General thoughts on ICE depreciation?

[EVTrucking]

Meh. BEVs will be supply limited for years and their rapidly increasing prices are way beyond what a lot of people can afford. Buying today, the price premium on a Model Y no longer makes it cheaper to own than a comparable luxury ICE SUV. Even when prices do come down a bit, the current charging infrastructure will not be able to cope with broad adoption and it's not really clear what the business case is for fixing that.

For me it’s not about affordability. It’s about not spewing toxic chemicals and particles into the air. If ICE exhaust stunk and was colored I think we would have done something about it a long time ago. Odorless and colorless = who cares.

The price of gas does not include the cost to health and future clean up.

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[Dark-Fx]

if ICE exhaust stunk

If?? It totally stinks.

 

[Max]

Meh. BEVs will be supply limited for years and their rapidly increasing prices are way beyond what a lot of people can afford. Buying today, the price premium on a Model Y no longer makes it cheaper to own than a comparable luxury ICE SUV. Even when prices do come down a bit, the current charging infrastructure will not be able to cope with broad adoption and it's not really clear what the business case is for fixing that.

Sustainable solution may be something like RAV4 for individuals and something like mini SE plus an ICE for couples one of which does not drive much. Basically using battery for local drives with home charging and using gas for travel and towing. It requires a lot less batteries and infrastructure while having significant impact.

 

[Joe schmoe]

My daily driver for over seen years has been a Tesla model S, so I get your point, but remember there are non-trivial externalities to EVs as well. In our lifetimes there will almost certainly be tasks that chemically fueled vehicles do better (quick long distance travel, towing) simply because of the energy density available in fossil or other chemical fuels (hydrogen, biofuels, etc.).

Solar, wind, hydro, all have significant limitations as well, particularly in their ability to scale. Nuclear has mostly political limitations, but the energy density of uranium is completely unmatched by anything else.

Cheap energy is probably the single biggest factor lifting people out of poverty worldwide, so while rich countries will see adoption of "greener" technologies it's going to take much longer for most of the world.

Also I think it's helpful to keep in mind that one of the original motivations to push for adoption of automobiles with ICE engines was health and environmental concerns--city streets were covered with horse poop which was unpleasant and unhealthy.

I'm all in on electric cars for most of my driving, but I'll keep my 2006 Honda Pilot until it's no longer economically repairable.

 

[av8or]

I’m also on a wrangler forum so I posed this question over there. It should be fun to see the differing views about the inevitable disruption that’s coming.

I’m guessing I’ll get shredded over there for even bringing it up. ???

 

[BigSkies]

I love EV’s and truly believe they are the future.

But I don’t think there’s a major depreciation inflection point going to happen.

You’ve got maybe 20% of the population that are diehard EV fans. Then you’ve maybe got 20% of the population that will give up their ICE vehicle over their cold dead body. The remaining 60% will mostly just buy whatever is most economical and convenient for their use case.

I don’t see this changing until we get to the point that gas stations and ICE service centers start becoming challenging to find in parts of the country. And we’re decades from that.

 

[Aroohoo]

I’m all in on EVs, so it might be a little more obvious what I think. I’ve had a few conversations with friends and family about when the depreciation graph for ice vehicles will get very steep and to my surprise most of them think little will change in this regard for quite a while.
With so many states that are looking to end ice passenger car sales by 2030-2035, and car loans that get stretched out 6 and 7 years…..When do you think you want to get rid of your ice cars?


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/washington-state-plans-ban-non-electric-vehicles-2030-rcna21683
Thats 7.5 years away.
Might be the first of many states to want to be greener than their neighbor.

If I remember correctly, when I looked at the language of the bill that was first proposed the 2030 wasn't a hard deadline. There were certain conditions needed to be met for it to actually kill off new ICE sales. I haven't looked at the actual signed legislation, so maybe that has changed.

Personally, I'm all in on electric (I've got a S and a T preorder, have just put in solar panels, etc.) But I struggle with policy that selects one technology over another. IMHO, the policy should set a mpg/empg, or emissions/seat mile standard instead of selecting one approach over another. That said, I fully appreciate that a lot of what would accomplish this requires massive infrastructure investment (e.g. charging stations) to be successful so specific policy makes some sense.

To bring my rant back on track to the topic of this thread, I can't see ICE deprecating much faster because of a ban. Reality is, until there are more used and new EVs at a price point that can replace the $5000 used car (assuming these will come back after the supply chain issues die down) or the $20,000 new car, they won't replace the vast majority of ICE vehicles that are on the road. Once that transition does happen, the residual value of ICE vehicles that aren't collector cars will collapse.

 

[av8or]

If I remember correctly, when I looked at the language of the bill that was first proposed the 2030 wasn't a hard deadline. There were certain conditions needed to be met for it to actually kill off new ICE sales. I haven't looked at the actual signed legislation, so maybe that has changed.

