Zoidz
Well-Known Member
- Thread starter
- #1
This is a very ambitious project, and there's simply no way it will be producing chips in volume in 2027. In the 80s I worked in an analog fab facility for a few years, and have 30+ years experience in factory build out and automation. This is another Musk pipe dream, no matter howe much money you throw at it. Nine women can't make a baby in a month.
Full Article
Terafab is a joint venture between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI — the AI company that SpaceX recently acquired in an all-stock deal.
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Terafab is designed for an initial output of 100,000 wafer starts per month, with ambitions to scale to 1 million wafer starts per month at full capacity. For context, that full-scale target would represent roughly 70% of TSMC’s entire current global output — from a single facility operated by companies that have never fabricated a chip.
...
Musk said the facility would produce between 100 and 200 billion custom AI and memory chips per year, powering Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” software, the Cybercab robotaxi program, and the Optimus humanoid robot line. He also said millions of Optimus robots would help build and operate the facility.
...
He claimed all the current fabrication facilities on Earth produce only about 2% of what he would need across all of his projects.
...
Small-batch production of the AI5 is expected in 2026 with volume production projected for 2027.
...
Musk said 80% of Terafab’s compute output would be directed toward space-based orbital AI satellites, with only 20% for ground-based applications. He argued that solar irradiance in space is roughly 5x greater than at Earth’s surface, and that heat rejection in vacuum makes thermal scaling viable. His conclusion: orbital AI compute could become cheaper than terrestrial alternatives within 2-3 years.
...
Tesla’s CFO acknowledged that the full Terafab cost — estimated at $20-25 billion — is not yet incorporated into Tesla’s record capital expenditure plan for 2026, which already exceeds $20 billion.
Full Article
Terafab is a joint venture between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI — the AI company that SpaceX recently acquired in an all-stock deal.
...
Terafab is designed for an initial output of 100,000 wafer starts per month, with ambitions to scale to 1 million wafer starts per month at full capacity. For context, that full-scale target would represent roughly 70% of TSMC’s entire current global output — from a single facility operated by companies that have never fabricated a chip.
...
Musk said the facility would produce between 100 and 200 billion custom AI and memory chips per year, powering Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” software, the Cybercab robotaxi program, and the Optimus humanoid robot line. He also said millions of Optimus robots would help build and operate the facility.
...
He claimed all the current fabrication facilities on Earth produce only about 2% of what he would need across all of his projects.
...
Small-batch production of the AI5 is expected in 2026 with volume production projected for 2027.
...
Musk said 80% of Terafab’s compute output would be directed toward space-based orbital AI satellites, with only 20% for ground-based applications. He argued that solar irradiance in space is roughly 5x greater than at Earth’s surface, and that heat rejection in vacuum makes thermal scaling viable. His conclusion: orbital AI compute could become cheaper than terrestrial alternatives within 2-3 years.
...
Tesla’s CFO acknowledged that the full Terafab cost — estimated at $20-25 billion — is not yet incorporated into Tesla’s record capital expenditure plan for 2026, which already exceeds $20 billion.
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