Reservations placed AFTER March 2022

[jebinc]

Hello all,

So much discussion on year’s past pre orders And so little on recent reservations placed; where you no longer can specify configuration information….

This thread aims to change that and allow for a discussion about recently placed reservations and experiences.

I’ll kick it off… placed a deposit on 10/3. EDD is “end of 2023”. I’m super close to the Bellevue, WA service center, so I’m hopeful to get the R1T earlier than current EDD. No guide or other contact, other than the standard “welcome to the family” emails.

What has your experience been like? As anyone ordered a R1T in 2022 and taken delivery already? Anyone invited into the R1 shop?

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[Mathme]

I reserved in mid-July with a H2 2023 delivery window (which works well for my personal situation). No real news other than a few random emails. I don't anticipate much activity until sometime in Q1 at the earliest.

 

[Guy]

I would expect late 2023 for you. They will have made around 20K R1s this year and next year a reasonable estimate is 50K. They had by March over 80K reservations so even with some drop outs they would only just clear those outstanding orders by end of 2023.

 

[RivianNowPlz]

I’m sorry - this isn’t to be off putting at all, but please don’t expect your Rivian in 2023. You’ll be disappointed; I think first quarter of 2024 is a good estimate for any recent preorder holders for the R1T as the R1S starts ramping up on the line. Rivian will ramp up, they are adding a 3rd shift but even with a decent attrition factored into the current state of preorders I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume they’ll get through 50k vehicles + Amazon orders in 2023.

I would love to be wrong.

 

[jebinc]

I’m sorry - this isn’t to be off putting at all, but please don’t expect your Rivian in 2023. You’ll be disappointed; I think first quarter of 2024 is a good estimate for any recent preorder holders for the R1T as the R1S starts ramping up on the line. Rivian will ramp up, they are adding a 3rd shift but even with a decent attrition factored into the current state of preorders I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume they’ll get through 50k vehicles + Amazon orders in 2023.

I would love to be wrong.

It seems like you believe this is “a place in line” only driven process (FIFO) and give zero weight to service center proximity. In my case, I’m 10 minutes away from the Bellevue, WA SC.

So, no one believes this has any role in Rivian‘s actual delivery date? Same for price paid… does no one believe Rivian is prioritizing newer higher margin orders over much less profitable pre orders???

 

[Guy]

It seems like you believe this is “a place in line” only driven process (FIFO) and give zero weight to service center proximity. In my case, I’m 10 minutes away from the Bellevue, WA SC.

So, no one believes this has any role in Rivian‘s actual delivery date? Same for price paid… does no one believe Rivian is prioritizing newer higher margin orders over much less profitable pre orders???

Location does matter but it isn’t going to jump you over 40,000 people however much you wish it would. As for price paid it makes sense to get through all pre March sales as soon as possible. Leaving the cheaper fixed price reservations to 2024 or even 2025 just increases the loss they will incur. The markets are not so bothered about profit/loss in 2023 but they will be more focused on that in 2024 so best for Rivian to clear out the cheaper price reservations ASAP.

 

[jebinc]

Location does matter but it isn’t going to jump you over 40,000 people however much you wish it would. As for price paid it makes sense to get through all pre March sales as soon as possible. Leaving the cheaper fixed price reservations to 2024 or even 2025 just increases the loss they will incur. The markets are not so bothered about profit/loss in 2023 but they will be more focused on that in 2024 so best for Rivian to clear out the cheaper price reservations ASAP.

Thanks for your opinion. I have read other articles which have the opposite opinion. What this thread is for is actual experiences from actual post June 2022 orderers. Did you order after June 2022, or are you a multi- year pre-ordered still waiting? Or, something other? Trying to figure out what is shaping your opinion.

 

[RivianNowPlz]

Thanks for your opinion. I have read other articles which have the opposite opinion. What this thread is for is actual experiences from actual post June 2022 orderers. Did you order after June 2022, or are you a multi- year pre-ordered still waiting? Or, something other? Trying to figure out what is shaping your opinion.

lol. The opinions of any post-June 22 preorder holder is just that of a dreamer. Keep dreaming bud.

 

[jebinc]

lol. The opinions of any post-June 22 preorder holder is just that of a dreamer. Keep dreaming bud.

Hey, that’s helpful input! Must come from a long waiting low price pre order, orderer. Maybe even a disgruntled one!

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/rivian-r1s-r1t-delivery-dates-how-soon-can-you-get-a-rivian/

 

[mount_finkus]

Hey, that’s helpful input! Must come from a long waiting low price pre order, orderer. Maybe even a disgruntled one!

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/rivian-r1s-r1t-delivery-dates-how-soon-can-you-get-a-rivian/

I’m not giving any opinion on delivery dates for any orders placed.

The linked article here has 0 sources and was posted in spring of this year.

 

[Guy]

Thanks for your opinion. I have read other articles which have the opposite opinion. What this thread is for is actual experiences from actual post June 2022 orderers. Did you order after June 2022, or are you a multi- year pre-ordered still waiting? Or, something other? Trying to figure out what is shaping your opinion.

