Finance vs. Lease the R2 -- the math

[Gen(R3)Xer]

I have a bold prediction... R2 will not have a tri motor version and the R3X will be a dual performance model.

Hm… I think their X or even RAD nomenclature is going to take the place of their Tri or Quad-motor offerings. RJ even dropped hints of a potential R2X in the future. This might be the route they take if R1 sales really fall off.

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[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

When the R2/R3/R3X was revealed, RJ said the R3 would start around $10k cheaper than the R2. Since the R2 has pretty much remained exactly priced as they said 2 years ago, I'd guess the R3 pricing will be accurate and will start around $35k. If we scale up the R3 Premium and Performance similar to the R2, thats $44k and $48k. I'd guess the R3X would start around $52-$53k.

I swear he said 37k in a video with one of the influencers on reveal day, but I cannot remember whose video it was.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Maybe ignorant on my part, but I would imagine R1 has a lot of manufacturing and BOM inefficiencies based on how they are speaking about R2. I bet they could get R1 costs down in Gen3. Seems like there is a lot of room for improvement

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

How much do we think R2X will be? $70k? Very pricey. R1 territory.

I think it depends on how well the R1S continues to sell. I think it will be Gen 2 R2, Gen 3 R2, R3X, R3, Gen 3 R1S, and maybe a Gen 3 R1T if a luxury EV truck market continues to exist. There are way more R1S sold than R1T.

If an affordable smaller EV truck market appears thanks to Ford, Slate, Telo, etc. then I could see Rivian moving forward with the R2T, but they won’t be the first to market, like they were with the R1T. I think they need to stop talking about the R4 already. They’re going to Osborne themselves even more than they already have with the R3.

Again if I were them I’d sink everything into the R2, just like Tesla did with the Model Y. That’s the segment that sells. Milk it for all it’s worth.

 

[NoEquity]

Don't forget that the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) allows you deduct new car loan interest regardless of if you itemize or take standard deduction until the end of 2028. Does not apply to leases.

For me I'll be taking out a 36-month auto loan in the low 4s from my local credit union until this OBBA deduction ends then pay off the remainder of the car in full at the end of 2028 unless I can get a lower rate to refinance into. Doubtful though.

 

[DuoRivian]

Maybe ignorant on my part, but I would imagine R1 has a lot of manufacturing and BOM inefficiencies based on how they are speaking about R2. I bet they could get R1 costs down in Gen3. Seems like there is a lot of room for improvement

They renegotiated a lot of the initial contracts when they did Gen 2 as well as some simplification. Other than a full redesign I don’t expect any further major cost reductions.

 

[Eric9610]

Don't forget that the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) allows you deduct new car loan interest regardless of if you itemize or take standard deduction until the end of 2028. Does not apply to leases.

For me I'll be taking out a 36-month auto loan in the low 4s from my local credit union until this OBBA deduction ends then pay off the remainder of the car in full at the end of 2028 unless I can get a lower rate to refinance into. Doubtful though.

AGI for single filers is $100k and $200k for jointly.

 

[NoEquity]

AGI for single filers is $100k and $200k for jointly.

Ah right - good detail to add. I'm still eligible, but this won't apply to everyone.

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