RIVIAN STOCK

[Michaewh]

FWIW, the Morgan Stanley account set up for the IPO, is limited purpose. I had previously sold all of my shares and was ready to buy some back (in that same account). No can do. Just need to move funds around and try again next week...

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[Keith_Been_Waiting]

We should remember that we kind of live in a bubble here (ie. people that are on a Rivian Forum) - the vast majority of people have no idea what Rivian is.

Disclaimer - Not an expert, might not know what I'm talking about!

Very key points, that vast majority of every day people do not know about Rivian.

But I do think you know what you're talking about. That is a key insight.

 

[Chris S]

Of course it will rebound. For all those that stupidly sold their stock yesterday, you still have time to get back in before it rebounds, but not very much time at all. News travels fast.

Here we are 8 days later, and the stock has since lost an additional 25% of its value. Be careful who you call stupid! ?

 

[Chris S]

I still can't believe people sold their stock at a loss so quickly. I understand the frustration and the cancellation of pre-orders (and thank those who did because it made a difference) but the stock is a long term play and it should bounce back.

I'd recommend you learn about sunk costs as they pertain to investment decisions. Your cost basis (or gain/loss position) is irrelevant to intelligent investment decision making except as it pertains to tax ramifications.

The key question you should ask yourself is what's the best use of the $ value of your position today.

RIVN may be a good long-term investment, but I expect it will continue to face a lot of headwinds this year. I passed on the IPO and I'm not interested in it now either. Maybe when they start producing some results.

 

[White Shadow]

Here we are 8 days later, and the stock has since lost an additional 25% of its value. Be careful who you call stupid! ?

Depends where people got in. Could have still been a bad move. But selling for a loss is still a loss. Just because the stock drops lower means absolutely nothing after someone already sold for a loss. You'd have to buy in again at the bottom and wait for it to go up again. Look at the guys who said they were waiting for $50. Terrific, but maybe they should have waited for $35. Or maybe even $25.

I still think it's stupid to sell at a loss no matter what. Personally, I keep buying as the stock price drops, that way my average price paid also keeps getting lower and lower.

 

[LeoH]

Depends where people got in. Could have still been a bad move. But selling for a loss is still a loss. Just because the stock drops lower means absolutely nothing after someone already sold for a loss. You'd have to buy in again at the bottom and wait for it to go up again. Look at the guys who said they were waiting for $50. Terrific, but maybe they should have waited for $35. Or maybe even $25.

I still think it's stupid to sell at a loss no matter what. Personally, I keep buying as the stock price drops, that way my average price paid also keeps getting lower and lower.

I guess it depends on the amount. If someone put in 100K, and now is pulling 50K loss, maybe its because they have some other investment that get them returns faster. I wouldn't say stupid as a blanket statement.


for me, I am trying to get my cost per share to about $60. I just figured if I am getting a 95K car for $78, that's about 17K I am willing to put in their stock.

 

[moosehead]

^I keep averaging down as well, problem is my average entry is still well above current. The smugness I had at buying below IPO feels a bit stupid.

Meanwhile, one of three events typically preceed a recession: Fed tightening, commodity price increases, and inverted yield curve. Add global conflict. We now have all four.

 

[MacO512]

Depends where people got in. Could have still been a bad move. But selling for a loss is still a loss. Just because the stock drops lower means absolutely nothing after someone already sold for a loss. You'd have to buy in again at the bottom and wait for it to go up again. Look at the guys who said they were waiting for $50. Terrific, but maybe they should have waited for $35. Or maybe even $25.

I still think it's stupid to sell at a loss no matter what. Personally, I keep buying as the stock price drops, that way my average price paid also keeps getting lower and lower.

So if a company eventually heads to bankruptcy you'll keep buying the stock as it goes down until your broke too?

 

[Trekkie]

throw money at it now, be happy in five years. just look at Tesla, hit a low of $35 six years ago (2016). We had articles like this: https://investorplace.com/2016/01/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-stock-price-2016/ saying everyone is gonna be sad and it's end of the world.

people who bought in then, bought Model S Plaids with the proceeds of their stock sales.

It's 2022...stock has split, and is at $900 or so, sure it's swinging around a bit, but that's a bit of a climb is it not? $35 to $1800 roughly in six years?

The only time to make money quick on Rivian was the week of the IPO, anything else is a long haul. I'm hoping it'll stay in the 30s until my yearly bonus comes in next week, then I can stock up pun intended.

could I regret it? sure. however I'm not seeing anything that indicates it won't be better in a few years. There will be more trucks on the market, yes. however Rivian has a niche spot at the moment for the next few years. It's all a matter of if/when they can deliver and if the world is on fire in the next five years thanks to Russia having a manhood measuring contest. If that happens, I probably won't care as much about a stock loss.

 

[NashvilleR1S]

I've got my cost basis down to $63...but I can't justify putting more into it now. Now we wait.

 

[White Shadow]

So if a company eventually heads to bankruptcy you'll keep buying the stock as it goes down until your broke too?

No, obviously bankruptcy is a problem. I've never once had stock in a company that declared bankruptcy, so I'm not sure what to tell you about that. Do you think Rivian is headed towards bankruptcy? I don't. If anything, I think an acquisition is far more likely than bankruptcy.

 

[Max]

just look at Tesla,

That May be setting yourself up for disappointment. Tesla was a first mover being subsidized by government programs. Even with all of that, it’s likelihood of failing was just as great as succeeding. Rivian May be close to a first mover in BEV truck market by a small margin and operate in less risky EV environment but with it’s production speed, increasing operating cost (look at all the hiring), in a few years when free pass for being new is gone, it’s profitability will be compared to other companies who have been making EVs for a while. If you look at car maker’s market cap, Tesla is an outlier. As much as I like Rivian and believe consumers liking the product and the company can result in unreasonable valuation, Tesla kinda returns is unlikely.

 

[Keith_Been_Waiting]

If anything, I think an acquisition is far more likely than bankruptcy.

I'll second that, based on current trend and global affairs, that could very well end up happening. But that is an educated prediction, based on what we know today. Things could be different later.

Regarding Tesla, adding to what Max said, Tesla has a CEO with a historical track record. Zip2 in 1995, Paypal in 1999, SpaceX in 2002 and finally Tesla in 2003... and then recently Neuralink and "The Boring Company" in 2016. So there is a lot more going on for Tesla and hence its current evaluation and shareholder sentiment.

In any case, not to say Rivian isn't doing great things but they are not a very direct comparison as far as Shareholder and market sentiment goes. Institutional investors like to see track record as well.

 

[Keith_Been_Waiting]

$35 and declining. Will probably settle soon and rumors will subside.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/14/why-rivian-stock-dropped-again-today/

 

[HJP1]

If you are a trader the sentiment right now is very bearish. If you are a long term investor I would start buying or add to positions. If the product is as good as the reviews the company will flourish and once production ramps up the stock will follow. Also once some sort of enhanced EV incentives are passed as were in the BBB bill that will also increase demand as will continued high gas prices.

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