Rivian Q3 - expectations

[Carscott]

So I can see in Canada most Gen1 vehicles with discounts have been cleared out. I have seen similar statements on this forum regarding Normal.

As a result I think we can expect some great delivery numbers. However this will be the quarter with the maximum loss per vehicle! So I’m thinking that the stock should fall but it will also show that demand is strong.

What do people think?

Chris.

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[jjswan33]

I think it's going to be an excellent buying opportunity for Rivian's stock given current market conditions. I wouldn't expect a blowout, I'd expect market disappointment but all eyes on the critical Q4 for Rivian.

 

[Carscott]

When is the Scout reveal? I suspect that is going to be the trick announcement to generate positive moves for the stock.

 

[mkg3]

I believe 3Q deliveries will be sequentially lower than 2Q. Interest rate remain high and economy in general is slowing and creating uncertainties amongst consumers.

While loss/vehicle improved in 2Q, probably will see increased loss as the deliveries will be less and with more incentives. Keep in mind that, in the most simplistic terms, the loss/vehicle is actually an representation of factory utilization (both fixed and variable costs) offset by sales so if Rivian produced the same number of units with lower sales, then loss/vehicle will go up.

The thing that will move the stock positive or negatively is no so much of loss/vehicle at this point. It's the forecast and the status of R2. If R2 is moving along and if they can provide definitive delivery window for R2, then there will be a spike in price. If no words or worse, slowdown in R2, there will be a huge hit in the negative direction.

Last, an update on VW JV will be a key item and also can swing the stock price.

 

[rivibaset]

"Deliveries in Q3 will be less than in Q2."

This word got the whole thing twisted.

They said that 2Q deliveries are less than 1Q (10~15%).

But the results were almost the same.

If they really expect a fourth-quarter turnaround

There can never be a number worse than 2Q.

 

[DuoRivian]

Q3 will show delivery growth but I have been surprised that some 2023 R1S vehicles are still available for sale. These vehicles are nine plus months old and should have been sold months ago. That does point to a demand issue and the idea that 85k R1s could be produced AND sold is unrealistic. Thankfully R2 can take the large majority of Normal’s production in two years time.
Q3 will financially be a mixed bag as you will have a lot of voucher holders finally committing and cheap leasing deals which thankfully go away for Q4.

 

[Rjalbright3]

Voucher sales will push numbers for Q3 above expectations

 

[ToughMudderGirl]

My hope is that Rivian will have financing offers akin to other manufacturers to sweeten things up and boost sales quickly, eg 1.9-2.9% APRs for preferred borrowers or 3.9-5% for others…It’s a high quality product so no need to discount the sale prices just yet…

 

[godfodder0901]

My hope is that Rivian will have financing offers akin to other manufacturers to sweeten things up and boost sales quickly, eg 1.9-2.9% APRs for preferred borrowers or 3.9-5% for others…It’s a high quality product so no need to discount the sale prices just yet…

You mean like this?

 

[rivibaset]

I'm confused.
What do you think?

 

[BlueMars]

"Deliveries in Q3 will be less than in Q2."

This word got the whole thing twisted.

They said that 2Q deliveries are less than 1Q (10~15%).

But the results were almost the same.

If they really expect a fourth-quarter turnaround

There can never be a number worse than 2Q.

Yes this is the registration data of RIVIAN US from MarkLines. So far it looked better than Q2.

	4​	5​	6​	7​	8​	9​	10​	11​	12​
2024​	3939​	3620​	4826​	3994​	5007​
2023​	4186​	4214​	4242​	4346​	4600​

 

[savethemanual]

My speculation is stock will go sideways with a few ups and downs until R2...then it's make or break time!

 

[AllInev]

When is the Scout reveal? I suspect that is going to be the trick announcement to generate positive moves for the stock.

Announcement coming 10.24.2024: https://scoutmotors.com/

 

[NY_Rob]

Hopefully Scout > Fisker

 

[SANZC02]

From an article on Rivian Tracker, based on this they sold 15,232 for the quarter.

“The numbers are out and Rivian managed to sell 5,195 vehicles in September 2024.

For August 2024, Rivian sold 5,133 vehicles and in July 2024 Rivian sold 4,904 vehicles according to Motor Intelligence. To date, Rivian has sold 42,610 vehicles.”

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