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Aroohoo

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I wonder where the reviewer got the 40,000 pre order number? I would like to believe he got it from Rivian but ………
In the Reddit AMA he had, he stated it was from a Rivian employee

In the same AMA, he said an employee also responded that there was a good chance he could get a car delivered by end of next year if he placed an order now.
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DucRider

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The number of pre orders would provide a better idea of where you are in line. From that information you can better guess when you might get a call from a guide.
Really?
The total number of preorders won't tell you how many are before you or after you (by date). And then the location and configuration variables also play at least an equal role. And there is no indication that Guide contacts are correlated to order date.

If they release the total number, that won't give any indication of where a particular individual is "in line" unless they also release configurations by dates correlated to their production schedule of all configurations and anticipated timing for all the delivery locations. Nothing less will answer "When will I get my vehicle". Total number of preorders is of little consequence in the delivery picture for existing order holders.

For potential orders, the conversion rate and production schedule would also have to be known to give any kind of a picture.

If they proceed with the IPO, there will be estimates with lots of disclaimers. They simply cannot know what the conversion rate will be (among other factors).

I think it likely that all LE preorder holders will hear from a Guide by Thanksgiving as promised. But those calls will not likely to provide much more than a broad range for delivery.
 

EVTrucking

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Really?
The total number of preorders won't tell you how many are before you or after you (by date). And then the location and configuration variables also play at least an equal role. And there is no indication that Guide contacts are correlated to order date.

If they release the total number, that won't give any indication of where a particular individual is "in line" unless they also release configurations by dates correlated to their production schedule of all configurations and anticipated timing for all the delivery locations. Nothing less will answer "When will I get my vehicle". Total number of preorders is of little consequence in the delivery picture for existing order holders.

For potential orders, the conversion rate and production schedule would also have to be known to give any kind of a picture.

If they proceed with the IPO, there will be estimates with lots of disclaimers. They simply cannot know what the conversion rate will be (among other factors).

I think it likely that all LE preorder holders will hear from a Guide by Thanksgiving as promised. But those calls will not likely to provide much more than a broad range for delivery.
Yes really.

I make the assumption that if Rivian revealed the number they would provide a few dates of how many by when. Kind of like Ford.

For example : I reserved Lightning 6/3 and Ford reported 100,000 reservations by 6/9. That tells me that I am around 90,000th. So a rough estimate, ignoring other influences is that I will probably not get a truck for about 1.5 years.

I reserved R1T 3/20/21. If I new roughly how many pre orders at that time I could rough guess, again ignoring other influences, when my R1T might be ready. I would of course have to make a guess at production rate. If there are 50,000 ahead me then there can be little doubt that it will be more than a year.

I am not thinking knowing pre order number would provide an accurate date, just a ball park.

I am fully aware of the swing in delivery date that location and config. could make.
 

DucRider

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Yes really.

I make the assumption that if Rivian revealed the number they would provide a few dates of how many by when. Kind of like Ford.

For example : I reserved Lightning 6/3 and Ford reported 100,000 reservations by 6/9. That tells me that I am around 90,000th. So a rough estimate, ignoring other influences is that I will probably not get a truck for about 1.5 years.

I reserved R1T 3/20/21. If I new roughly how many pre orders at that time I could rough guess, again ignoring other influences, when my R1T might be ready. I would of course have to make a guess at production rate. If there are 50,000 ahead me then there can be little doubt that it will be more than a year.

I am not thinking knowing pre order number would provide an accurate date, just a ball park.

I am fully aware of the swing in delivery date that location and config. could make.
So you are looking for more than just the number of preorders.
 

mkhuffman

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Yes really.

I make the assumption that if Rivian revealed the number they would provide a few dates of how many by when. Kind of like Ford.

For example : I reserved Lightning 6/3 and Ford reported 100,000 reservations by 6/9. That tells me that I am around 90,000th. So a rough estimate, ignoring other influences is that I will probably not get a truck for about 1.5 years.

I reserved R1T 3/20/21. If I new roughly how many pre orders at that time I could rough guess, again ignoring other influences, when my R1T might be ready. I would of course have to make a guess at production rate. If there are 50,000 ahead me then there can be little doubt that it will be more than a year.

I am not thinking knowing pre order number would provide an accurate date, just a ball park.

I am fully aware of the swing in delivery date that location and config. could make.
Based on what many people are experiencing with their Ford Mustang Mach-E orders, no matter how much data you have, you will struggle to understand why your order is not filled while others are. There has been much debate in the MME forum I participate in, and nobody seems to have a clear picture how Ford is allocating deliveries. Some people who ordered early are still waiting, while others who ordered late already have their car. And many, many deliveries are experiencing unexpected delays due to shortages of chips and who knows what else.

Finding out the total number of reservations will be interesting, but using it to predict when you will get your vehicle won't be reliable at all. Rivian is going to experience all the same problems Ford has with the MME, and maybe even worse because they are a new manufacturer.

Hopefully the supply chain issues will be resolved over the next year, but I just read an article about how the worldwide supply chain is on the verge of collapse. Of course if that happens we will be more worried about other shortages than our cars, but still. There are too many factors to consider and total number of orders is not going to help you. IMO.
 

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kommonplace

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Yes really.

I make the assumption that if Rivian revealed the number they would provide a few dates of how many by when. Kind of like Ford.

For example : I reserved Lightning 6/3 and Ford reported 100,000 reservations by 6/9. That tells me that I am around 90,000th. So a rough estimate, ignoring other influences is that I will probably not get a truck for about 1.5 years.

