For Shts and giggles

[888tom888]

Rivian announced they are on track to meet 25K deliveries for MY2022. It’s also been “confirmed “ that 10K of that is Amazon vans. So of the remaining 15K what’s your best guess of T’s to S’ variants? I’ll start us off with my guess 10K T’s to 5K S version. Winner gets a free factory tour?

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[Honorz]

But people are already reporting T VINS>11k...

 

[Dark-Fx]

2500 S, 14000 R1T

 

[manitou202]

I would seriously be surprised if they built 10k delivery vans. I would guess around 1k.

Where did you see 10k vans this year?

 

[emoore]

12k vans, 15k R1T, 5k R1S.

 

[888tom888]

I would seriously be surprised if they built 10k delivery vans. I would guess around 1k.

Where did you see 10k vans this year?

Curated news feed on Flipboard on Rivian board

 

[888tom888]

12k vans, 15k R1T, 5k R1S.

Your math does not equal 25K.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Your math does not equal 25K.

I think that's the point. They adjusted from 50k to 25k a long time ago. I think they are ahead of schedule.

 

[emoore]

I think that's the point. They adjusted from 50k to 25k a long time ago. I think they are ahead of schedule.

Exactly.

 

[SANZC02]

It depends on a couple of things right now. Are they going to get the second shift running this month as planned. With the new Inflation Reduction Act that was just signed does Amazon even want to take deliveries. There is a 30% rebate for commercial vehicles capped at 40k if over 14k pounds and 7500 if under. I can’t imagine the vans are over 14k pounds but it can play into how many Amazon want this year.

My guess 5k vans, 7k R1S, 15k R1T…. I hope I’m low on vans and R1S builds.

 

[888tom888]

I think that's the point. They adjusted from 50k to 25k a long time ago. I think they are ahead of schedule.

How do you know that? Last earnings call they confirmed they were on track to hit 25K

 

[888tom888]

It depends on a couple of things right now. Are they going to get the second shift running this month as planned. With the new Inflation Reduction Act that was just signed does Amazon even want to take deliveries. There is a 30% rebate for commercial vehicles capped at 40k if over 14k pounds and 7500 if under. I can’t imagine the vans are over 14k pounds but it can play into how many Amazon want this year.

My guess 5k vans, 7k R1S, 15k R1T…. I hope I’m low on vans and R1S builds.

Again it appears your math does not equal 25K nowhere have I read production over 25K where are you getting your numbers

 

[SANZC02]

Again it appears your math does not equal 25K nowhere have I read production over 25K where are you getting your numbers

These are just guesses, I’m sure they will not get to 25k and go home, that is just the target they feel good enough to hit that they have confirmed it a couple of times.

Their throughput seems decent now, the guys from RS picked up their R1Ss at the factory last week and said they saw lots of all three of the vehicles in the staging lots. We do not know what vins are actually through production we only know what vins have been assigned to a few people in the forum. If they are able to get a second shift rolling, with the weeks left to exceed their target by 1600 it is only a little more than 1 vehicle an hour.

What good is a guessing game if you can’t assume they could pass the target?

 

[Prime]

My guess is they’re producing 2k R1Ts a month at this point, unless they add an extra shift they’re gonna reduce R1T builds and shift it to R1S so maybe approx 1k / 1k for the next few months so maybe finishing 15k R1T, 3k R1S, remaining Amazon trucks maybe around 8k narrowly beating guidances for production. Complete guess for fun based on current numbers that I’m aware of.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

My guess is they’re producing 2k R1Ts a month at this point, unless they add an extra shift they’re gonna reduce R1T builds and shift it to R1S so maybe approx 1k / 1k for the next few months so maybe finishing 15k R1T, 3k R1S, remaining Amazon trucks maybe around 8k narrowly beating guidances for production. Complete guess for fun based on current numbers that I’m aware of.

They are adding a 2nd shift.
https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2022/08/rivian-adding-second-shift-to-hit-25k-production-goal/

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