Finance vs. Lease the R2 -- the math

[Gen(R3)Xer]

But if the car is actually valued higher when it's time for the lease to expire you just buy it out for the residual then sell it for higher. Or trade it in and get the higher value toward your next vehicle (which I've done.)

If it has a buyout, which it should. That’s one of the beauties of a lease. If the residual value is greater than the market value in 3 years you can just walk away.

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[Gen(R3)Xer]

Yes, I agree. The lease payment seems quite high for a $60K vehicle. My assumption is that they're intentionally structuring the lease program to encourage more customers to purchase or finance instead. Doing so would reduce the number of lease returns and help avoid building up a large inventory of used R2s being sold at significantly lower prices, which could ultimately impact new vehicle sales.

For comparison, I currently lease a Genesis GV70 Prestige EV, which had an MSRP of around $75,000, and my payment is $650 per month.

What concerns me now is the growing list of add-ons. I configured my vehicle with the Coastal White interior, which is already a $1,000 option. Now we're hearing about ceramic window and sunroof tinting, which could add another $1,500. Both of these options will increase the lease payment even further.

I live in Florida, so high-quality heat-rejection tint is practically a necessity. My biggest issue is that these additional costs weren't communicated earlier in the process. I think Rivian should have been more transparent from the beginning so customers could make more informed decisions about pricing and affordability.

I’ve never heard about tinting being an additional option from an automaker. Unless you’re talking about the photochromic glass roof, which the R2 doesn’t have.

Usually tinting is done by a third-party. Rivian has a partnership with XPEL for wraps and ceramic costing. Is that what you mean?

 

[Friar619]

My situation is I currently have 1 year left on my lease on a touring trim 2024 Honda Prologue EV. My current monthly payment is $520 a month. I put zero money down on that lease and got the $7500 federal tax credit back then. I never leased a car before and made the mistake of only getting 10K yearly mileage allowance. Currently I'm already 5500k miles over and the penalty is 20 cents per mile. The one thing that kind of helped me was that I got a nice cash settlement from a lemon law case I filed and won against Honda America. The prologue I've had the main EV battery die and was replaced. I had a CV axel joint problem worked on 9 times and now this year alone It's had 2 NHTSA recall work done. The residual buyout price on the Prologue is 28k and some change. I've checked and the car value on carvana and KBB is only around 20K right now. So yeah there is no way I would buyout and keep the Prologue.

So yeah I am ok with waiting until late this year or possibly spring or summer 2027 when the R2's should have Lidar and the better tech chips in them. My R2 reservation was put in on January 24 2025.

I also have a reservation for a slate truck and I'm waiting until the 24 to find out what price they will start at.

 

[ribuck97]

Could you please do the math for the Premium and Standard trims with a depreciation of about 60% over 3 years? I think that’s what Rivian has it set at. Thanks.

Here is a rundown showing the current Performance leasing… then maintaining the same residual, cap cost, but reducing the rent charge to around where the R1 line sits (4.5-6.5% or so). Can vary the residual but the APR is reverse calculated by putting in the total cap cost and the monthly. I’m using $4000 because that is what the lease terms in the Rivian calculator use. Of that $4000, $500 is your deposit which is mandatory And $3500 is a downpayment. Obviously add roughly $100/mo to the cost if you change to $0down+$500 deposit.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Reached out to PenFed without account or active military 5.49 is the best they will offer. If I open and maintain a high balance they said no problem.

I don't know why they advertise that rate if they have no intention of giving better. I reached out a while ago to see what my best rate would be and they also gave me that number. I was wondering at the time how perfect do you need to be to get the advertised rate. Good to know the rate doesn't actually exist.

Anyone know if this is the case with NavyFed and USAA?

 

[Rizzian]

Still don't understand OP, how do I finance a car for 3 years without paying it off?
Are we looking at monthly payments based on a 72 or 84 month auto loan and then just looking at value after 36 months? How can you assume there's any equity at 36 months after making minimum payments spread out over 7 years?

We'd need to ignore everything about EV depreciation, assume that there is a robust market for purchasing used R2's at a premium price. Remember, it's 2029 now and you're trying to sell a used, 3 year old R2 with 30k on the odometer, wear and tear, outdated and poorly supported Gen2 hardware, no Lidar and one year left on the warranty- yet still hoping to get over $46, 000 for it to keep all that "equity" you've built up.
Also, in 2029 you're competing with brand new, Gen3 hardware standard trim R2's that Rivian will be selling for 45k.

 

[fratpack]

I’ve never heard about tinting being an additional option from an automaker. Unless you’re talking about the photochromic glass roof, which the R2 doesn’t have.

