumored to come with RAP1 other than Lidar and new cameras?

I assume hardware internals will be completely different, just because you can't simply swap an Nvidia chip with another. Maybe it will impact the infotainment system in some ways. They don't share exact technical details, unfortunately; it is not an open-source vehicle.

 

[Mos Eisley]

What is rumored to come with RAP1 other than Lidar and new cameras?

RAP1/GEN3 is the new brain - estimated 4X the compute power.

 

[bnolan]

Went on a test drive today and the rep definitely tried to set expectations really low on the immediate usefulness of the Lidar and couldn’t give any timeline info.

As someone who bought one of the first AWD Pro S ID.4s and then got screwed over by VW when they updated HW and basically stopped offering any SW updates to their original supporters, I’m a little worried about jumping on board the current R2 knowing about the imminent HW change.

My window opens in Dec - Feb so hopefully we’ll have more concrete info by then.

When I made my reservation, I chose the Premium as I don’t really need towing, not sure what difference the adaptive suspension makes as a daily driver and don’t care about a special key fob. Autonomy+ was only real year ion mark.

I’d prefer to get All Season 20” wheels which would likely be cheaper to replace (and have more options than the all season 21”).

The autonomy+ is interesting but worst case , I could always purchase the lifetime after the fact if I really want it. The hands free highway was pretty nice during demo. Though I still didn’t feel comfortable removing hands from wheel. It’s not like I could legally use my phone.

 

[Mos Eisley]

I assume hardware internals will be completely different, just because you can't simply swap an Nvidia chip with another. Maybe it will impact the infotainment system in some ways. They don't share exact technical details, unfortunately; it is not an open-source vehicle.

Nope, Rivian has said it is shipping R2's with all the necessary hardware. In the video you can see the current compute box (Nvidia) alongside the upcoming RAP 1 box. Basically looks like the innards of a PC with minor variances between the two.

 

[FlyingPilot2012]

Missing the free offer does not affect my decision. The potential resale hit on the early hardware matters much more than $2,500...

I've got a feeling LIDAR/RAP1 will have minimal impact on resale.

Everyone on this forum is hyper aware of the LIDAR/RAP1 situation but probably 90% of prospective buyers could care less. Average car buyers are not asking questions like "how many TOPS does it have? What's the memory bandwidth compared to competitors?"

If you sell within 1-3 years, the functionality will likely be the same. Try convincing the average buyer to spend more on the car with the weird flat spot on the windshield when it has no additional features/functions.

However, if you sell after 3-6 years, there may added value with newer features unique to LIDAR/RAP1 cars. But I'd bet depreciation would probably put them a lot closer in value than most would think (imagine $25,000 for a 5 year old non-Lidar, and like $28,000 for a 5 year old LIDAR equipped).

 

[rvnxyz001]

Try convincing the average buyer to spend more on the car with the weird flat spot on the windshield when it has no additional features/functions.

But they can also ask, "What is this weird, non-functional placeholder on the windshield?"

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

This makes sense. BUT In alternative universe, where LIDAR/RAP1 were not right around the corner, I could still see Rivian offering the exact same LE perks.

Considering this is such a make or break car for Rivian, they are trying to pull in as many people as possible, the vast majority of which have never heard of or owned a Rivian. The R2 is a great product but I think it will still be hard to get people to switch from Tesla or their legacy auto ICE vehicle.

The free perks from LE have wide appeal and can help get more R2s on the road now. This in turn, help the brand's recognition/acceptance, leading to more sales.

It's all about the long game.

Agreed, with one caveat. Rivian doesn’t have the cash flow to play the long game, VW partnership or not. R2 is a true do‑or‑die moment. And “die” doesn’t mean disappearing; it means diluting the stock until there’s nothing left to squeeze, and then getting acquired once that cow is fully milked.

 

[Jeremy3292]

What is rumored to come with RAP1 other than Lidar and new cameras?

New cameras are already in R2. Only LIDAR and RAP1 is missing. That's it.

 

[gd_r1t]

I've gone back and forth on waiting for Gen 3 vs. buying a Launch Package

I personally landed on Launch Package for my needs and personal speculations on the future

For my needs, I don't really care about my car being able to drive itself point-to-point everywhere all the time. I love driving. I definitely value anything to make road trips easier though. And the Gen 2 hardware will indeed give an already really good experience.

