Rival Tesla Model X to end production

[BigSkies]

Less options for EVs in the US is not a good thing, so sad to see this. I supposed Lucid may benefit from cross shoppers of the S?

As for robots in manufacturing- Its more cost effective to design the process to be fully automated than it would be to just "simply" drop in a humanoid robot in an established manufacturing line and try to get it to do what a human does.
I'd 100% take specialized automation hardware over humanoid if i wanted to keep a manufacturing floor running 24/7 without humans.

A big part of the S/X sales decline in the US over the last few years was the availability of both Rivian and Lucid. Not only did both companies create compelling alternatives, Tesla raised prices and failed to provide meaningful updates to the platform. The whole nazi thing didn't help their brand image either (to put it mildly). The value proposition just isn't there while compelling alternatives now exist.

Maybe Lucid and Rivian see minor bumps in sales because of this, but the Model S/X sales were already low enough that I don't think it will be major.

It will be interesting to see how Model 3/Y sales hold up once Rivian and Lucid scale meaningful alternatives. Tesla has the means to continue doing incredibly well with the 3/Y platform, but it would require a level of investment and price adjustments they don't seem interested in.

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[Yossarian]

It makes total sense for Tesla to stop production of these vehicles as they haven't been significantly changed in years, and the competition is just too intense for this type of stagnation. With sales dropping globally for the brand they need to sure up as much profits as possible. I don't see a strong vehicle production future for them as the Model 3 and Y will continue to see sales decline and competition increase.

Personally I am thrilled to watch Musk struggle but I feel bad for the employees that will be impacted.

I think you are on to something in speculating that Tesla is quietly exiting the auto business.

In 2006, Tesla released its initial "Master Plan" outlining the company's mission and its vision moving forward. That was followed by "Master Plan Part Deux" in 2016 that among other things, stated the Tesla vision for a new kind of pickup. That plan also indicated that the company believed in a future with autonomous vehicles. The 2023 master plan was 41 pages long and provided a great deal of detail about Tesla's vision of autonomous vehicles even speculating that Tesla owners would be able to generate income from their cars by turning them into automated taxis when not needed for personal transportation. It was clear even then that Tesla believed in a future of autonomous vehicles.

In September of last year, Tesla released “Master Plan IV,” which at only about 1,000 words, is less a plan than a statement. An article in The Atlantic, called the plan "a technocratic fever dream" that made little mention of cars and to the extent that it did, it was in the "context of robotaxis, or the batteries that power them." The article concluded that "In other words, Tesla, the biggest EV company in the country, wants out of the car business."

The incentives in Elon's trillion-dollar pay package essentially ensure that's the case.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Less options for EVs in the US is not a good thing, so sad to see this. I supposed Lucid may benefit from cross shoppers of the S?

As for robots in manufacturing- Its more cost effective to design the process to be fully automated than it would be to just "simply" drop in a humanoid robot in an established manufacturing line and try to get it to do what a human does.
I'd 100% take specialized automation hardware over humanoid if i wanted to keep a manufacturing floor running 24/7 without humans.

For manufacturing, you are correct, but for areas like retail, an Optimus-type thing would be the way to replace humans. The problem is that this would also require an AGI to run the robots, and right now, AI isn't anywhere near good enough to replace even the most menial humans. Look at the Elon video of Optimus trying to find the kitchen to see how bad it is. It's closer to a Furby than a personal replacement.

 

[2kwik4u]

Tesla just announced on a Q4 earnings call that they are ending production of the Model X and S, effective next quarter (Q2 2026).

“It's time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge. We're moving into a future that is based on autonomy. We're going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont Factory, and convert that into an Optimus factory with the long-term goal of 1M/year. It's part of our overall shift to an autonomous future.”

Another tech company that started in cars, moving away from vehicles and into more tech.

We're going to be left with nothing but legacy automakers making EV's here soon. Honestly Xiaomi is looking stronger and stronger, as they're a tech manufacturer that has diversified into the automaker space.

Sure hope R2 does well, and Rivian gets their head out of their butt and spins off the Autonomy division ala eBike and robotics startups, so they can renew focus on building cars.

 

[2kwik4u]

It's closer to a Furby than a personal replacement.

I might've gonna go with Tamagochi instead of Furby there, but I'm with ya.

With that said, I did have my drinks delivered to me at a restaurant last night, by a robot. Cute little yellow thing that essentially amounted to a couple of shelves on some wheels with a set of "eyes" displayed on the screen. Kind of neat that the bartended didn't have wait for the waitress to bring us our drinks. Just filled the order and sent the nice mobile shelf over to us. I saw a robotic arm make drinks in Vegas a few years ago. Combine those two, along with the sushi on a conveyor and the ipad to order at the table and we would barely have any human interaction in our meal.

Weird world we live in.

 

[Zoidz]

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what Elon actually did for EVs. The ideas behind Tesla's vehicles were already there. Other people already had the plan, and all of Elon's additions to the lines have been problematic. What Elon does well is corporate organization. He took an ineffective entity and streamlined it to the point it could grow and make money. That's absolutely a skill, and it was an important part of Tesla's story.

However, Elon is NOT a founder in the way he proclaimed. If you want to see what a vehicle looks like that Elon is majorly responsible for, look at the CT. That monstrosity is an abysmal failure, and Tesla is hemorrhaging money because it designed a line with 250K capacity and demand of 20K, which declines year over year. The Cybertruck is not useful enough as a truck and will never be financially successful.

