NineElectrics
Well-Known Member
Promising the moon is what desperate startups do *before* they get orders. Currently Rivian has orders, so it’s fine to lose credibility.
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VSG
Well-Known Member
Rivian production got delayed about 9 months from where they intended to be - June 2021 was the first delivery start date which quickly changed to July then September 2021. And although they "technically" met this revised start date, it was for deliveries to employees, not customers. I consider the true production start to be March 2022, when they started to deliver in bulk to customers. That's a nine month delay.
Likewise, I expect everything else on their schedule to be delayed the same amount. R1S production, for instance, also delayed 9 months (Dec 2021 to Sept 20222). And, apropos to this thread, RAN rollout delayed 9 months.
Rivian announced the RAN in March 2021. For example see https://electrek.co/2021/03/18/rivian-reveals-map-planned-fast-charging-stations-wall-charger/
In that announcement Rivian said they planned to have 600 sites by the end of 2023.
As I said above, with everything slipping by 9 months, I consider Rivian to be on track if they have 600 sites by September 2024.
Build-out has accelerated recently, which is a very good sign. Again, what I would expect is that they would deploy a few sites, gain experience with their new hardware (designed and manufactured to spec, not off-the-shelf) and software (for monitoring, managing, diagnosing, and OTA updates of the chargers), then ramp up production. And in fact that's what is happening. Rivian opened the first RAN station in late June 2022. Eight months later there are now 15 sites up and running. By the end of the year I expect about 100. By Sept 2024, which would be another 9 months, I expect a minimum of 200 sites and maybe as many as 400. I don't know whether they will reach 600 in 2024, but the ramp is clearly in progress and the roll-out doesn't appear that it is being deliberately delayed by Rivian. This is simply a matter that they got started 9 months late and they are dealing with global shortages. Every major charger manufacturer is experiencing major delivery delays over the past year (Chargepoint and Wallbox, for example).
There are long timeframes for local permitting and for power electronics (including chips for the chargers and including transformers for the sites), so we're in a waiting period right now for those "orders" to arrive, but I expect that we will soon see an explosion of chargers when they get delivery of their chips.
I'm pretty positive on the future of the RAN. Yes, Rivian has had to deal with unforseeable global supply chain problems, and yes Rivian was optimistic on its roll-out predictions, but they are currently executing and the network is starting to take shape.
One thing a lot of people seem to be unaware of is that at least half of Rivian's business model is about fleet sales and turnkey support for EV fleets. Part of this is charging solutions for businesses. The RAN chargers are partially a side hustle for the real goal of being able to supply fleet charging solutions for EDV vans. Not only for Amazon, but they're laying the groundwork for the broader market. That's at least as important to Rivian's success as consumer vehicles and consumer charging networks. They need to make sure they get the charger manufacturing right from the outset so they can grow both businesses.
Likewise, I expect everything else on their schedule to be delayed the same amount. R1S production, for instance, also delayed 9 months (Dec 2021 to Sept 20222). And, apropos to this thread, RAN rollout delayed 9 months.
Rivian announced the RAN in March 2021. For example see https://electrek.co/2021/03/18/rivian-reveals-map-planned-fast-charging-stations-wall-charger/
In that announcement Rivian said they planned to have 600 sites by the end of 2023.
As I said above, with everything slipping by 9 months, I consider Rivian to be on track if they have 600 sites by September 2024.
Build-out has accelerated recently, which is a very good sign. Again, what I would expect is that they would deploy a few sites, gain experience with their new hardware (designed and manufactured to spec, not off-the-shelf) and software (for monitoring, managing, diagnosing, and OTA updates of the chargers), then ramp up production. And in fact that's what is happening. Rivian opened the first RAN station in late June 2022. Eight months later there are now 15 sites up and running. By the end of the year I expect about 100. By Sept 2024, which would be another 9 months, I expect a minimum of 200 sites and maybe as many as 400. I don't know whether they will reach 600 in 2024, but the ramp is clearly in progress and the roll-out doesn't appear that it is being deliberately delayed by Rivian. This is simply a matter that they got started 9 months late and they are dealing with global shortages. Every major charger manufacturer is experiencing major delivery delays over the past year (Chargepoint and Wallbox, for example).
There are long timeframes for local permitting and for power electronics (including chips for the chargers and including transformers for the sites), so we're in a waiting period right now for those "orders" to arrive, but I expect that we will soon see an explosion of chargers when they get delivery of their chips.
I'm pretty positive on the future of the RAN. Yes, Rivian has had to deal with unforseeable global supply chain problems, and yes Rivian was optimistic on its roll-out predictions, but they are currently executing and the network is starting to take shape.
One thing a lot of people seem to be unaware of is that at least half of Rivian's business model is about fleet sales and turnkey support for EV fleets. Part of this is charging solutions for businesses. The RAN chargers are partially a side hustle for the real goal of being able to supply fleet charging solutions for EDV vans. Not only for Amazon, but they're laying the groundwork for the broader market. That's at least as important to Rivian's success as consumer vehicles and consumer charging networks. They need to make sure they get the charger manufacturing right from the outset so they can grow both businesses.
