Article: Rivian's path to survival is now remarkably clear -- agree / disagree?

[Electron]

Trying to rush out new car designs in too short a time could be catastrophic. Refine (and reduce manufacturing costs) on the current cars, while building the capability to produce the next cars, seems like the prudent move. Rivian had planned to produce the R2/R3 vehicles in Georgia; they have only recently switched initial production to Normal, so there is much to do - trying to do it too quickly would be a mistake.

That's true. It's a fine balance and all about the timing. In Rivian's case they had no choice but to address the cash burning model that was incinerating their cash stockpile. I also have a feeling that internally they set a target for at the very earliest the tail end of 2025 for the R2, which we now know is the first part of 2026.

Even if they were to have released the R2 in 2024, between the current state of the economy, high interest rates and all of the above, it would have been the wrong timing. We can see evidence of this with even Tesla struggling.

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[zymolysis]

I think it is now clear that Rivian's path to survival is to be acquired. There is a path to break even, but not really a path to profitability and volume manufacturing without $5-$7 billion in new capital. Perhaps Nissan, so that Nissan can compete with TRD?

Clear to whom? I can't claim to be an expert on automobile manufacturing or marketing, but it isn't clear to me... at least not any clearer than it was when I first heard the name, "Rivian." Starting a new car company is daunting. I have no crystal ball (even my windows are hazy).

 

[Shavaloo]

There seems to be no mention of economies of scale in slowly lowering manufacturing costs for Rivian if they are successful in getting their numbers up. Most manufacturing endeavors start out with negative gross margins and scale their way into positive territory. Nothing new there. The challenge for Rivian is that volume markets are more price sensitive than luxury markets, and it’s even harder to achieve positive margins in volume markets with market pricing pressure from manufacturers already operating at scale. That’s the chasm that must be bridged by any automaker looking to move into volume sales. You either stay small and focus on gross margins and high prices in the non-price sensitive luxury market where brand is king, or you go for volume. Problem with the volume markets again is that you have to get really big to compete against the efficiencies achieved by the super volume builders.

 

[Greg Chick]

In my opinion the Rivian is a keeper, who keeps the name and control of the name is not the given, but the Rivian is. The Deloren was a one hit wonder, the Rivian is much bigger and better than the Deloren. I fear not for my stock value, the future looks good.
The R1T is a masterpiece, I do not look at the daily ups n downs of the stock price or the days issues posted on the blog sites for comfort. I am not a day trader, nor do I buy and drive trendy cars, I am a buy n hold guy. I research then buy and drive wisely.
"To infinity and beyond", as Space Ranger said!

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