RIVIAN STOCK

[junkanoo]

Rivian needs to get as many cars out there as fast as they can. The more legitimate of a company they are the more bargaining power they will have with suppliers and with potential business partners that may be another source of income. Who knows, they already may be getting a cut for every 21" Pirelli sold. If they do, those incomes may start to roll in after a few years.

OTA allowed Rivian to release R1T and R1S before they are ready and collect info. Facebook is a crappy products no one likes but everyone uses. It is all about numbers. Once you get the numbers, profitability will come. That is why RJ went back to original pricing. Once they flood the roads with Rivians, they can charge a big business to put their app on your screen or a restaurant to pop up their add when you get close or a whole lot of other things they can't think of right now but will be able to take advantage of using OTA. They can sell the product (which is often us) much better down the road using adjustments to the software even if they may lack the foresight to know how today. At this point all they need to concentrate on is getting R1s out and make sure they run. This is a long game.

Flooding the market? Ford will have more F-150 Lightnings on the road next month than all the R1Ts in existence. IF Rivian can produce 50,000 R1S/R1T in 2023, that to me would be a HUGE win. But, if that's 35,000 R1Ts for the year that might be one month's production in Ford Lightnings. Meanwhile, Tesla will be making close to 350,000 for the U.S. market, just of their Model 3 next year.

The very next moment that Rivian allows paid advertisements on your vehicle's screen it will be a race between whether a lawyer with a class-action lawsuit or 6 state attorney generals that file a lawsuit first. This ain't a Facebook app ... this is a 7,000-pound potentially deadly vehicle. C'est la difference.

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[Rivian_Hugh_III]

I'm not sure how anyone could have good estimates on the profit margin of Rivian's trucks when they're bleeding money.

While the auto business is absolutely moving to OTA updates ... I am skeptical that they will ever be able to monetize those updates. If Apple can't do it how the heck would Rivian be able to? Meanwhile, those updates make for a lot of happy campers getting their Apple Watch and iPhone updates along with small incremental improvements that come along with it. That allows Apple to keep customers (including me) in their ecosystem, providing them a huge market advantage. Rivian has no chance of that same benefit.

I do agree that Rivian needs to remain in the higher end of the car business. However, Rivian (at least outwardly) is still drinking the lemonade that producing cheaper cars will allow them to get to some great mass-production level and the potential to take on anyone in the industry. Those odds are far greater than Rich Strike winning the Derby - but not impossible.

Apple charged for updates for many years. In the end it was better monetarily for them to give them away for free. It ensured everyone was on the same operating system, which was better for developers and consumers. The better experience magnified the lock-in.

It all depends on your business model. If Rivian can sell more cars by making updates free they will. If they make more money in the end by charging they will.

I think the jury is still out on how people will make the most money off EV’s.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Flooding the market? Ford will have more F-150 Lightnings on the road next month than all the R1Ts in existence. IF Rivian can produce 50,000 R1S/R1T in 2023, that to me would be a HUGE win. But, if that's 35,000 R1Ts for the year that might be one month's production in Ford Lightnings. Meanwhile, Tesla will be making close to 350,000 for the U.S. market, just of their Model 3 next year.

Are you seriously suggesting that Ford will be able to produce approximately 400,000 F150 Lightning trucks a year in the near future (before 2025)?

 

[DJG]

Flooding the market? Ford will have more F-150 Lightnings on the road next month than all the R1Ts in existence. IF Rivian can produce 50,000 R1S/R1T in 2023, that to me would be a HUGE win. But, if that's 35,000 R1Ts for the year that might be one month's production in Ford Lightnings.

You must know more than Ford's CEO, who has recently said that they hope to be running at an annual rate of 150,000 Lightning's per year by the end of 2023.

 

[Max]

Flooding the market? Ford will have more F-150 Lightnings on the road next month than all the R1Ts in existence. IF Rivian can produce 50,000 R1S/R1T in 2023, that to me would be a HUGE win. But, if that's 35,000 R1Ts for the year that might be one month's production in Ford Lightnings. Meanwhile, Tesla will be making close to 350,000 for the U.S. market, just of their Model 3 next year.