The only thing that could make it much better for me is true eyes off unsupervised driving, especially for long periods of time on road trips. To allow me to read, do work, text, etc. I.e minimum Level 3 autonomy.

My issue: I just can't see Level 3 autonomy coming anytime in the next 12-24 months even on Gen 3. Maybe I'll look back on this post soon and laugh at myself. But there are so many hurdles...

1. Obviously, the technology hurdle. Rivian needs to solve the software problem with a legitimately reliable and safe unsupervised experience for consumer vehicles. Nobody has done that unsupervised in the US — not even Tesla. They have a small handful of no-driver cars in Texas.

It's really freaking hard. This^ hurdle alone would be incredible if Rivian actually could deliver anything in the next 1-2 years. Though to Rivian's credit, they have been remarkably good at delivering on their promises relatively on-time for the most part, up to this point.

2. Next, the regulatory hurdles. Rivian will need to apply and get approved to enable Level 3 unsupervised in geographies and situations. This requires approval at a state by state level. Mercedes only does it in a limited number of states, only slow driving on highways. I don't know what the odds are Rivian will get approved anytime soon in Oregon where I live, for meaningful use cases beyond slow driving on highways.

3. Also, insurance hurdles. For Rivian to offer unsupervised Level 3 driving, they take on the liability themselves. Massive insurance costs to do that. For an unprofitable startup, this aint easy.

4. Then there's the brand hurdles. I hate to say it, but at some point as Rivian scales, there will almost certainly be an accident involving a serious personal injury — even on the supervised autonomy suite, not to mention any unsupervised Level 3 systems. When this happens, there can be some high-profile PR and brand risks to Rivian that could cause it to slow roll the expansion of any unsupervised autonomy features.

When I consider all of those^ hurdles to get to an unsupervised Level 3 autonomy experience that would be actually meaningfully valuable, I'm skeptical. I'm guessing there will be more supplementary add-on features before things like taking eyes completely off the road for extended periods of time.

Again I could be totally wrong.

But in the meantime, I'll take $2,500 savings on regular Autonomy+ suite, free Tow Package and earlier delivery with the Launch Package.

 

[kshtxag]

From Rivian website story July 9 about EV road trips:
“With other assistive features, such as point-to-point navigation, coming later this year, and eventually eyes-off driving, Autonomy+ will help you arrive fresh and ready for adventure.”

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I selected that I was not interested in LE, and Rivian put my order window at Dec-Feb. Am I wrong to assume the Premium will be available then? With LiDAR?

They never said Premium would be with LiDAR. So you probably won't have Premium AND LiDAR. I know RJ said they'll start building LiDAR cars late 2026, but he didn't say it in context of customer deliveries. He could be referring to production with internal use/testing in mind. AND point-to-point was never tied to LiDAR, was it? AFAIK, it's tied to eyes-off (which not only require LiDAR but also legislation in some states).

 

[emroch]

They never said Premium would be with LiDAR. So you probably won't have Premium AND LiDAR. I know RJ said they'll start building LiDAR cars late 2026, but he didn't say it in context of customer deliveries. He could be referring to production with internal use/testing in mind. AND point-to-point was never tied to LiDAR, was it? AFAIK, it's tied to eyes-off (which not only require LiDAR but also legislation in some states).

Point to point is not tied to eyes off or LiDAR/RAP1. It is coming to all Gen2 vehicles (R1 and R2) later this year.

I think you're right about the customer deliveries vs development builds for the "late 2026" claims about LiDAR. Other Rivian interviews have mentioned that model year 2028 will have LiDAR, so I suspect we'll see some test vehicles this year but it won't be in customer vehicles until mid-late 2027 (ie MY28).

As for which trims get LiDAR, I have no reason to believe it wouldn't be all of them (except maybe the $45k base model). They want LiDAR out there not because it will provide the driver with an immediate benefit (a la heated seats or other trim-specific upgrades), but because it will provide huge amounts of training data for their Large Driving Model. I hedged a bit with the Standard because they may use it as a marketing strategy to push people to the Standard AWD to capture a bit more margin, but I think they want it on as many vehicles as possible as quickly as possible.

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