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Another datapoint: New R1S (Glacier White/22'' Sport Bright wheels) priced ~10% below MSRP on Cargurus... https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-Rivian-R1S-New-York-d2839_L22938#listing=375037385/NONE/NATIONWIDE_SHIPPING Not sure what buyer fees are applicable here though.

It actually is still over 500 (in Bay Area). But it hasn't gone up over the last few months so that's good :)

Here is some food for thought. The 4 new R1S vehicles that have sold on CarsandBids so far this month have gone at a 9-10% discount to MSRP inclusive of the 4.5% buyers fee. In December 2023 the average discount to MSRP was -6%. It's too much of a sample size to really mean much, but makes...

But why would the residual on the SUV be lower if the used SUV prices have so far held up better than the used truck prices (my presumption based on relatively limited R1S supply)?

Wow! Sooner than I expected. And it looks like they have opened up the R1S shop to everybody now, not just reservation holders. Kind of makes me worry a bit more about the demand picture. I thought they were fully booked on the R1S until late this year.

You raise a good point. I took a quick look at the R1T shop which has far more inventory than the R1S shop and I am not seeing any perfectly identical configurations. Maybe there is a way to verify that for sure but I think you are on to something.

They don't show VINs in the shop unfortunately. I haven't seen two perfectly identical vehicles, but I would chalk that up to the limited number of inventory more than anything else.

Anyone else think concerns about weakened demand may be overblown? In my area (NYC) the number of R1S vehicles in the shop have stayed roughly the same (130-150) over the last month despite the fact that Rivian continues to ramp production... Perhaps other people are seeing something different?

Did you pick it out from the shop?

How much would a purchased (not leased) Rivian qualify for given where they source their materials?

Another data point from NYC - July 2023 reservation, received invitation to configure a week ago. Also have shop access where there are 150+ R1S's (almost all quad motor). At some point this year the CEO indicated that new orders might have to wait until well into 2024 or even early 2025, but...

Seems like these pre-order flippers might need to have secured the 7.5k tax credit in order to eke out a profit at this point...

Is this a credible source? Would be awesome but it doesn't pass the smell test for me. Model 3 sells hundreds of thousands of units every year in the US....

See below - Maybe it is because I am a mid-2023 R1S reservation holder?

Just saw this on the Rivian website today. I thought RJ suggested they had backlog extending deep into 2024 or possibly even 2025....what do all of you think? If you order an R1S today, could you actually get one by April 2024?

Could you elaborate? The surprise on my end is that hundreds disappeared seemingly overnight. Ordinarily I would expect the number to decline over time at a more measured pace.

Anyone know why the R1T max packs appear to have completely disappeared from the shop?

I'm amazed at how low the lease payments seem to be. I saw an option to lease a $100k R1T truck for a $1k monthly payment. If you assume a $10k down payment and $90k borrowed at 6.5%, that's $500 in interest payments per month. That leaves $500 a month in implied depreciation payments ($6k a...

Weird. I saw over 200+ max packs this morning and now there is only 1. Also it looks like they have estimated leasing rates up too as well now.

They are definitely selling more R1S than R1T. RJ has talked about their order mix being 70% R1S and this has been reflected in their production/delivery figures the last two quarters.