Reservations placed AFTER March 2022

[jebinc]

I have 2 active orders: one from last year and one from January. NEITHER of them has an estimated delivery date, I have NEVER heard from a guide, and I live less than 15 minutes from the new Austin, TX service and delivery center. As much as I would love to tell you this is realistic, I think maybe not. You are going to get your truck in *maybe 2024* first half IMHO if you are lucky. Rivian is saying they might produce the forecasted goal of 25k overall VINs this year, but if you really look into it with their current production rate, the recall they just issued, the Amazon production left to produce and all of the other factors including battery supply, I think 2H23 is just too optimistic given your place in line. They are also struggling with their new factory in GA which was supposed to pad production starting in 2024, so just not much great news on the horizon for this company.

I have heard some people say that the higher priced reservations are being given priority, but In my opinion this would be a bad business move. You want to get your older cheaper (and more pissed off) backlog of customers fulfilled and out the door so you can start more accurate financial forecasting and planning. It is true that some orders will cancel and there will be some natural attrition, but in general it will not be a large percentage.

My 2c,
J

Thanks for sharing! Re your last paragraph, Tesla does this all the time - screws early adopters for higher margin higher priced optioned up models, like the Plaid and Performance variants. So, I would guess Rivian would do the same as both are publicly traded companies with the same dynamic forces at play.

Per Rivian’s own site, Amazon van production is a completely separate line from the R1 line. What might delay R1T deliveries are new R1S unfulfilled orders.

re when/if I take delivery of a R1T, will depend on when/if Cybertruck deliveries start, as well as other competitors. I suspect if my real R1T delivery is in 2024, I will likely not become a Rivian owner as I will be driving someone else’s EV offering. I’m currently first in line for a Cybertruck, if they deliver in order of order placement,… but I suspect not - for the same reasons I suspect Rivian doesn’t either.

Sponsored

 

[JaMa]

Thanks for sharing! Re your last paragraph, Tesla does this all the time - screws early adopters for higher margin higher priced optioned up models, like the Plaid and Performance variants. So, I would guess Rivian would do the same as both are publicly traded companies with the same dynamic forces at play.

Per Rivian’s own site, Amazon van production is a completely separate line from the R1 line. What might delay R1T deliveries are new R1S unfulfilled orders.

Ya, I am on my second Tesla I know all too well of what you speak. .

This 'screwing cheaper margin customers' - bad business, but I would not put it past Rivian given the relationship many have had with them here on this forum. Still, even if they put - say - 20k orders at the higher price as a priority, lets say at $15k a pop, thats only $300mil in their pocket short term, which if you look at their books is not really a huge windfall all things considered.

Anyway good luck with your order, sincerely hope you get your vehicle earlier rather than later. I am right on the edge of ordering something I know will be produced and when, so its possible some of those cancelled orders might be mine.

J

 

[astonius]

I had a May 2019 order for an LE R1T. Placed another for an R1S in early March 2022. R1T was delayed due to OC wood issues. Experimented with switching the R1S to an R1T with BM interior in late April. Got my truck in mid-June. Now the May 2019 order is an LE R1S with OC.

Some folks have reported even tighter windows. I think there are several factors, many of which are now remedied, so I wouldn't count on this being the norm. This was right before the R1 Shop opened, which I think made the biggest impact. They also are producing more configurations now, whereas I picked a common config which I knew was being actively produced. There's also been more time for service centers to build up, so the potential delivery audience is wider.

 

[jebinc]

Ya, I am on my second Tesla I know all too well of what you speak. .

This 'screwing cheaper margin customers' - bad business, but I would not put it past Rivian given the relationship many have had with them here on this forum. Still, even if they put - say - 20k orders at the higher price as a priority, lets say at $15k a pop, thats only $300mil in their pocket short term, which if you look at their books is not really a huge windfall all things considered.

Anyway good luck with your order, sincerely hope you get your vehicle earlier rather than later. I am right on the edge of ordering something I know will be produced and when, so its possible some of those cancelled orders might be mine.

J

What are you thinking about ordering? Something that often accompanies thunder?

 

[riviansmoke]

I placed a reservation in August ‘22. I chatted with support recently and was told that orders placed in 2H22 would probably only open up for configuration in late 2023 and access to the shop wouldn’t occur until at least that time. I’m hopeful for something earlier, but realistically I’m not expecting anything until atleast Q4 23 and most likely 1H24

 

[jebinc]

I placed a reservation in August ‘22. I chatted with support recently and was told that orders placed in 2H22 would probably only open up for configuration in late 2023 and access to the shop wouldn’t occur until at least that time. I’m hopeful for something earlier, but realistically I’m not expecting anything until atleast Q4 23 and most likely 1H24

I suspect we will see a lot on change, come Spring of 2023 - when other products start hitting the market. They are many who placed low cost option orders with several brands. Once they secure a delivery with one, the others would be canceled.