Usually tinting is done by a third-party. Rivian has a partnership with XPEL for wraps and ceramic costing. Is that what you mean?

Yes...

 

[Coskigirl]

If it has a buyout, which it should. That’s one of the beauties of a lease. If the residual value is greater than the market value in 3 years you can just walk away.

It would be a big change to not allow a buyout in their leases. Rivian Support - Support Center - Rivian

I agree on the walkaway part but I think that is part of the reason the terms aren't good right now because even they don't truly know what the resale value will be. They are probably fairly confident in their reliability based on reliability testing (I work for a company in that space) but market factors are so unpredictable that they are taking on the risk of too many people walking away and being stuck with the vehicles. Of course the other part is the demand is so high that they don't have to offer incentives.

 

[ribuck97]

Still don't understand OP, how do I finance a car for 3 years without paying it off?
Are we looking at monthly payments based on a 72 or 84 month auto loan and then just looking at value after 36 months? How can you assume there's any equity at 36 months after making minimum payments spread out over 7 years?

We'd need to ignore everything about EV depreciation, assume that there is a robust market for purchasing used R2's at a premium price. Remember, it's 2029 now and you're trying to sell a used, 3 year old R2 with 30k on the odometer, wear and tear, outdated and poorly supported Gen2 hardware, no Lidar and one year left on the warranty- yet still hoping to get over $46, 000 for it to keep all that "equity" you've built up.
Also, in 2029 you're competing with brand new, Gen3 hardware standard trim R2's that Rivian will be selling for 45k.

The comparison is taking a 60mo loan at the offered 5.79% and looking at the loan balance after 3 years. It then takes the delta between the residual value of the lease and that loan balance to estimate whether or not you might be positive or negative. The net cost is the total paid in the financing minus this estimated equity.

The tool is only a guide. It allows you to alter Lease and loan terms so you can change the residual value and financing APR terms. AI tells me that the average actual 3yr depreciation based on used car markets over the last 25 years has been 40%..

The developer is using the lease residual mainly to determine the lease APR. There should be a financing option to “use 25 year depreciation historicals” or enter your own on the financing side. The general. application of R1 Lease residuals of 46-59% sort of work better. In the R2 case where the lease residual is, in my opinion, high… the tool skews towards financing.

$0.02

 

[R1SEnthusiast]

Even Leasehackr is suggesting we should buy the R2 outright.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Here is a rundown showing the current Performance leasing… then maintaining the same residual, cap cost, but reducing the rent charge to around where the R1 line sits (4.5-6.5% or so). Can vary the residual but the APR is reverse calculated by putting in the total cap cost and the monthly. I’m using $4000 because that is what the lease terms in the Rivian calculator use. Of that $4000, $500 is your deposit which is mandatory And $3500 is a downpayment. Obviously add roughly $100/mo to the cost if you change to $0down+$500 deposit.

Thank you so much. I was hoping for something between $500-$600 a month to lease with a buyout. The Standard to Premium models are going to suit me better, as I expected.

I won’t take delivery until Spring of 2027 at the earliest due to my current lease and place in line, so all of the trims should have RAP1 + LiDar at that point and I might want to buy depending on the terms. I appreciate the info. Patience is a virtue (says the guy that wants an R3).

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

It would be a big change to not allow a buyout in their leases. Rivian Support - Support Center - Rivian

I agree on the walkaway part but I think that is part of the reason the terms aren't good right now because even they don't truly know what the resale value will be. They are probably fairly confident in their reliability based on reliability testing (I work for a company in that space) but market factors are so unpredictable that they are taking on the risk of too many people walking away and being stuck with the vehicles. Of course the other part is the demand is so high that they don't have to offer incentives.

Yeah, they’re definitely incentivizing buying over leasing at this point. Demand is high, which is great for the company. I’m going to wait until next Spring when the majority of trims are released and some of the bugs have been worked out. Leasing a Standard or even a Premium model should be much more reasonable ($500-$600 a month?)

 

[TheWebMedic]

Looks like they are price matching.

 

[R2D2TOO]

Leasing the R2 is less and less attractive, particulalry in Texas. If I am reading this right, in Texas you will pay sales tax on the full value of the car - up front - if you lease. Then if you buy it at the end of the lease, you will pay sales tax yet again on whatever the residual amount is. Double tax for a least a portion of the cost. Texas auto sales tax is 6.25%.

I'm leaning toward just purchasing it outright.

 

[ribuck97]

Even Leasehackr is suggesting we should buy the R2 outright.

The ironic part... is using their own leasehackr calculator, the APR is 1.2% higher at 10.08% because the terms are $3500 down + $500 deposit paying acq and other fees up front. Not sure how they came to $939/mo for the $57990 either.

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