I ordered October 2021, so not as long as some. I am in SE PA, so 2-2.5 hours from NYC Brooklyn SC and about the same from the proposed Gaithersburg MD SC. R1Ts have already been delivered to this area and that makes sense given the population in the area. If they restricted sales to customers say an hour from an SC they would, with the current lack of SCs, be limiting themselves greatly.
So I agree location has some bearing but the price piece doesn't`t because it will hit them later on when Wall St is more focussed on money. Wall Street is currently focussed on production numbers. It will be interesting to see what guidance Rivian gives at their Q3 results call in November for 2023 production numbers - there will be questions on that and Q1 2023 is not far away. Anyway good luck with you wait but late 2023 seems the best you can hope for currently unless you get lucky or start a YT channel!

 

[jebinc]

I ordered October 2021, so not as long as some. I am in SE PA, so 2-2.5 hours from NYC Brooklyn SC and about the same from the proposed Gaithersburg MD SC. R1Ts have already been delivered to this area and that makes sense given the population in the area. If they restricted sales to customers say an hour from an SC they would, with the current lack of SCs, be limiting themselves greatly.
So I agree location has some bearing but the price piece doesn't`t because it will hit them later on when Wall St is more focussed on money. Wall Street is currently focussed on production numbers. It will be interesting to see what guidance Rivian gives at their Q3 results call in November for 2023 production numbers - there will be questions on that and Q1 2023 is not far away. Anyway good luck with you wait but late 2023 seems the best you can hope for currently unless you get lucky or start a YT channel!

Thanks for the reply! My only hope for an earlier than 15 month delay, is a faster successful production ramp up at Rivian, increased cancellations if Tesla starts taking Cybertruck reservation holder configuration and actual “order” information, or I hit the R1 Shop lottery because I’m so close to the SC. CS did note on my profile my super close proximity to Bellevue SC and willingness to consider a wide range of configurations. Time will tell. I did reserve a Cybertruck on launch day, back in 11/19, so it will be interesting to see who can deliver me a truck first. “Early bird” will get the worm (my money).

 

[mkg3]

It seems like you believe this is “a place in line” only driven process (FIFO) and give zero weight to service center proximity. In my case, I’m 10 minutes away from the Bellevue, WA SC.

So, no one believes this has any role in Rivian‘s actual delivery date? Same for price paid… does no one believe Rivian is prioritizing newer higher margin orders over much less profitable pre orders???

Sounds like you're trolling a bit...

If not, and Rivian told you 2H2023, then that's the best data point you have.

If you get a windfall and get it sooner, good for you. There is a very likelihood that you will be correct in your optimism as orders drop out, people buy alternative, other preorders come in first and so on.

Those very pessimistic delivery scenario people simply have been disappointed by Rivian's performance to date and have lowered their expectations significantly. I get it. I also understand manufacturing and scaling up so I have a different view than most. My biggest concern with Rivian is quality of build at this point and not units. Correcting QC issue only gets harder with more quantity/day.

The reason for this forum being pre March order centric is because that's the vast majority of the population of the participants. perhaps @Administrator can create post price-hike/no config section on the forum? Personally, I do believe its a good strategy that Rivian is using given the uncertainties with suppliers and changes to the vehicles as a result.

 

[jebinc]

Sounds like you're trolling a bit...

If not, and Rivian told you 2H2023, then that's the best data point you have.

If you get a windfall and get it sooner, good for you. There is a very likelihood that you will be correct in your optimism as orders drop out, people buy alternative, other preorders come in first and so on.

Those very pessimistic delivery scenario people simply have been disappointed by Rivian's performance to date and have lowered their expectations significantly. I get it. I also understand manufacturing and scaling up so I have a different view than most. My biggest concern with Rivian is quality of build at this point and not units. Correcting QC issue only gets harder with more quantity/day.

The reason for this forum being pre March order centric is because that's the vast majority of the population of the participants. perhaps @Administrator can create post price-hike/no config section on the forum? Personally, I do believe its a good strategy that Rivian is using given the uncertainties with suppliers and changes to the vehicles as a result.

Great suggestion for the admins.

Not trolling as I’ve have many Tesla experiences that have been good, bad and ugly. Build quality on my MS Plaid is abysmal and it vibrates like a MoFo, due to poor half shaft designs. It seems like the R1T has its own half shaft clunking issues/design flaws as well.

Anyway, still looking to hear from members that have reserved more recently, if any even exist on this forum.

 

[JaMa]

I have 2 active orders: one from last year and one from January. NEITHER of them has an estimated delivery date, I have NEVER heard from a guide, and I live less than 15 minutes from the new Austin, TX service and delivery center. As much as I would love to tell you this is realistic, I think maybe not. You are going to get your truck in *maybe 2024* first half IMHO if you are lucky. Rivian is saying they might produce the forecasted goal of 25k overall VINs this year, but if you really look into it with their current production rate, the recall they just issued, the Amazon production left to produce and all of the other factors including battery supply, I think 2H23 is just too optimistic given your place in line. They are also struggling with their new factory in GA which was supposed to pad production starting in 2024, so just not much great news on the horizon for this company.

I have heard some people say that the higher priced reservations are being given priority, but In my opinion this would be a bad business move. You want to get your older cheaper (and more pissed off) backlog of customers fulfilled and out the door so you can start more accurate financial forecasting and planning. It is true that some orders will cancel and there will be some natural attrition, but in general it will not be a large percentage.

My 2c,
J

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