The very next moment that Rivian allows paid advertisements on your vehicle's screen it will be a race between whether a lawyer with a class-action lawsuit or 6 state attorney generals that file a lawsuit first. This ain't a Facebook app ... this is a 7,000-pound potentially deadly vehicle. C'est la difference.

You are either missing my point or have a different one to make. It is not about Rivian selling more than Ford, it is about selling enough to survive.

It is not about using my ideas (although I don't see how a navigation lady telling you a restaurant coming up will get the lawyers involved), it is about using any idea that works to monetize something other than the sale of the vehicle. They already have their annual service, and the Gear Shop. They have stated that already as a part of their business strategy that they will have other sources of income. I am sure they have lawyers to tell them which idea will be OK.

I am not sure which point you disagree with:

1 - Rivian should sell more cars than they already do?
2 - OTA will have the potential for Rivian to make money from something other than sale of the vehicle.

 

[lostpacket]

Somewhat relevant are polestar's numbers
https://insideevs.com/news/560140/polestar-sales-2021/

Polestar 2 entered series production in China in March 2020, and the first cars arrived in Europe in mid-2020.

• 2021: 29,000 (up 185% year-over-year)
• 2020: about 10,175.
• Total: roughly 39,000.

 

[Lil'O Annie]

Hummm...sure hope Rivian doesn't start deliveries this way, considering how the stock has crashed.

?

This is what I call "shit for brains!!"

 

[NY_Rob]

^ ... then what would you call this????

 

[Lil'O Annie]

^ ... then what would you call this????

? Same thing!! ?

 

[Ladiver]

A crashing stock will not significantly impact Rivian in the short term. They already got their Billions. It is the investors that are losing money. The potential is if the stock drops much further, there could be a buyout. If that happens, then anything is possible. Rivian has enough cash to survive a few more years.

Imagine how great the R1 could be if the software was truly open source? I would guess that right-to-repair laws would come into play if Rivian were to fail.

 

[Max]

A crashing stock will not significantly impact Rivian in the short term. They already got their Billions. It is the investors that are losing money. The potential is if the stock drops much further, there could be a buyout. If that happens, then anything is possible. Rivian has enough cash to survive a few more years.

Imagine how great the R1 could be if the software was truly open source? I would guess that right-to-repair laws would come into play if Rivian were to fail.

If R1 is going to compete with Jeep and Tacoma, the community should be able to do repair and modifications, except for an EV, half of that will be in the code.

 

[zigzagzap]

You must know more than Ford's CEO, who has recently said that they hope to be running at an annual rate of 150,000 Lightning's per year by the end of 2023.

According to CNBC, “puts” on Rivian outnumber buys 2:1 and will keep driving the price lower. Not nice for Ford to now sell its 8M shares. I am not sure at what point they will become a take over target.

 

[thedole]

Low and falling share price can create many problems if it persists. RJ needs to start being a more vocal cheerleader.

 

[Max]

Defense contractors may be doing better than EV manufacturers in coming years. China is warming up for invasion now.

 

[dfx]

BUY RIVN tomorrow. The quarterly report should be disappointing this afternoon after the close. This will be a good opportunity to buy the shares. I have bought some today and will buy more tomorrow. Why? Because unlike the other startups RIVN is sitting on $17bil in cash against only $1.5 bil in debt. They'll burn about $1bil per quarter as they ramp up production but you're buying a potential growth opportunity for a little more than the cash on the balance sheet. I sold my shares shortly after the IPO and have not touched it since. I can't believe that the shares got down here. As overvalued the company was at over $100 per share it is undervalued now.
The stock may struggle for a while but I know that a buzz around the company will start to grow as more of these vehicles get out on the streets. It's not for the faint of heart but if anyone has been considering buying RIVN I'd suggest to use this break as an entry point

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