Invest in RIVN Now While Price is Low?

[Oldsmobile_Mike]

I worry by the time we are in production, consumers aren't going to have the appetite to buy in the volumes Rivian needs.

Really, really need to get to the point where they can sell them in Europe. Before BYD, etc., completely dominate that market.

Sponsored

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I still think there is a lot of room to leverage the existing partnership with VW. Rivian needs revenue. The EREV revolution is coming and Rivian needs to make sure they are positioned to take advantage of it.

An interview posted today between RJ and Doug DeMuro revealed that RJ flat-out said an EREV is never going to happen for Rivian. RJ called it a throwaway technology and explained that he believes EVs are going to advance fast enough that EREVs aren't going to be around too long so developing one wouldn't be a good idea for Rivian.

 

[SASSquatch]

An interview posted today between RJ and Doug DeMuro revealed that RJ flat-out said an EREV is never going to happen for Rivian. RJ called it a throwaway technology and explained that he believes EVs are going to advance fast enough that EREVs aren't going to be around too long so developing one wouldn't be a good idea for Rivian.

I didn't watch that interview so thanks for the context. I don't think Rivian will ever develop an EREV but that doesn't stop them from partnering with VW (or someone else) to provide Rivian's technology and IP for the electrification piece of the EREV.

Respectfully, I completely disagree with RJ on this one. If the climate in the US were different, than I would actually agree with him - but the last 8 months has revealed that this Administration is as anti-EV as you can possibly be. OEMs are pulling back on investments and rethinking their positions on EV only line-ups moving forward. EV skepticism in the US consumer is also at its highest with EV infrastructure rollout slowed dramatically in terms of policy and investment.

The most pro-EV economy is China, who dominates the world EV market. Nearly every brand either sells or is going to sell an EREV. The Chinese have a complete monopoly on the majority of rare earth's that go into batteries and can produce them at a fraction of the cost that anyone else can and they are embracing EREVs because they just make sense as something to offer in their portfolio.

EREVs are wildly more efficient than hybrids and are less expensive to build because you aren't creating two redundant drivetrains. They also completely eliminate range anxiety and offer most of the advantages of electrification (speed, interior space, handling, regenerative braking, reduced maintenance, safety, etc).

If we had a Pro EV administration that was leaning into electrification hard, than I would agree with RJ but we are on the opposite end of the spectrum. OEMs know this. That is why almost all of them are rethinking their future EV rollouts and are leaning into hybrids (which I think is a mistake) and/or considering EREVs.

And demand speaks volumes. Hands down the best Hybrid design is from Toyota. Go try and buy a Toyota hybrid. You'll be waiting a long time. There are waitlists for months.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I didn't watch that interview so thanks for the context. I don't think Rivian will ever develop an EREV but that doesn't stop them from partnering with VW (or someone else) to provide Rivian's technology and IP for the electrification piece of the EREV.

Respectfully, I completely disagree with RJ on this one. If the climate in the US were different, than I would actually agree with him - but the last 8 months has revealed that this Administration is as anti-EV as you can possibly be. OEMs are pulling back on investments and rethinking their positions on EV only line-ups moving forward. EV skepticism in the US consumer is also at its highest with EV infrastructure rollout slowed dramatically in terms of policy and investment.

The most pro-EV economy is China, who dominates the world EV market. Nearly every brand either sells or is going to sell an EREV. The Chinese have a complete monopoly on the majority of rare earth's that go into batteries and can produce them at a fraction of the cost that anyone else can and they are embracing EREVs because they just make sense as something to offer in their portfolio.

EREVs are wildly more efficient than hybrids and are less expensive to build because you aren't creating two redundant drivetrains. They also completely eliminate range anxiety and offer most of the advantages of electrification (speed, interior space, handling, regenerative braking, reduced maintenance, safety, etc).

If we had a Pro EV administration that was leaning into electrification hard, than I would agree with RJ but we are on the opposite end of the spectrum. OEMs know this. That is why almost all of them are rethinking their future EV rollouts and are leaning into hybrids (which I think is a mistake) and/or considering EREVs.

And demand speaks volumes. Hands down the best Hybrid design is from Toyota. Go try and buy a Toyota hybrid. You'll be waiting a long time. There are waitlists for months.

The current administration is anti-EV; we agree on that point. I also think that ceding the tech high ground to China in EVs is a political and economic mistake. With that said, I agree with RJ. For people who can charge at home, current BEV technology is enough for 90% of them. For those who cannot reliably charge at home, an EREV isn't going to move the needle very much.

If you cannot charge at home, you won't reap the benefits of an EREV because you wouldn't be using the plug-in aspect. Therefore, you would be the same as if you bought a standard hybrid in terms of fuel economy. EREVs are great if you take tons of long trips or need to tow a bunch of stuff, but some EVs do those things pretty well these days too. If you need more towing than a BEV Silverado, you should get a diesel.

The things an EREV is better at don't matter because current existing technologies are enough to address consumer needs today.

