Finance vs. Lease the R2 -- the math

[Gen(R3)Xer]

I have a bold prediction... R2 will not have a tri motor version and the R3X will be a dual performance model.

Hm… I think their X or even RAD nomenclature is going to take the place of their Tri or Quad-motor offerings. RJ even dropped hints of a potential R2X in the future. This might be the route they take if R1 sales really fall off.

Sponsored

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

When the R2/R3/R3X was revealed, RJ said the R3 would start around $10k cheaper than the R2. Since the R2 has pretty much remained exactly priced as they said 2 years ago, I'd guess the R3 pricing will be accurate and will start around $35k. If we scale up the R3 Premium and Performance similar to the R2, thats $44k and $48k. I'd guess the R3X would start around $52-$53k.

I swear he said 37k in a video with one of the influencers on reveal day, but I cannot remember whose video it was.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Maybe ignorant on my part, but I would imagine R1 has a lot of manufacturing and BOM inefficiencies based on how they are speaking about R2. I bet they could get R1 costs down in Gen3. Seems like there is a lot of room for improvement

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

How much do we think R2X will be? $70k? Very pricey. R1 territory.

I think it depends on how well the R1S continues to sell. I think it will be Gen 2 R2, Gen 3 R2, R3X, R3, Gen 3 R1S, and maybe a Gen 3 R1T if a luxury EV truck market continues to exist. There are way more R1S sold than R1T.

If an affordable smaller EV truck market appears thanks to Ford, Slate, Telo, etc. then I could see Rivian moving forward with the R2T, but they won’t be the first to market, like they were with the R1T. I think they need to stop talking about the R4 already. They’re going to Osborne themselves even more than they already have with the R3.

Again if I were them I’d sink everything into the R2, just like Tesla did with the Model Y. That’s the segment that sells. Milk it for all it’s worth.

 

[NoEquity]

Don't forget that the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) allows you deduct new car loan interest regardless of if you itemize or take standard deduction until the end of 2028. Does not apply to leases.

For me I'll be taking out a 36-month auto loan in the low 4s from my local credit union until this OBBA deduction ends then pay off the remainder of the car in full at the end of 2028 unless I can get a lower rate to refinance into. Doubtful though.

 

[DuoRivian]

Maybe ignorant on my part, but I would imagine R1 has a lot of manufacturing and BOM inefficiencies based on how they are speaking about R2. I bet they could get R1 costs down in Gen3. Seems like there is a lot of room for improvement

They renegotiated a lot of the initial contracts when they did Gen 2 as well as some simplification. Other than a full redesign I don’t expect any further major cost reductions.

 

[Eric9610]

Don't forget that the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) allows you deduct new car loan interest regardless of if you itemize or take standard deduction until the end of 2028. Does not apply to leases.

For me I'll be taking out a 36-month auto loan in the low 4s from my local credit union until this OBBA deduction ends then pay off the remainder of the car in full at the end of 2028 unless I can get a lower rate to refinance into. Doubtful though.

AGI for single filers is $100k and $200k for jointly.

 

[NoEquity]

AGI for single filers is $100k and $200k for jointly.

Ah right - good detail to add. I'm still eligible, but this won't apply to everyone.

 

[fratpack]

Yeah, definitely. Toyota/Subaru seems to be taking EVs a little more seriously these days and they’re priced competitively. I honestly hope they do well, because without competition the buyer always loses.

I think one of the things that Rivian is hung up on is that they want to continue to sell their R1 line. If I were them I would go all in on the R2 and just let it cannibalize the Gen 2 R1T/S. Then a few years down the road, after the release of the R3, turn around and release a Gen 3 R1T/S that has all of the upgrades from the R2 and then some starting at a more reasonable price. That way you could potentially upsell all of your R2 owners who need more space, more capability, etc.

Or there’s always the option of an R2X along side the R3X to capture more of the upscale market while staying on the same platform. There are many ways Rivian could go, but I hope they chose wisely and continue to grow, expanding into markets like the UK and Europe where EVs are really taking off.

I think Rivian has their whole focus on quickly delivering as many vehicles as possible to turn their losses to profits. They are on a good run now with the R2 as folks who are getting them are loving them. The only way the lease prices and financing will go down is if people stop buying them. I don't see that happening soon. As far as Subaru and Toyota goes...Both companies have very deep pockets so $5 billion loss to them is a drop in the bucket. What I am thinking about is folks are buying the R2's as soon as they pop out of the assembly line. I hope Rivian builds they're service centers as quickly as they are selling the R2's. Once I get mine, I don't want to call a service center and be told there is a 2 month wait for service or that parts are unavailoable. One other item I am looking at is how much the insurance is going to cost. I have a Genesis GV70 Electrified. My insurance went up about 10%. But they are saying a brand new company with a brand new product is a different story and insurance will be a lot higher. We will soon see.

Sponsored