Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[Mos Eisley]

While Travis is retreading common ground, I do think this is a better synthesis of all the what-if's around Gen 3, RAP1, LiDAR, R2 LE and should you wait or not.

I suspect he is correct about Gen3 hardware being well and fully clear of the LE timeline; otherwise, as I have said before, I cannot see a pint in time, say, Nov. 15th of this year, when you can suddenly add/option/or just have it show up with, Gen 3.

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[sparked]

What's interesting is that Rivian hasn't outright said RAP1/LiDAR wouldn't overlap with Launch Edition sales. It would be super easy just to say that combo will never be available to keep customer decision making super simple. They're obviously getting flooded with this question directly and all over social media.

 

[Jeremy3292]

He's not wrong. It's a good video that everyone should watch.

It's so obvious to me from a business perspective that Rivian is including Autonomy+ for free on LE so people will buy it and not wait for RAP1/LIDAR. LE ends when RAP1/LIDAR begins IMO. Ironically, I have a feeling some of those waiting for RAP1/LIDAR will regret that decision later on. You will have to pay $2,500 for Autonomy+ and maybe more for the car if Rivian raises prices. Anyone seen the prices of RAM these days? Even Apple isn't immune from price increases, so no doubt Rivian will increase prices too. "When" is the ultimate question.

To each his own and some want to hedge against future autonomy changes, but it seems to me Rivian is a LONGGGGG way away from that; they have to catch where Tesla is today first. They said the current chipset has plenty of headroom for point to point/hands off autonomy like Tesla has now. Good enough for me.

YMMV

 

[sparked]

LE ends when RAP1/LIDAR begins IMO. Ironically, I have a feeling some of those waiting for RAP1/LIDAR will regret that decision later on. You will have to pay $2,500 for Autonomy+ and maybe more for the car if Rivian raises prices. Anyone seen the prices of RAM these days? Even Apple isn't immune from price increases, so no doubt Rivian will increase prices too. "When" is the ultimate question.

People also told us the R2 backlog was years out and new reservations wouldn't get their cars till 2028 or later. If the order backlog is thinner than they want, Rivian could conceivably keep launch edition going to get these higher dollar sales. Rivian is hungry for R2 sales. Just look at the way they are prioritizing expiring leases ahead of people who waited 2 years in line.

If prices change, consumers change behavior too. I bailed out on buying a Model Y when prices started increasing rapidly a few years ago. A lot of people are waiting on Premium trim just because of the $4k difference regardless of any freebies with the Launch Edition.

 

[Jeremy3292]

People also told us the R2 backlog was years out and new reservations wouldn't get their cars till 2028 or later. If the order backlog is thinner than they want, Rivian could conceivably keep launch edition going to get these higher dollar sales. Rivian is hungry for R2 sales. Just look at the way they are prioritizing expiring leases ahead of people who waited 2 years in line.

If prices change, consumers change behavior too. I bailed out on buying a Model Y when prices started increasing rapidly a few years ago. A lot of people are waiting on Premium trim just because of the $4k difference regardless of any freebies with the Launch Edition.

They just increased guidance for 2026 deliveries last week. There's no issue with sales currently. Lots of people are waiting for the lower priced trims though, I agree.

 

[DuoRivian]

People also told us the R2 backlog was years out and new reservations wouldn't get their cars till 2028 or later. If the order backlog is thinner than they want, Rivian could conceivably keep launch edition going to get these higher dollar sales. Rivian is hungry for R2 sales. Just look at the way they are prioritizing expiring leases ahead of people who waited 2 years in line.

If prices change, consumers change behavior too. I bailed out on buying a Model Y when prices started increasing rapidly a few years ago. A lot of people are waiting on Premium trim just because of the $4k difference regardless of any freebies with the Launch Edition.

The Premium is $4k cheaper but doesn’t have the semi active suspension or the additional power, in addition to the LE package of tow package and free Autonomy plus. LE could be cheaper than a premium model with those extras added.

 

[skyguyscott]

Some potential buyers are paralyzed by FOMO and over analysis leading to confusion rather than clarification.

But consider the alternative universe where technological development stagnates or moves much more slowly, and ask yourself if that is a preferable universe. Do you really want to live in a world where technology is frozen and never advances?