 

[emoore]

I suspect we will see a lot on change, come Spring of 2023 - when other products start hitting the market. They are many who placed low cost option orders with several brands. Once they secure a delivery with one, the others would be canceled.

You can speculate all you want but when Rivian says late 2023 or early 2024 thats probably a better estimate. They have to get through a lot of preorders next year.

 

[JaMa]

What are you thinking about ordering? Something that often accompanies thunder?

Yep, I have an order for one of those, a Cybertruck and a Silverado as well. Im also considering going to a Hybrid F150. But the R1T is still my first choice.

J

 

[jebinc]

You can speculate all you want but when Rivian says late 2023 or early 2024 thats probably a better estimate. They have to get through a lot of preorders next year.

It’s not speculation, but fact, that many people put deposits down on several products - with plans to cancel the other brand reservations after they secure something. Tesla’s cost to reserve was $100, refundable. Just about everyone took that option as a hedge. Rivian is $1000, but also fully refundable. Not sure what Ford is doing. This “practice” is widely discussed in every Forum I frequent - especially Tesla CT forums.

 

[jebinc]

Yep, I have an order for one of those, a Cybertruck and a Silverado as well. Im also considering going to a Hybrid F150. But the R1T is still my first choice.

J

Love it! Thanks for “the facts” that support my accused, “speculation”!

Wishing you the best and may the early bird get the worm!

 

[emoore]

It’s not speculation, but fact, that many people put deposits down on several products - with plans to cancel the other brand reservations after they secure something. Tesla’s cost to reserve was $100, refundable. Just about everyone took that option as a hedge. Rivian is $1000, but also fully refundable. Not sure what Ford is doing. This “practice” is widely discussed in every Forum I frequent - especially Tesla CT forums.

Yeah I’m sure some people put down multiple orders. Doesn’t change the fact that Rivian thinks you will get your car late 2023 or 2024.

 

[jebinc]

Yeah I’m sure some people put down multiple orders. Doesn’t change the fact that Rivian thinks you will get your car late 2023 or 2024.

Sure, today they would think that, but come time when other brand orders firm up, Rivian (and others) will look at their order book and think something else than they do today. Orders will shift. Same for Tesla, et. al. So, I stand by my earlier statement that the landscape will look different come mid next year. Sooner if Elon gets off his @$$ and provides actual CT information (unlikely though).

 

[VSG]

I think betting on Rivian to follow Tesla's lead in everything is a bad bet. Just consider the Max Pack - a lot of people counted on Rivian shipping that *first*, because Tesla shipped the biggest batteries and most expensive configurations first. That didn't happen. I think there may be a small percentage of "new" orders filled quickly, but mainly as a side-effect of batching when Rivian makes excess vehicles in a certain configuration then tries to match those up with older orders, fails to find takers in the R1 Shop, etc.

 

[jebinc]

I think betting on Rivian to follow Tesla's lead in everything is a bad bet. Just consider the Max Pack - a lot of people counted on Rivian shipping that *first*, because Tesla shipped the biggest batteries and most expensive configurations first. That didn't happen. I think there may be a small percentage of "new" orders filled quickly, but mainly as a side-effect of batching when Rivian makes excess vehicles in a certain configuration then tries to match those up with older orders, fails to find takers in the R1 Shop, etc.

Could be, but the problem there is Rivian doesn’t know what configuration the new orders are, as it doesn’t ask for that information any more. Not sure when that changed, as I’m a noob here.

 

[JaMa]

I think betting on Rivian to follow Tesla's lead in everything is a bad bet. Just consider the Max Pack - a lot of people counted on Rivian shipping that *first*, because Tesla shipped the biggest batteries and most expensive configurations first. That didn't happen. I think there may be a small percentage of "new" orders filled quickly, but mainly as a side-effect of batching when Rivian makes excess vehicles in a certain configuration then tries to match those up with older orders, fails to find takers in the R1 Shop, etc.

So heres the thing - Rivian productized the Large pack first, making everything else they put forward as ambitions to produce exponentially more expensive. SO - we are seeing them produce the options and colors in batches that are *easiest and more profitable to produce* right now, and frankly will be into the near future. A lot of this mirrors the issues Tesla had during the production ramps of every single car they have ever produced. There is also an awful lot of similarity in the actual products. As time goes on, I find it humorous and expected that Rivian adds in features that Tesla already has and eventually catch up and gain parity. They are even trying to duplicate the Tesla Supercharger network as 'adventure network' or whatever its called - totally a copy.

Anyway - I think Rivian will figure this out, but its a question of whether or not they figure it out before they run out of cash. Its a great and unique product, clearly, but the process needs a lot of work. I would not be surprised if they end up acquired or in tight manufacturing partnership with someone to get past this. Great product, but manufacturing is Mt Everest - not something everyone can do.

Cheers
J

Sponsored