I reserved R1T 3/20/21. If I new roughly how many pre orders at that time I could rough guess, again ignoring other influences, when my R1T might be ready. I would of course have to make a guess at production rate. If there are 50,000 ahead me then there can be little doubt that it will be more than a year.

I am not thinking knowing pre order number would provide an accurate date, just a ball park.

I am fully aware of the swing in delivery date that location and config. could make.
The question is what does RIVIAN gain by doing this. This explains what you gain. I think it really illustrates what Rivian would stand to lose if the information were disclosed. If, for example, I found out today that I would almost certainly not be getting my R1S until mid-2023... I may very well go ahead and order something else today, because I simply can't wait that long. But for now, I can keep hoping it will be sooner.

Just my thoughts. I think we'd all like as much information as we can get our hands on, but I don't know that disclosing the number of preorders benefits Rivian in any way, and may have the opposite effect. (Hearing "a million preorders for the Cybertruck" does NOT make me want to preorder one because it just makes me feel like my wait would be many years away. Hearing "Rivain only has 10000 preorders" does NOT inspire confidence in the company's long-term outlook. I think it's lose-lose for Rivian.)

All that said, I would have to think it will eventually come out anyway.
 

Craigins

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I think it likely that all LE preorder holders will hear from a Guide by Thanksgiving as promised.
I'm starting to worry about this deadline. There are only around 340 business hours left until the end of Nov.

That would mean one of 2 options. 1) they have a large number of idle guides chomping at the bit waiting to do calls or 2) there are fewer LE preorders then we are anticipating.

Unless you count an automated email from a guide's email address as "contacting"
 

Zoidz

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Yes really.

I make the assumption that if Rivian revealed the number they would provide a few dates of how many by when. Kind of like Ford.

For example : I reserved Lightning 6/3 and Ford reported 100,000 reservations by 6/9. That tells me that I am around 90,000th. So a rough estimate, ignoring other influences is that I will probably not get a truck for about 1.5 years.

I reserved R1T 3/20/21. If I new roughly how many pre orders at that time I could rough guess, again ignoring other influences, when my R1T might be ready. I would of course have to make a guess at production rate. If there are 50,000 ahead me then there can be little doubt that it will be more than a year.

I am not thinking knowing pre order number would provide an accurate date, just a ball park.

I am fully aware of the swing in delivery date that location and config. could make.
From a general business sense, IMO it does more harm than good to the company if they announce the number of preorders.

Across most industries manufacturing a discrete product, I struggle to come up with more than one or two manufacturers who routinely announce the number of preorders on their products. Of course Tesla does it with Elon "PT Barnum" as the bragging showman/ringleader. Look at all the CT protypes spotted on the street.... oh wait... But we've known from day 1 that RJ is the antithesis of Elon. Ford did it to boost their image after falling waaaayy behind in the EV Truck Market.

It might be nice, but it's I think it's unrealistic to expect them to release this information. Without knowing production volume, production ramp up rate, actual preorder followthrough rate, and right now, supply chain constraints, knowing the number of preorders is as helpful as throwing a dart at a 730 day calendar.
 

moosehead

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While Rivian may be enjoying strong pre-production reviews, pre-orders sight unseen, and a fertile stock market, they still need to execute for the customer.

This includes timely delivery, communication, reliability, EV charging, crash safety, and service ability, among other things.

While I am as excited as the next deposit order, much of this is TBD.
 

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While Rivian may be enjoying strong pre-production reviews, pre-orders sight unseen, and a fertile stock market, they still need to execute for the customer.

This includes timely delivery, communication, reliability, EV charging, crash safety, and service ability, among other things.

While I am as excited as the next deposit order, much of this is TBD.
I agree that if the pre-orders are low or very high it could negatively impact Rivian.

Ford, Tesla and Lucid have made public their reservations. I know that I am in the 90,000th section of the line for a Lightning. Easy to conclude that I will not get a Lightning in 2022.

I reserved R1T late (3/20/21)
so the number of reservations gives me an idea as whether I might see R1T in 2022 or 2023 or 2024. If I were an early pre order then the number of pre orders would not help to make a prediction of what year I may get my truck.

I am assuming that Rivian has a solid number of pre- orders because of the continued financial support they are getting.

We need to remember that early pre orderers are different than late pre orderers.

On reflection I admit it was too much to expect Rivian to follow what others have done regarding reporting reservations.

I will wait and see what happens.
 

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SANZC02

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I agree that if the pre-orders are low or very high it could negatively impact Rivian.

Ford, Tesla and Lucid have made public their reservations. I know that I am in the 90,000th section of the line for a Lightning. Easy to conclude that I will not get a Lightning in 2022.

I reserved R1T late (3/20/21)
so the number of reservations gives me an idea as whether I might see R1T in 2022 or 2023 or 2024. If I were an early pre order then the number of pre orders would not help to make a prediction of what year I may get my truck.

I am assuming that Rivian has a solid number of pre- orders because of the continued financial support they are getting.

We need to remember that early pre orderers are different than late pre orderers.

On reflection I admit it was too much to expect Rivian to follow what others have done regarding reporting reservations.

I will wait and see what happens.
One of the reviewers said theytalked to a Rivian Exec, mentioned they had around 40k preorders and there is a chance they could all be delivered by end of 2022.

sounds aggressive to me but that was what he heard. Unfortunately I do not recall which of the reviews it was but was in the last quarter of the review.

edit: You can find the review in this thread, he does not say who said it in the review but did say something in the QA he had as well
 
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