So, yeah, of course, the vehicle, phone, computer, etc. you purchase this year will soon be eclipsed by a more technically advanced and more capable product a year or two later. Is this surprising to you? Is this reason to wait, and if so, for how long? If you can wait, I would submit that what you have is a want rather than a need. If you really need a vehicle, you are going to get one regardless.

Consider also the fact that often newer products are in some ways inferior to older products due to the predilection of companies always wanting to cut costs -- the use of cheaper materials, making products that are less robust, have less longevity, etc. (There are some "durable goods" that are not nearly as durable as they used to be, e.g. refrigerators, water heaters, air conditioners, houses. etc.)

Rivian, being a relatively new company, is emerging from the "figuring it out" phase of production where many of the first gen bugs have been worked out, and is now in the "establishing reputation" phase where they must put out a quality product in order to survive. This is one of the many reasons I chose to go with a Rivian Gen 2 R1T, rather than a legacy brand, and have not yet been disappointed.

 

[netjack]

Or ask yourself this question - will you pay $50/month for autonomy plus w/ the new chip? I know I won't.

 

[FlyingPilot2012]

It's so obvious to me from a business perspective that Rivian is including Autonomy+ for free on LE so people will buy it and not wait for RAP1/LIDAR.

This makes sense. BUT In alternative universe, where LIDAR/RAP1 were not right around the corner, I could still see Rivian offering the exact same LE perks.

Considering this is such a make or break car for Rivian, they are trying to pull in as many people as possible, the vast majority of which have never heard of or owned a Rivian. The R2 is a great product but I think it will still be hard to get people to switch from Tesla or their legacy auto ICE vehicle.

The free perks from LE have wide appeal and can help get more R2s on the road now. This in turn, help the brand's recognition/acceptance, leading to more sales.

It's all about the long game.

 

[Jeremy3292]

This makes sense. BUT In alternative universe, where LIDAR/RAP1 were not right around the corner, I could still see Rivian offering the exact same LE perks.

Considering this is such a make or break car for Rivian, they are trying to pull in as many people as possible, the vast majority of which have never heard of or owned a Rivian. The R2 is a great product but I think it will still be hard to get people to switch from Tesla or their legacy auto ICE vehicle.

The free perks from LE have wide appeal and can help get more R2s on the road now. This in turn, help the brand's recognition/acceptance, leading to more sales.

It's all about the long game.

I think they’ll continue the LE until there is no more demand for it, then they’ll introduce RAP1/LIDAR. By doing it that way, you’re keeping your sales channels full with demand and matching it to supply while maximizing revenue.

 

[dcdttu]

I selected that I was not interested in LE, and Rivian put my order window at Dec-Feb. Am I wrong to assume the Premium will be available then? With LiDAR?

 

[sparked]

I selected that I was not interested in LE, and Rivian put my order window at Dec-Feb. Am I wrong to assume the Premium will be available then? With LiDAR?

We don't know anything about ACM3/LiDAR availability beyond approximate time frame towards the end of 2026 or beginning of 2027. None of the execs have spilled any details like that.

 

[R24U]

If I were Rivian I would release the LiDAR/RAP1 in the performance/launch many, many, many months before in premium and standard. It makes the most sense for sales. Also, another smart option would be to tie LiDAR/RAP1 to performance and discontinue launch. No good reason to reward those that wait for the lower cost options.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Or ask yourself this question - will you pay $50/month for autonomy plus w/ the new chip? I know I won't.

The free "$2,500 Autonomy+" still would not push me toward the Launch Edition. Even after the Launch Edition is gone and that offer disappears, I would rather wait for the newer hardware.

Long term, Autonomy+ on the launch hardware may not be worth much once the updated R2 arrives. Rivian’s own officials previously said cameras are not enough in some situations, so I am not comfortable relying on this system anyway.

Missing the free offer does not affect my decision. The potential resale hit on the early hardware matters much more than $2,500...

 

[netjack]

The free "$2,500 Autonomy+" still would not push me toward the Launch Edition. Even after the Launch Edition is gone and that offer disappears, I would rather wait for the newer hardware.

Long term, Autonomy+ on the launch hardware may not be worth much once the updated R2 arrives. Rivian’s own officials previously said cameras are not enough in some situations, so I am not comfortable relying on this system anyway.

Missing the free offer does not affect my decision. The potential resale hit on the early hardware matters much more than $2,500...

What is rumored to come with RAP1 other than Lidar and new cameras?

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