 

[SASSquatch]

The current administration is anti-EV; we agree on that point. I also think that ceding the tech high ground to China in EVs is a political and economic mistake. With that said, I agree with RJ. For people who can charge at home, current BEV technology is enough for 90% of them. For those who cannot reliably charge at home, an EREV isn't going to move the needle very much.

If you cannot charge at home, you won't reap the benefits of an EREV because you wouldn't be using the plug-in aspect. Therefore, you would be the same as if you bought a standard hybrid in terms of fuel economy. EREVs are great if you take tons of long trips or need to tow a bunch of stuff, but some EVs do those things pretty well these days too. If you need more towing than a BEV Silverado, you should get a diesel.

The things an EREV is better at don't matter because current existing technologies are enough to address consumer needs today.

You are completely underestimating the pyschology of the consumer. An EREV is an electric vehicle it just happens to have a small efficient ICE attached to it to serve the 10-20% use case of roadtrips and towing. An EREV also allows you to carry significantly less weight because you aren't adding weight by carrying a much larger battery than you need for your day-to-day. Most people with big batteries are carrying around a ton of weight that is dragging down the efficiency of the system and I can speak from direct experience since I have been driving an EREV for nearly a decade.

An EREV is much more effecient than a hybrid even if you don't plug it in because a hybrid is carrying around extra weight and is losing efficiency across two redundant drivetrains. My BMW i3s when I'm driving on the highway on the ICE gets 45-50 miles to the gallon.

The demand for the Scout trucks also spoke volumes. The overwhelming majority of reservations are for the EREVs. A friend of mine, who wouldn't even look at an EV is so excited about the Scout pickup truck. He's planning to install a charger at his house (he already has) he just loves the idea of being able to tow and not having to worry about charging on the road. As a consumer who is hesitant to depend on an EV infrastructure that is severely lacking vs gas infrastructure, you completely eliminate that fear with an EREV. The majority of people who are hesitant to by an EV aren't hesitant because they can't figure out a way to charge at home, it's that they don't want to deal with the nightmare of trying to charge on the road.

This current administration has set back EV infrastructure, development, and investment by a decade. In that decade, I'd rather people by an EREV then an ICE or a hybrid if they aren't going to buy an EV.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Really, really need to get to the point where they can sell them in Europe. Before BYD, etc., completely dominate that market.

Unless the Europeans step up in a big way (haven’t yet) it’s probably already too late in that regard. The only thing standing in the way of it happening is if PLA invades Taiwan. All sorts of embargoes would be put up immediately.

 

[mkg3]

...This current administration has set back EV infrastructure, development, and investment by a decade. In that decade, I'd rather people by an EREV then an ICE or a hybrid if they aren't going to buy an EV.

Curious. Are you saying that the only or the primary reason for your advocacy of EREV is environmentally motivated?

My sense is that the most people see EREV as a mean to resolve range anxiety and flexibility on the road trips and distances.

 

[BigSkies]

Here’s my perspective as someone who works in corporate finance.

First off, no one can really predict the direction of a stock. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either a fool, or trying to sell you a newsletter.

Preparing full company financials and developing forecasts at a Fortune 50 company, I couldn’t even predict the direction of our stock with access to all types of non-public information.

With that being said, here’s my predictions for Rivian the company, and the stock.

Rivian the company has the tools needed to become a much larger player. They are investing for the long term. There’s no guarantees they will succeed, but they do have a clear pathway to get there.

Rivian the stock is dead-money until there is clarity on the financial path within a 1-2 year timeframe. The major catalysts that will move the stock:
-A successful or unsuccessful R2 launch.
-Clarity on the DOE loan.
-Clarity on the GA factory coming online
-A defined path to enter international markets (presumably related to the GA factory)

 

[SASSquatch]

Curious. Are you saying that the only or the primary reason for your advocacy of EREV is environmentally motivated?

My sense is that the most people see EREV as a mean to resolve range anxiety and flexibility on the road trips and distances.

I'm motivated by pragmatics. I actually agree with RJ in that EREVs are ultimately a "throw-away" technology. Eventually, charging density and battery chemistry will usurp the advantages afforded in range and range anxiety that are alleviated by an EREV design.

The problem is that given the current political climate and policy, we are at least 10 years (likely more) away from having the mass production of solid state batteries and development of mass charging infrastructure density needed to overcome the limitations of EVs today.

EREVs are a way to bridge that gap while still investing in a path towards full electrification. EREV's allow for continued investment and refinement of EV/battery architecture. They alleviate a critical practical and psychological hurdle consumers have regarding EVs today: range anxiety. And, they allow for ultimately moving away from ICE technology altogether since they expose the consumer to the overwhelming advantages of EVs without the current pain-points.

EREV's also take gas-guzzling vehicles off the road. Yes, people will likely use gas on road trips, but the EREV ICE is way more efficient since it can operate in a very narrow RPM since it is only acting as as an electricity generator. Filling up an EREV with gas will likely cost the consumer substantially less than charging to the same combined range in mileage considering the extremely high cost per kWh of electricity at L3 chargers.

It isn't at all surprising that RJ is against EREV's considering Rivian's future is entirely tied to mass adoption of EVs, but unfortunately we aren't in a supportive climate for that.

