Better than expected Q1 deliveries?

[LetsgoRIVN]

TSLA up 12%, all other EVs green, market turned green but RIVN -2%. Unbelievable!!

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[OverEasyGoing]

TSLA up 12%, all other EVs green, market turned green but RIVN -2%. Unbelievable!!

It's laughable at this point. I don't understand it.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

It's laughable at this point. I don't understand it.

Exactly! Not sure if this is market manipulation (shorts) or holders getting out of their position. I bet if it was Rivian that reported and went up 12%, then all other EVs would have been up the same if not more (including Tesla ?)

 

[Rivtony]

And Tesla has missed they EPS and revenue guidance for 3 quarter in a row.?

 

[Dark-Fx]

Rivian just needs to announce a robotaxi for earlier than the H H date.

 

[Stickboy46]

Rivian just needs to announce a robotaxi for earlier than the H H date.

Yea, just announce stuff .. no need to ever actually deliver on it .. just keep announcing new stuff.

 

[fyton2v]

I was pretty sure I didn't understand the stock market and now I'm certain I don't understand.

 

[TexasBob]

And Tesla has missed they EPS and revenue guidance for 3 quarter in a row.?

It is down 40% after those three misses (even after today's little bump).

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

Do you guys expect any catalyst that would change market sentiment in the upcoming ER?

 

[BigSkies]

I was pretty sure I didn't understand the stock market and now I'm certain I don't understand.

Protip from someone who has worked in finance for nearly 20 years: Anyone that claims to understand the stock market is either lying or trying to sell you a newsletter.

I once did financial reporting for a large public company. Part of my job was telling executives what they should provide for guidance and how we were tracking against guidance.

Even I had no idea which way the stock would move most of the time. Sometimes a news report or unexpected information would have a predictable impact. But it was mostly random noise.

 

[BigSkies]

I'm going to try my hand at some production math here.

Rivian guided to 57,000 vehicles produced for 2024. I'll assume 47k are R1's and 10k are EDV's.

Q1: 13.6k produced
Q2: Factory shutdown, and probably a slow ramp back up. Let's say 5k.
Q3 + Q4: This implies ~19k/quarter for Q3 and Q4, of which ~16.5k would be R1's.

What this tells us:
-Rivian will be going into 2025 with a run-rate of ~76k vehicles per year on two shifts.
-This implies they are physically capable of making ~100k vehicles per year with three shifts.
-They have demand for maybe ~40k R1's per year at the current price point. They seemed to be stacking up inventory even at this level . If they think they're going to be producing ~66k R1's/yr, this implies a much lower priced R1 option in my mind.
-They think they can still get to a positive gross margin in Q4 with this in mind (unless they guide otherwise on the May earnings call).

I think Rivian will be in a pretty good short-term spot if they can reaffirm production guidance and positive gross margins for Q4. I think the stock is toast if they lower expectations on either of these.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

I'm going to try my hand at some production math here.

Rivian guided to 57,000 vehicles produced for 2024. I'll assume 47k are R1's and 10k are EDV's.

Q1: 13.6k produced
Q2: Factory shutdown, and probably a slow ramp back up. Let's say 5k.
Q3 + Q4: This implies ~19k/quarter for Q3 and Q4, of which ~16.5k would be R1's.

What this tells us:
-Rivian will be going into 2025 with a run-rate of ~76k vehicles per year on two shifts.
-This implies they are physically capable of making ~100k vehicles per year with three shifts.
-They have demand for maybe ~40k R1's per year at the current price point. They seemed to be stacking up inventory even at this level . If they think they're going to be producing ~66k R1's/yr, this implies a much lower priced R1 option in my mind.
-They think they can still get to a positive gross margin in Q4 with this in mind (unless they guide otherwise on the May earnings call).

I think Rivian will be in a pretty good short-term spot if they can reaffirm production guidance and positive gross margins for Q4. I think the stock is toast if they lower expectations on either of these.

Even reaffirming guidance and positive margin won’t move the needle, they need some kind of surprise to shift the sentiment from negative to positive. Now, any bad announcement like delaying positive margin would literally mean GAME OVER for shareholders and probably the company !

 

[BigSkies]

Even reaffirming guidance and positive margin won’t move the needle, they need some kind of surprise to shift the sentiment from negative to positive. Now, any bad announcement like delaying positive margin would literally mean GAME OVER for shareholders and probably the company !

I absolutely agree on the second point.

I think re-affirming guidance would give a nice short-term boost to the stock, but not materially change Rivian's prospects. The whole EV world has been hit by enough bad news over the last few months that I suspect Mr Market is already pricing in some level of really really really bad news.

Although if I could accurately predict these things, I'd be much richer than I am today.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

I absolutely agree on the second point.

I think re-affirming guidance would give a nice short-term boost to the stock, but not materially change Rivian's prospects. The whole EV world has been hit by enough bad news over the last few months that I suspect Mr Market is already pricing in some level of really really really bad news.

Although if I could accurately predict these things, I'd be much richer than I am today.

One announcement that would give the stock a > 100% up is R3 production soon and also a price estimate of 30K or lower!

 

[Freddie]

When is the factory coming online again?

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