RJ: R2 conversion rate is "much higher" than internal expectations

[Eric9610]

I am not sure why everyone thinks prices will go up with RAP1 + Lidar. I am sure that is already factored in to their pricing. I have seen RJ mention in multiple interviews the cost for lidar is low $100s. And with regards to RAP1 they are creating the hardware for many reasons but one is probably to reduce cost over the current 3rd party computers. Nvidia chips are not cheap with demand so high, they are most likely breaking even or saving money by creating their own computers. So it's crazy to think the price is going to immediately go up by thousands of dollars. Especially since pricing has already been announced for premium and standard trims all of which will contain the new hardware.

Not talking about hardware. I am referring to the A+ subscription or one time purchase.

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[forestwalker]

A screenshot from my own Model S order:

Also see https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/958/tesla-fsd-price-increase-history:

Before 2019 FSD was an add-on that required also buying Enhanced Autopilot. Enhanced Autopilot cost $5,000 and FSD was a $3,000 option on top of that if ordered with the vehicle. If you ordered FSD after taking delivery then it cost $4,000, which later went up to $5,000.​

oof.

 

[Kaiju]

Skepticism from potentially biased sources aside, EV sales in general have been up because of oil prices and with the reviews by and large being positive it's no real surprise people are choosing to take what's being offered rather than wait a year or more.

The launch edition is a solid deal, especially for people who don't give a shit about autonomy. I'm personally a fan of that being a separate cost/option that's not baked into the default sticker price. I never really liked the idea of subsidizing anything beyond adaptive cruise control. Anything short of L3 is more or less a mistake to implement because humans are terribly complacent creatures and most definitely will be at fault when there's a price to be paid for a lapse in attention.

 

[JetSpeed]

A screenshot from my own Model S order:

Also see https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/958/tesla-fsd-price-increase-history:

Before 2019 FSD was an add-on that required also buying Enhanced Autopilot. Enhanced Autopilot cost $5,000 and FSD was a $3,000 option on top of that if ordered with the vehicle. If you ordered FSD after taking delivery then it cost $4,000, which later went up to $5,000.​

That was on top of $5000 Autopilot so total out the door was $8000. I paid $5000 for Autopilot on my 2018 Model 3 and then added FSD on top for $2000, so $7000 for the whole package.

I had forgotten about this. Here is my Model 3 order from 04/2019. Just a stand alone $6k option.

 

[NinjaWrap]

I had forgotten about this. Here is my Model 3 order from 04/2019. Just a stand alone $6k option.

Yep I got mine May 2019

 

[rbdavis808]

More frustrated that there were no numbers. What was the internal expectations. What is the actual numbers?

I have not been closely following reports on the estimated order invite timeframes of late, but my last understanding was that the latest estimates reported here were February '27. Wouldn't they be building the 30,000th or so R2 around then, and wasn't the total reservation queue something well over 200,000?

 

[babylou]

If they want people to buy it they won’t raise it. That’s a big reason Tesla only has a 15% take rate despite how good FSD is. My wife doesn’t want to add $99 on top of her $395 lease payment on her new Y. I’ve heard many people say the same about price.

This is very misleading. The 15% is derived from the entire sales history of Tesla. FSD has only become good this year. Take rates for FSD in 2026 are near 50%. The price for used Tesla vehicles is drastically different for hardware 3 versus hardware 4 simply because the latest FSD needs HW4.

 

[NinjaWrap]

This is very misleading. The 15% is derived from the entire sales history of Tesla. FSD has only become good this year. Take rates for FSD in 2026 are near 50%. The price for used Tesla vehicles is drastically different for hardware 3 versus hardware 4 simply because the latest FSD needs HW4.

That is not true. It was just last summer/fall that Lars and Franz confirmed take rate had finally crossed to double digits

if you mean the statement that over 55% of Q2 deliveries included active subscriptions, of course, because FSD trial is included in new cars in places FSD is available. That isn’t continuing paid subscriptions. Elon’s pay package is dependent on paid subscriptions so you’d know it if it hit any milestone.

last official number was 1.5 million paid subscribers globally as of end of Q2 which is just 15%. and that could be one month subscription paid like my wife’s after we used up credits and forgot to cancel. Then she canceled because she doesn’t want to pay $99/month. Others I know subscribe just for a long trip.

even Elon’s baby grok says it’s in the low to mid teens still total and only talking about hw4 in North America it’s low or mid 20s. If they dropped the price to $49 I know they’d get way over 50%.

 

[babylou]

That is not true. It was just last summer/fall that Lars and Franz confirmed take rate had finally crossed to double digits

if you mean the statement that over 55% of Q2 deliveries included active subscriptions, of course, because FSD trial is included in new cars in places FSD is available. That isn’t continuing paid subscriptions. Elon’s pay package is dependent on paid subscriptions so you’d know it if it hit any milestone.

last official number was 1.5 million paid subscribers globally as of end of Q2 which is just 15%. and that could be one month subscription paid like my wife’s after we used up credits and forgot to cancel. Then she canceled because she doesn’t want to pay $99/month. Others I know subscribe just for a long trip.

even Elon’s baby grok says it’s in the low to mid teens still total and only talking about hw4 in North America it’s low or mid 20s. If they dropped the price to $49 I know they’d get way over 50%.

Tesla has sold 10 million vehicles over their entire history. They have 1.5 million subscribers. 1.5/10 = 15%. That is exactly what I stated!

I just looked and ~4.2M Teslas have ever been sold in nations with FSD approval. This doesn't inlcude China since they have only gave partial approval a couple months ago. Some of those 4.2M surely are retired. Most are HW3 or older.

Tesla FSD with HW4 is a game changer. Hopefully, Rivian gets there soon.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Why is that frustrating to you? It's just inside baseball.

But I'll play along and say... 11. 11 was their internal estimate.

Because 1) I like numbers and my neurodivergence likes things to be precise and clear otherwise I hyper fixate for a solution or exact meaning. Yes, it can be as annoying as that sounds. 2) I want to see the company do well. I want to be excited with them. Hiding the numbers in corporate speak usually means its not something investors want to here or will think negatively of and not being clear with the numbers can lead to speculation that it may not be good.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Because RJ lies or makes things up. “We investigated ourselves and found out we were right.”

I wouldn't say he lies. We don't know the numbers or the situation so I would be careful to make assumptions. But word choice wise, their internal numbers could have been "well lidar has been delayed so no one will want it. So we expect 1 out of 50,000 people to convert to lunch edition, so 10 people." And then they get 15 people. It exceeds expectations, they didn't lie, but 15 out of 50,000 isn't good either. We all know that probably isn't the conversion rate, but it doesn't instill confidence when they keep hiding reservation numbers and conversation rates to not mislead or lie to the public while protecting themselves. I know its standard business and they really can't take a hit to their stocks but still frustrating.

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