Personally, I'm all in on electric (I've got a S and a T preorder, have just put in solar panels, etc.) But I struggle with policy that selects one technology over another. IMHO, the policy should set a mpg/empg, or emissions/seat mile standard instead of selecting one approach over another. That said, I fully appreciate that a lot of what would accomplish this requires massive infrastructure investment (e.g. charging stations) to be successful so specific policy makes some sense.

To bring my rant back on track to the topic of this thread, I can't see ICE deprecating much faster because of a ban. Reality is, until there are more used and new EVs at a price point that can replace the $5000 used car (assuming these will come back after the supply chain issues die down) or the $20,000 new car, they won't replace the vast majority of ICE vehicles that are on the road. Once that transition does happen, the residual value of ICE vehicles that aren't collector cars will collapse.

I feel like the 20k new EV is almost here. BYD, Geely, NIO, and many others are getting ready to take over if we keep sitting on our hands.
https://www.globalfleet.com/en/manu...nas-dominance-global-ev-market-helping-fleets

 

[DuckTruck]

You mean you haven't already?? We are keeping the Volt, strictly as an extra vehicle. With my Rivian at service today, the Volt worked out great. Commute was all electric, got home with 1 mile of range left. If it turns out I need to run an errand for work, I would still be able to.

I love my ELR (the Volt's cousin) for that same reason, even if I don't drive it much. It is comforting to have an around town car that can handle 250/week with 110v home charging and zero gas, while still being able to drive cross-country at freeway speeds at ~36 mpg, when needed. My R1T will go in for service this week, and the ELR may get the chance to get outdoors for the day, weather permitting (wouldn't want to get it wet!) ?

 

[emoore]

I love EV’s and truly believe they are the future.

But I don’t think there’s a major depreciation inflection point going to happen.

You’ve got maybe 20% of the population that are diehard EV fans. Then you’ve maybe got 20% of the population that will give up their ICE vehicle over their cold dead body. The remaining 60% will mostly just buy whatever is most economical and convenient for their use case.

I don’t see this changing until we get to the point that gas stations and ICE service centers start becoming challenging to find in parts of the country. And we’re decades from that.

S curve. It will happen sooner than most think. Just like the prediction of solar and wind. Happened much faster than all the estimates.

 

[DuckTruck]

I love EV’s and truly believe they are the future.

But I don’t think there’s a major depreciation inflection point going to happen.

You’ve got maybe 20% of the population that are diehard EV fans. Then you’ve maybe got 20% of the population that will give up their ICE vehicle over their cold dead body. The remaining 60% will mostly just buy whatever is most economical and convenient for their use case.

I don’t see this changing until we get to the point that gas stations and ICE service centers start becoming challenging to find in parts of the country. And we’re decades from that.

I agree with what you said here. I also think that the move towards EV will hasten as manufacturers continue to shift more R&D money into electrics, and the public finds them more compelling than ICE-mobiles.

Fast, fun, fancy, and frugal will win the day, especially for that 60% of the population you mention (which I think may be even larger).

"If you build it, they will come"

 

[Dark-Fx]

The remaining 60% will mostly just buy whatever is most economical and convenient for their use case.

This is one of the only thing I am worried about with EVs. The recycling value of the raw materials is always going to be fairly significant, there won't be any truly inexpensive used EVs that can still be a fit for most people.

 

[Gator42]

I’ve thought about this a lot, and I wish I knew. I suspect there will be pockets of the USA that look a lot like the streets of Cuba in 30 years.

Yes, outlawing EVs doesn’t make ICE vehicles useless. Even in the extreme possibility ICE is outlawed in parts of the earth it doesn’t mean they’re worthless where they aren’t.

…there’s value in being the last ICEman ?

 

[Tomgriff]

To switch to all EVs, there are some real barriers that may not be solvable in the next 8 years. There are very few EVs on the used car market and those that are not large enough for a family with three or more kids or are very expensive. No minivan/mid to large SUV competitors yet (in my opinion MX 3rd row is not competitive with a minivan and price certainly isn't/MY 3rd row is only for small kids). Rural American (where I grew up) and large chunks of sparsely populated areas don't have the infrastructure yet and cold weather range on EVs poses a real challenge. While location of chargers are adequate along major interstates, imagine the lines if the number of EVs triple or quadruple without a corresponding increase in the number of stations. I've already had to wait at several Superchargers (Issaquah, WA has had a line both times I used it and Woodburn, OR once) because all stall were full. While I've had good luck with Electrify America for our non-Tesla, seeing a few people struggle with charging their Rivian on youtube shows that the system isn't ready for everyone yet.

 

[MXA121]

I think major depreciation on ICE fully depends on the competing EV space. Gas Truck values will be strong for another decade at this rate given their range/towing abilities, but most other segments are much more venerable.
Now that I have a Model 3, the only ICE vehicle I can see in my future is a 3 pedal sports car..

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