Good Perspective on Rivian Stock

[nc10]

Can only hope. 40,000 seems really high, even including edv’s. Wont be anything near 10k in Q1, so a ~50k rate for rest of the year? Do we know if edv’s are shipping?

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[Atlrivian]

There is no way Rivian meets expectations on this call. They will pull a Lucid and the stock will go down. My evidence is the compete lack of deliveries in the last quarter to anyone but insiders.

Edit: To clarify I think guidance will be down for the year, and so will the previous quarter's income/deliveries.

 

[lostpacket]

I have a galaxy brain idea.

Rivian needs to report the number of cup holders delivered, then they can scale the number of cup holders per truck.

I'm so gunning for RJ's job.

 

[Scoiatael]

There is no way Rivian meets expectations on this call. They will pull a Lucid and the stock will go down. My evidence is the compete lack of deliveries in the last quarter to anyone but insiders.

Edit: To clarify I think guidance will be down for the year, and so will the previous quarter's income/deliveries.

Agreed. I'm loading up on puts tomorrow.

 

[Scoiatael]

Anyone wanna sell me their Lightning?

No, really.

Nope, I plan on keeping my Lightning for at least 3 years, then see what's out there.

 

[Craigins]

Can only hope. 40,000 seems really high, even including edv’s. Wont be anything near 10k in Q1, so a ~50k rate for rest of the year? Do we know if edv’s are shipping?

Way too high, wonder what genius picked that number.

They'd need to be running at max factory capacity by the end of 2022, which the S-1 states is projected for the end of 2023.

They are only on the hook to deliver 10,000 edvs in 2022.

 

[Chris S]

You know, people want to give "legacy auto" grief (not saying you are), but the dealer rep for me has been great, and as far as I can tell more helpful than the Guides have been. Ford is actually out talking and interacting with people to clear up questions, and Mike Levine will communicate with random Joe. I know their wave process and some dealers have caused frustration and/or confusion for some, but Ford feels much more responsive and accessible to me personally than Rivian. Rivian CS reps try to do what they can, but their hands are clearly tied with a lack of information.

I'm glad you've had a positive experience, but mine w/ Ford hasn't been any better. I have 1 Bronco and 2 Lightning reservations, all made within 10-15 minutes of their respective sites going live. I have an order for my Bronco, but no VIN or expected ETA. I missed the cut for the Lightning, meaning I'm looking at a '23 model at the earliest..

Ford has screwed customers and dealers alike with both botched launches. With the Bronco, they initially stated reservations would be fulfilled based on order received, w/ minor variations for production batching. After the first year, they switched to their typical dealer allocation model, which meant some customers could go to bigger dealers and get a Bronco (albeit @ a markup) in a relatively short time while initial reservations were passed by.

For the Lightning, they were again supposed to be fulfilled in order, but then Ford allowed dealers to prioritize a certain % of orders to preferred customers and/or those willing to bid the highest.

In both cases, they rewarded dealers who charged big markups while publicly warning dealers not to mark up the vehicles.

They're making some great products, but the sales arm is run by dishonest assholes.

 

[Max]

You know, people want to give "legacy auto" grief (not saying you are), but the dealer rep for me has been great, and as far as I can tell more helpful than the Guides have been. Ford is actually out talking and interacting with people to clear up questions, and Mike Levine will communicate with random Joe. I know their wave process and some dealers have caused frustration and/or confusion for some, but Ford feels much more responsive and accessible to me personally than Rivian. Rivian CS reps try to do what they can, but their hands are clearly tied with a lack of information.

The only Lightning I would consider is Pro around $46K. It was not available to me on second wave. So I skipped it but kept the reservation. I will probably get another invitation for next model year before Rivian guide contact me. Even though the price gate took away a lot of my enthusiasm, I still feel much better about Rivian than Ford but not confident that Rivian won’t pull something else about R1S Explore before it is my turn or if it can hold the estimated window (23 1H). Lightening probably will lose some of the tax credit by then. Large back seat area, 9.2 KW AC, full size spare and potentially longer lasting suspension (only an assumption) is a plus for F150 but my dealer experience so far has not been great and that is definitely a plus on Rivian side also R1S size, range, interior and now the $15K early bird especial makes it more attractive. I am hoping later this year when I get the email from Ford, Pro is ‘sold out’ again so I don’t have a choice and get the Rivian by default.

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