 

[NeedSumCoffee]

Honestly I’d avoid. With mpg credits and EV credits disappearing and tariffs, Rivian is going to take a big hit. Prices will likely drop to $9 before end of the year. Current administration really is not good for EV investment.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Who the hell knows. It's going to be a rocky road for quite a while. Euphoria from initial on-time launch will probably raise demand and share price. But then first whiff of perceived product quality/reliability, however minor, would immediate drive shares down. The trolls, Karens/Kens and Negative Nancies will pile on and drive it down even further. As production ramps at Normal, and with good production numbers, shares will come back up again... Then as GA plant build-out kick into new gear, and cash burn continues, shares will fall again. On and on... ups and downs.

Anyone looking for a get-rich-quick scheme, this is not your horse to bet on. Even Tesla was not an overnight success. Its stock got kicked in the arse multiple times, until it turned into a cult meme. If you're in for the long term and you understand the basic rule of investing—i.e. don't invest $ you're not willing to lose—and have the means to, by all means, get shares while they are cheap. Today, it's only 15.9% of IPO price of $78.

 

[Jonger1150]

An interview posted today between RJ and Doug DeMuro revealed that RJ flat-out said an EREV is never going to happen for Rivian. RJ called it a throwaway technology and explained that he believes EVs are going to advance fast enough that EREVs aren't going to be around too long so developing one wouldn't be a good idea for Rivian.

If Rivian released an EREV I would sell my Rivian and move onto a another brand.

 

[mkg3]

I'm motivated by pragmatics. I actually agree with RJ in that EREVs are ultimately a "throw-away" technology....

...we are at least 10 years (likely more) away from having the mass production of solid state batteries and development of mass charging infrastructure density needed to overcome the limitations of EVs today.

EREVs are a way to bridge that gap while still investing in a path towards full electrification...

EREV's also take gas-guzzling vehicles off the road...

It seems to me that you have a single solution. The underlying belief is that battery electric vehicles are the answer.

There are many alternative carbon-neutral approaches. Everything from e-Fuel (from carbon sequestration) to hydrogen and fuel cells. Having options and breakthroughs can have different outcomes.

As for SSB, they are already being implemented in different ways. You probably know about the Chinese EVs being offered with full SSB starting next year, The SSBs are also being used incrementally by major automakers today. Subaru for an example is using SSB on their assembly robots. While it's not a vehicle use, these stationary application can validate their life cycle and functionality. I am guessing that SSB will develop much faster to support humanoid robots that many are racing to mature and deploy.

In terms of EREV and for that matter, almost all hybrid/PHEV are interim solution to address the range anxiety and the lack of DCFC throughout the motorways. You call it "throw-away" and I call it dead-ended but mean the same. The difference is that I don't know for sure that electrification is the ultimate solution. Probably is in some form, yet I still like to keep an open mind of alternatives.

 

[SASSquatch]

It seems to me that you have a single solution. The underlying belief is that battery electric vehicles are the answer.

There are many alternative carbon-neutral approaches. Everything from e-Fuel (from carbon sequestration) to hydrogen and fuel cells. Having options and breakthroughs can have different outcomes.

As for SSB, they are already being implemented in different ways. You probably know about the Chinese EVs being offered with full SSB starting next year, The SSBs are also being used incrementally by major automakers today. Subaru for an example is using SSB on their assembly robots. While it's not a vehicle use, these stationary application can validate their life cycle and functionality. I am guessing that SSB will develop much faster to support humanoid robots that many are racing to mature and deploy.

In terms of EREV and for that matter, almost all hybrid/PHEV are interim solution to address the range anxiety and the lack of DCFC throughout the motorways. You call it "throw-away" and I call it dead-ended but mean the same. The difference is that I don't know for sure that electrification is the ultimate solution. Probably is in some form, yet I still like to keep an open mind of alternatives.

The are a range of alternative solutions but we've already made extraordinary investments and bets into electrification. There isn't a single alternative you mentioned, including e-fuels and hydrogen, that has even a fraction of the investment and momentum that electrification has for mass adoption. Hydrogen has an infrastructure problem. It would cost trillions to scale infrastructure to provide a way for people use it effectively to replace fossil fuels.

e-Fuel is intriguing, and Porsche has made investments in this space, but I have heard extremely little beyond that. I could see e-fuels having niche applications, but at scale? Probably not.

SSBs in very limited use cases such as robots or even small cells are in production in lots of places, but full scale mass production at sizes that would be required to replace existing lithiium-ion packs are still realistically 5-10 years out and maybe longer given the anti-alternative energy policy and regulatory environment we are in.

EREVs are being planned by nearly every OEM not named Tesla, Lucid or Rivian who are against them for obvious reasons.

 

[BeanEW]

I purchased a considerable amount of RIVN stocks when Rivian IPO; lost quite a bit of money. I then played the market fluctuation on RIVN and made everything back. I have been staying off RIVN for a while and believe that it is time to get back in due to R2 is coming out next year, and the price is at $12+/-.

Sponsored