Elon believed his own press about being a genius innovator and stopped listening to the talent. His strength was in knowing how to utilize smart people and provide them with an environment to create innovative products. Elon stopped doing that and instead replaced the talent with his ideas. This is resulting in Tesla's decisions going downhill.

I don't disagree with any of this. But what IS different is that there are more and smarter people working on the Optimus project. What I'm saying is that if Tesla and Musk as an organization has learned from their past and leverages that expertise with Optimus, it's a mistake to count them down and out.

 

[Zoidz]

Robots for mundane manufacturing tasks at competitive prices have been around for a very long time. I'm struggling to understand the appeal of an overly complex robot in a humanoid form with over 100 degrees of freedom when a far simpler and less expensive alternative exists????

If you have mundane tasks in a factory you want a robot you set up once and then let it work for months or years. Why does it need to walk around???????? If you do need to move parts in a factory you use a conveyer belt or trolly that can move 1000's of parts per minute. Not an expensive 100 degree of freedom slow walking humanoid carrying a couple parts..

I've spent most of my engineering career working in various aspects of factory automation for numerous small and over a dozen Fortune 100 companies. These factories were built years ago for humans to stand or sit doing mundane, repetitive tasks, many times in tight quarters. The work cells are designed for bipeds. No room for the 6,7,8 axis FANUC arms that we have installed for years, with the requisite safey cages, light curtains, etc.

Just one example of many - In a particular industry we work in, product samples must be extracted on a hourly basis and taken to the lab (300 yards from the production area) for rapid QC analysis before the product can be packaged. It's easy to automate the extraction using an automatic sample bagger. But that sample has to get to the lab. A person is dedicated to walking around all day pulling the little bags off of the sampler and taking the samples to the lab. In this existing factory, there is no practical way to collect and transport these samples via conveyor. It's layout prevents anything but a biped to access the sample location. This would be a simple project for a suitably sophisticated biped robot.

Similar things happen in thousands of factories all the time around the world. I recall years ago that people scoffed at a factory ever needing a 6 axis robtic arm. Biped robots in manufacturing are happening - whether you see the value or not. And it will trickle down from the megacorporations to your hometown factory, eventually.

 

[Gigabit]

If I had to guess it seems robots are going to be the whole self driving promise cycle all over again. Waiting to hear Elon will sell us a robot to go to work for us while we sleep, the ultimate infinite money glitch.

 

[Zoidz]

A good use case for Optimus would be farming. Unfortunately, farmers wouldn't have the money to purchase expensive robots to do the back breaking parts. Specially since the primary source of workers are migrants.

Ever hear of ADM - Arthur Daniels Midland Corporation? Over $30B market capitalization. They are just one of the coporate farming entities capable of funding such applications. Companies like this own the farm, or they work with contract growers to improve productivity and crop quality. Farmers do not necessarily purchase/own expensive farm equipment - it can be provided to them as part of a contract. One common example is certain types of packaging equipment. If the manufacturer contracts to buy XXX Million cartons over a contract period, the cartoning machine is "free". Of course, it's built into the cost of each carton, but it eliminates the capital investment for the manufacturer.

 

[Budman]

with the requisite safey cages, light curtains, etc.

Hmm. Safety cages. Never thought of that. Why would humanoids not need them when all other robots do???

 

[Dark-Fx]

Hmm. Safety cages. Never thought of that. Why would humanoids not need them when all other robots do???

Not all robots need safety cages. And some humans need safety cages.

 

[Time2Roll]

I don't disagree with any of this. But what IS different is that there are more and smarter people working on the Optimus project. What I'm saying is that if Tesla and Musk as an organization has learned from their past and leverages that expertise with Optimus, it's a mistake to count them down and out.

With the most recent leverage of expertise producing the Cyber Truck I have strong doubts with Optimus.

 

[Zoidz]

Hmm. Safety cages. Never thought of that. Why would humanoids not need them when all other robots do???

There are many nuances, but in general there are OSHA Safety guidelines that pre-date robotic arms regarding machines that can "cause serious injury or death" needing safety barriers. The industry has generally decided to date to take the conservative approach, which is that a robotic arm can start or move unpredicatably and could trap, injure or kill someone due to the speed and/or amount of force. If you look closely at any robotic assembly line, you will not see humans in the zone and somewhere in the background you will see a cage, or perhaps not see the light curtain because it is light.

Biped robots are being designed with human safety in mind via various sensors, not unlike our Rivians. They are much less powerful and typically have force feedback and can be programmed appropriately. Such as, if it senses force on an arm or an object in the way when it is not executing a task expectibf that force or an object, it will shut down immediately. So in a sense, it has a "virtual safety cage" around it via a set of sensors. I think the biggest risk to humans wiht biped robots will be them losing their balance and falling on someone. Human nature illustrated this in a video where a human instinctively reached out to steady a biped that was falling. No need to save the robot, but the human aid instinct took over.

There is a video online of Musk with an Optimus, and the Optimus refuses to walk when commanded. Musk and his companion were too close, so the robot would not start walking.

 

[savethemanual]

Another tech company that started in cars, moving away from vehicles and into more tech.

We're going to be left with nothing but legacy automakers making EV's here soon. Honestly Xiaomi is looking stronger and stronger, as they're a tech manufacturer that has diversified into the automaker space.

Sure hope R2 does well, and Rivian gets their head out of their butt and spins off the Autonomy division ala eBike and robotics startups, so they can renew focus on building cars.

RJ is a car guy at heart, I don't ever see that changing. Yes, Rivian will diverge into other areas, but vehicles are his passion, no doubt.

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